00:00In the forecast feed, we've got lots to talk about here. We are talking about showers and
00:03thunderstorms bringing a flood risk to parts of the east. And just before we get into the details,
00:09a little preview, maybe a summer preview here for the upcoming next few days here. Let's take you
00:15into a couple of three-day forecasts here. Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Now this area, you're going
00:20to notice we look good in most areas here in Cape Cod. Generally drier among the beach locations.
00:26This may be one of the drier spots. Let's go down the coast though, down into Atlantic City.
00:31It's going to be a little hot down this way, low 90s. Maybe a straight evening thunderstorm. We'll
00:37keep an eye on the sky. It's going to be pretty steamy though. And some areas are going to be
00:42sweating it out in the northeast. So a little bit of a heat wave there. And then you get down
00:46to
00:46Hilton Head, South Carolina, near Savannah, Georgia. Scattered storms will be around. We're going to
00:51talk about some of these changes in the trends with a surge of moisture that you'll notice we are
00:57primarily highlighting areas. And again, we're intentional about this. Inland. That's where the
01:03deepest green is. That's where we've got the best shot for thunderstorms. It'll be more persistent
01:07Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. So again, we highlighted a few areas that might be maybe some
01:12diamonds in the rough here where we're going to sneak through a little drier there. Places like Cape
01:17Cod and Atlantic City. But again, there will be some activity at times near there. But the more
01:24frequent showers and storms will be across the interior. Let's look at some modeling here. And
01:28then we'll get into our severe weather risk area. It's not a big one, but there are two areas we're
01:34highlighting for severe weather threats on Friday. So overall, first glance, what jumps out to me when
01:40I see this is, I'm just going to show you the big ridge of high pressure across the southwest. There's
01:47the large heat dome. There's also the Bermuda Azores High to the east, kind of hanging out behind my head
01:55there. It's off to the east of Cape Hatteras. Other features on the map, we've got a disturbance and there
02:02is a front associated with this moving into the upper Midwest Thursday night. A couple of weak
02:07disturbances also over the interior, just enough to scare up some additional lift in the atmosphere. And
02:13again, there's a disturbance off to the northwest that's going to be mainly riding over the ridge that
02:19won't really have a payoff there for the northwest. If anything, it actually may produce a little more
02:23wind. Moving forward in time, though, you'll notice the base of this trough that's initially anchored,
02:29here's the trough axis into the central part of the nation. Look where it goes into the weekend. Here we
02:36are
02:36Saturday night, Sunday morning. It flattens out a little bit, so it's not terribly deep, but it does
02:42begin to favor this area here across the interior northeast. And overall, it doesn't take a deep
02:48trough to produce thunderstorms when you have high heat and humidity. And we're going to be dealing with
02:53a significant moisture surge. By the way, one thing that doesn't change during this whole time frame
02:57is that big ridge of high pressure. At least it remains generally in place across much of the west.
03:03Midwest. So let's take you into some of the specifics. Now, with that trough moving through
03:10the Midwest, the one that I highlighted for early Friday, that's this guy here producing some of
03:16these spotty showers and thunderstorms. That would be Friday morning till around 2 p.m. You go into the
03:22evening, suddenly you see some brighter colors here, slightly heavier precipitation. There's potential
03:28for a few gusty thunderstorms out there as that trough pushes into Wisconsin, Michigan, and perhaps into
03:33Iowa. But also, with the broad troughiness crossing across the interior northeast, look at all the
03:40shower and thunderstorm action. You can see why I didn't want to promise dry weather for Atlantic
03:44City or Cape Cod, or Cape May, I should say, at least in the evening. Daytime weather looks okay
03:50Friday, Friday evening, Friday night. I would expect a thunderstorm or two on Friday evening
03:54for the Jersey shores. You're getting down there, heading down the shore, as they say, from Philadelphia
03:58down to the Jersey shore. Maybe heading down south from New York City to Long Beach Island.
04:03Generally dry Friday afternoon, but Friday evening you may encounter a thunderstorm.
04:07Saturday, we got some more unsettled weather across the interior northeast. I'm just scanning
04:13through a few different models for Saturday midday into the afternoon and evening. Friday,
04:18Saturday midday into the afternoon and evening with the NAMM, a little drier for areas south of New
04:24York. And then the GFS, midday Saturday afternoon and evening. New England gets in on some of that
04:30as well. And then Sunday, more of the same. This trough just hangs out. It doesn't look like a
04:35widespread batch. Saturday may be more widespread than Sunday in the northeast, but still with some
04:41high humidity in place and a weak trough in the neighborhood, you can see the variety. GFS,
04:46Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening and night. Pittsburgh, for example, could see some storms.
04:51European, Sunday midday, Sunday afternoon, not too disruptive, Sunday night. Some drier weather
04:58begins to set in. So overall, here's the cape and sheer. Cape, the colored zones here showing where
05:05we have lift in the atmosphere, where we have the fuel for thunderstorms. Those wind barbs there
05:12are a look at wind sheer. And what I want to show you is that there are many, many areas
05:16with lift in
05:17the atmosphere on Friday. A lot of areas here where there will be updrafts and where moisture is
05:23present, spotty thunderstorms. But the wind sheer is limited. These little wind barbs showing 10 knots
05:31over North Carolina. Maybe a little more sheer into parts of Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas on Friday evening,
05:38but very limited sheer farther east. Sheer picks up a little bit in the northeast on Saturday,
05:44maybe a few gusty storms. But I don't think we're going to see a whole lot of tornadic potential.
05:49It's mainly wind and flash flooding. In fact, the flash flooding may be a result of the lack of
05:53wind aloft. I also wanted to point this out, where we have this big Bermuda high. And around the base
05:59of this, we're going to bring out the arrow. Picture clockwise rotation. This is going to be driving lots
06:06of moisture into the southeastern U.S. So that's a big factor there as well. It's going to be humid.
06:11The dew points are ramping back up Thursday. Dew points of 70 plus, maybe even 75 degree dew points
06:17in a few spots in the northeast near the Chesapeake Bay. It's Friday and Saturday. Very humid out there.
06:22So what do we do with all of that? I'm going to characterize this with a couple of graphics.
06:27Friday, there will be some drenching thunderstorms moving into the I-95 in the afternoon and evening.
06:32Flash flooding and straight line winds will be the main concern. Secondary disturbance entering the
06:38Midwest at the same time could bring some gusty storms to Iowa and Wisconsin. We saw that with
06:43the models. Final graphic here. Frequent downpours this weekend southwest of the Bermuda high in the
06:49southeast.
Comments