00:00In the forecast feed, we want to take a bit of a deeper dive into a frequently stormy pattern that
00:06will emerge into the Midwest. And we've been talking with some of our forecast updates about
00:11the specifics regarding severe thunderstorms through the weekend, here and there, in various
00:16parts of the central U.S. But I want to take kind of a slightly bigger picture view into next
00:20week
00:21at potential for some flash flooding and just the reason behind this repetitively stormy pattern
00:27that's going to emerge here into the Midwest. And into next week here, as we kind of pull the map
00:33out a little bit, it's not just the Midwest. There will be periods of time when the interior northeast
00:37gets in on some scattered, drenching thunderstorms and localized flash flooding will be a concern.
00:43You can see we're also mentioning locally severe storms at times, travel disruptions. But again,
00:49we've got a lot of issues to contend with. And I'm most concerned about areas around Chicago,
00:53the third biggest city in the country, facing some big problems here and there.
00:58So let's get into it with the modeling to show you what's going on. And as we move through the
01:04weekend, we do have a trough in the atmosphere moving through. And that's sparking some scattered
01:09storms of its own, kind of just setting the table for some trouble. And then later in the weekend,
01:17there's a lower amplitude. It's not very deep. It doesn't go that far south, but it's a low
01:21amplitude trough that then follows with another round of storms. That's going to be enough to
01:25scare up some scattered storms on Sunday. And then behind that, you can see a little bit of a
01:32lobe of lower pressure that begins to kind of wobble south from the Hudson Bay. And that's going to lead
01:38to a situation where we have stronger dynamics Tuesday night into Wednesday, stronger winds aloft,
01:46a tighter temperature contrast. This is up against an area with tremendous high pressure over the
01:51southwest. So it's a little bit of a squeeze play. When you get a bubble of cold air and
01:55some persistent warmth, and you draw that bubble of colder air aloft a little closer to the warmth
02:00and the heat, you begin to see some more trouble. So it's this wobbling. I'll clear it off again so
02:06you can see. It's a wobbling southwestward here, that pouch where you see the 552 thickness line,
02:13basically just a signature of the colder air aloft, beginning to push out a little bit of a hint of
02:19September up there into parts of Ontario. That's Tuesday night, Wednesday morning. And then that
02:24wobbles east through Quebec. But as we look at this from another perspective, here's the European
02:29model. That was the GFS. The European model, it's not quite as dramatic, but you can see a signature
02:34of this front. I'm going to draw it here and just connect the dots as this trough here. It's a
02:43signature
02:44hinting at more of the same, even though it may not be as dramatic. And that would be a couple
02:48days later.
02:48But in both cases, you have at least somewhat of a south and eastward shift of that bubble of colder
02:56air aloft that will help to bring more storms through the Midwest and into parts of the interior
03:01northeast. So if we just take it at face value, you can see this is the precipitation forecast. I'll
03:06step you through Friday evening, Friday night in the Midwest, Saturday evening, Saturday night in the
03:12northeast, a little break there into parts of the Midwest. Sunday, it returns to areas around
03:18Wisconsin. That's the GFS. And here we could take a look at the European. Similar signature. Details
03:24are different, but the general signature is similar with storms moving through parts of the Midwest,
03:31Michigan down to Illinois. Not in all areas, but in some of those areas. Then into Monday and Tuesday.
03:36Remember, this is Tuesday into Wednesday when that bubble of cooler air begins to sag south. It begins
03:41to see a little bit more noise there into Wisconsin, down into Nebraska Tuesday night. That's the GFS.
03:47Here's the European for that same time frame. Storms in some parts of Iowa. Then we go into the
03:54latter part of the week. Wednesday into Thursday. The Ohio Valley is a favorite spot for storms in
03:58the GFS. In the European, the Ohio Valley, also a favorite spot for storms. So we're going to see
04:04these repetitive storms here and there. And when we kind of highlight the areas of lift in the
04:10atmosphere, the bright colors, here's Friday evening. Plenty of storms there to parts of the plains
04:17and into the Midwest. Saturday, some scattered storms in the Northeast and parts of that I-70
04:23corridor. Sunday, you can see that area around Wisconsin and Iowa highlighted with some scattered
04:28storm potential. And the wind signatures that you see on here, these little wind barbs,
04:34those are showing us the shear, the wind shear between the surface at about six kilometers up
04:41into the atmosphere. So we're looking at moderate wind shear Sunday night into parts of the Midwest
04:49coupled with some lift. So that could lead to some severe weather in that area. And then into early
04:54parts of next week, you can see still a lot of instability. It does get suppressed a little farther
04:58south, but we're going to be watching for some storms in a repetitive fashion. So we're looking at
05:03damaging wind with most of the storms, limited tornado threat, mainly damaging winds and flash
05:08flooding. Just taking us through this whole, kind of blurring all this together here, multiple
05:13disturbances, one after the other. You can see that by Wednesday night and Thursday, there are,
05:19the GFS would show north of Chicago, areas around Milwaukee, potential for two to four inches of rain for
05:28some, and also a zone here with three, four inches of rain for others down into parts of Southern Ohio
05:35and West Virginia. That didn't lead to flash flooding. It's a problem there in West Virginia. Let's go to
05:40the European, the European model. It highlights Southeast Iowa, and then it's a little less
05:47aggressive in Wisconsin, but it does also highlight parts of, of Indiana and Ohio. Hey, I wanted to save
05:53just about a minute on the back end of this to step away from the U.S., and let's go
05:58to China. This is
06:00Typhoon Dolphin, and it's moving through the area of, of Japan early Friday. Not primary Japan, but
06:09mainly Okinawa. So the Okinawa Prefecture is way south of the bulk of Japan, but still over a million
06:15people live there. Uh, and, uh, Okinawa is going to be hit, uh, as the weekends, but then we look
06:21at
06:21China, and this storm is going to be moving into China as a typhoon, uh, strengthening, uh, well, I
06:27should say in a weakening state. It has been through its strengthening, and now it's going to be losing
06:30wind energy, and it may either be a typhoon or a tropical storm when it hits China. Um, at least
06:36Eastern time, it'd be 2 p.m. Eastern on Sunday. So we'll close with a quick look at the I
06:41-Path,
06:41AccuWeather's I-Path for this storm, uh, as a typhoon moving through the, uh, prefecture of, uh, of Okinawa.
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