00:00When you're on the forecast feed, we want to take a look at almost like the tide.
00:04The moisture exits most of the northeast for a brief time, Tuesday into early Wednesday,
00:10and then it begins to surge back north.
00:12So it's been a wet time here lately, and man, what a couple of rain events we had.
00:18This is a look at the past seven days.
00:20This captures that midweek deluge that we had up into places like Albany, New York,
00:25where there were reports of 7 to 10 inches of rain in some areas.
00:28But it also includes the rainfall from the past weekend, Sunday into Monday.
00:34That has still been wrapping up.
00:35Kind of a cool thing, since this is a seven-day stretch.
00:38Take a look at this. It's almost like this crosshatch-type signature.
00:42You can see the path that some south-southwest to north-northeast moving storms took into parts of Ohio.
00:48And then during other regimes, you can see the path that some storms that were moving northwest to southeast took
00:53across the region.
00:54And again, some of this is maybe not an issue or artifact of radar data.
01:01Sometimes you'll see little spikes and streaks because of radar spikes leading to some erroneous measurements or estimates of rainfall.
01:09But in this case, because we're looking at seven days, storms moving at different vectors, it kind of gives us
01:14that interesting pattern.
01:15But man, we had a lot of rain across the northeast.
01:18And by the way, the drought's not officially over in some areas.
01:22Now, this map I'm going to show you includes data through last Tuesday.
01:26It doesn't include all of that because a lot of that fell on Wednesday across the Albany area.
01:33And then this map came out last Thursday.
01:35So the new update this Thursday is going to show probably the end of the drought there for most of
01:42us from Albany southward.
01:44Maybe a couple of areas near the Taconics may be still dry when it comes to groundwater.
01:48But man, we've made a lot of progress in many areas.
01:50We've been chipping away at the drought for sure.
01:52And we could use a break in the action now where we're enjoying a drier trend tonight through Tuesday.
01:59Let's take a look at the dew point trend here.
02:01Here we have our GFS model, the NAM, and the European.
02:08And what I want you to see is, in general, you can expect that the drier air is represented there
02:13in that brown shade.
02:16And we're not going to see truly dry air reach the northeast here.
02:21But we're going to get drier.
02:23And the front is going to suppress the moisture southward.
02:27In fact, I could draw the front on here.
02:29And you can even see the wind kind of highlighting the converging wind directions there.
02:35And overall, to the south, we still have flow from the south offshore.
02:38You're going to have high humidity.
02:39But the dew point is going to drop down below 60 for a time early Tuesday in New York City.
02:44The dew point will be in the upper 50.
02:46So it won't feel as humid.
02:48If we had this in March, we might say it's kind of humid.
02:51But in the middle of the summer, it's not going to feel humid to us anymore because it's all relative.
02:55It's about where we've been.
02:57And we're going to get a little break.
02:59But you'll notice the high humidity never really exits southern parts of Virginia.
03:05You're going to get a subtle break in the humidity in D.C.
03:08But, man, in the NAM, you can see Tuesday afternoon the 65-degree dew point line still north of Richmond,
03:15Virginia.
03:15So the high humidity lingers down near Richmond and Williamsburg and Virginia Beach.
03:20And then a new disturbance pulls north.
03:23And you can see the humidity begins to eke northward again.
03:26And when you get into that sea green here, that's really humid air here.
03:30That is when we get up into 70-degree dew points.
03:33And that's what Pittsburgh, or at least areas just south of Pittsburgh, down near Harrisburg as well, in southeast Pennsylvania,
03:39south-central PA, will be experiencing on Wednesday.
03:41So it's going to get humid again on Wednesday into Thursday.
03:44And we only get a brief break.
03:45So here's the big picture.
03:47And one of the influences in this next surge of moisture coming north will be a couple of things.
03:53One thing that caught my eye is just how the vorticity, these little areas of spin in the atmosphere, begin
04:02to eke northward once again.
04:04There's a weak area of low pressure over not far from Atlanta.
04:08And that's imparting this weak circulation.
04:12It's not strong circulation, but it is kind of nudging the moisture northward again.
04:16So it acts like a little bit of a moisture pump.
04:18And by Wednesday, any break from the humidity that we will have experienced is going to be exiting.
04:23And we've got moisture convergence from the west as well because, look at this, we have a front moving on
04:30in.
04:31I want to get back to, say, Wednesday.
04:33You can see there is a disturbance moving through parts of the Midwest.
04:37And that's going to be slinging some moisture back into the northeast as well.
04:40So we kind of have moisture coming in from multiple angles.
04:43And another influence here on the western fringe of the Bermuda High, which is way out there.
04:50Look at this little pesky disturbance that begins to come back in.
04:54See this thing?
04:55That's not going to be an organized system, but it is a disturbance.
04:58It flings extra moisture into the Carolina coast.
05:00And that begins to eke northward and gets diverted near the mid-Atlantic coast again into the weekend.
05:04So here it is in the European.
05:06It's not as definitive, but it is a weak feature that does sling in here.
05:11There it is, this little thing near Hatteras.
05:14So again, it's just one more influence and a little more moisture coming to the mid-Atlantic coast here into
05:18the out period, into the weekend.
05:20So what's that look like when it comes to actual precipitation?
05:22Looking at our computer modeling here.
05:24Here's the GFS.
05:26And Tuesday, you can see, I'm going to draw the front on here.
05:29We get a nice break.
05:31In fact, if I draw this, I'm going to draw this as a stationary front.
05:34Because for argument's sake, you know, it was a cold front, but then it kind of pushes pause.
05:39And it buys us just a little bit of drying there.
05:42Baltimore, you should be dry.
05:43Wilmington, Delaware, probably dry.
05:45Philly, New York, you're probably dry on Tuesday.
05:48But to the south, we've got storms popping still to the south.
05:50And then it ekes north, some of those reasons I mentioned earlier, and it begins to slide back in.
05:56Are we going to see much severe weather?
05:58Probably not.
05:59Probably not.
05:59And I say that because looking at the northeast, this is a combination of CAPE, convective available potential energy, the
06:05shaded colors there.
06:06That's lift.
06:07That's updraft potential there.
06:09Fuel for updrafts.
06:10And there's plenty of that for storms.
06:12It doesn't take much this time of the year.
06:13But those little wind barbs there are indicating maybe 20 to 30 knots of wind shear.
06:19That's pretty modest.
06:20Some areas even less than that.
06:22So there won't be a whole lot of wind changing direction with height.
06:26So I wouldn't expect much widespread severe storms.
06:30The storms will become severe at times, but we're not expecting a tornado outbreak.
06:34Just classic late summer heat and humidity.
06:37Showers and storms do surge north in the second half of the work week.
06:42And here's a look at that late week forecast.
06:44Ohio Valley, much of the Midwest, southeast facing showers and storms as we close out the week.
06:49And that is your forecast feed.
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