00:00We're going to take a look into early parts of next week, early to midweek next week,
00:04this coming work week. I'm really concerned about flooding, and our forecast team increasingly
00:09concerned as well about flooding in parts of the Ohio Valley and into the central Appalachians.
00:15We're looking at a stripe around Ohio, northeast Kentucky, into West Virginia,
00:19maybe southwest Pennsylvania, repetitive rounds of thunderstorms. There's a lot of
00:23moisture in the atmosphere right now, and we're going to stay in this position here.
00:28Overall, the early part of next week, just kind of a big picture view.
00:32This is the zone where these rounds of thunderstorms are going to be tracking,
00:36and it's kind of tangentially associated with this big ridge of high pressure aloft
00:43that has been leading to the heat dome. We're going to see a shift in the west with more monsoon,
00:48a little less heat there, fewer records, but the worst of the heat will begin to break down.
00:54Still, fire danger will persist to the north of all that. So I want to jump in with some computer
00:59models, and then we're going to show you what our forecast team is doing with this.
01:04We'll highlight a few severe weather risk days, and then also especially the flood concerns that
01:09are kind of number one. As we begin, I just wanted to trace the perimeter of the 594 height line.
01:16This is this big zone of very warm air aloft, and that's the upper level ridge around the northern
01:24periphery of that. We've got the fire risk area. We have these disturbances rotating through under the
01:29base of the trough over the Hudson Bay. A couple little disturbances, and they're bringing us
01:34opportunities for strong thunderstorms. So as we go forward to Tuesday, you'll notice the 594
01:41line. Just to keep it apples to apples, I'm going to stay with the European. It constricts a bit. Now,
01:47we go to the GFS. It's still big, but it changes character. And apples to apples, you can see even
01:54in the European. That was the GFS I was looking at. The European starts centered over the southwest,
02:00and as it begins to constrict and move a little bit farther east into Wednesday, it begins to center over
02:07Texas as opposed to, say, Las Vegas. So we're going to see some changes in the southwest, but along with
02:13that, there will be a shift in the storm track, and we're going to continue to see, and we'll begin
02:18to see
02:18increasingly rounds of thunderstorms pivot, not just up into the Great Lakes, but also down into the Ohio Valley
02:25and parts of the central Appalachians. So overall, you can see these ripples of energy. Here's one
02:31Tuesday, for example. It's not a deep trough, but it takes so little to get these storms going when
02:35the high humidity is present. There's plenty of fuel, heat, and humidity in advance of this, and that's
02:41one of the disturbances Tuesday is going to bring flooding to some in Ohio and West Virginia. So here's
02:46the big picture aloft, kind of simplifying the map a little bit, looking all the way up to the strong
02:52winds, the jet stream winds, around 300 millibars up there, all the way up to 200 millibars up. We're
02:57looking about 30,000 feet up into the atmosphere, and you can see this upper level ridge in the
03:02southwest. It begins to flatten a little bit, and then we see more jet stream energy associated with
03:09these disturbances crossing the upper Midwest and moving into the Great Lakes. That's going to inject
03:13more lift into the atmosphere. The dynamics that will be driving these storms will be a little more
03:19numerous and present, and you can see one, these little influxes in those magenta colors,
03:25stronger winds, bursts of stronger wind with each of these passing disturbances, and every one of them
03:30next week will be delivering a new round of storms. The unusual nature of the heat in the west,
03:38near record highs in the interior west, begins to decrease a bit. It will still be hot into the 11th
03:43and the 12th, and then we actually have a cooler than normal signature breakout into the southwest,
03:48and the heat wave will certainly be over by then, but we're going to be dealing with some heat across
03:53the south central and southeastern U.S., and a bubble of cooler, slightly cooler than average air up into
03:59the eastern part of Canada, and that's the transition zone. The contrast between chillier than average
04:05versus hotter than average will be driving this active storm zone. There's no shortage of humidity.
04:12You get into this like teal color here, that's dew point of 70 plus into parts of Indiana, Illinois,
04:19southern parts of Michigan, and then the bright blue there over Indiana, that's a 75 plus degree dew
04:24point. That is very much subtropical air in place over the Ohio Valley, and that's still present through
04:30Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday, so it's multiple days, multiple days all week long with high humidity
04:37in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, so there's no shortage of moisture at any point in the week.
04:42If we go beyond the surface, that was just technically a forecast for two meters up, about six feet above
04:47the
04:47ground where we live. Let's go three-dimensionally up through the atmosphere, precipitable water. This is
04:53looking at, I know it's a little counterintuitive, but the yellows, oranges, and reds, that's high moisture
04:58content. And in a three-dimensional scale, there's a lot of moisture, and it increases into the Ohio
05:04Valley into midweek, so tremendous amounts of moisture will be present. And if we just look at
05:09the precipitation forecast, I'm just going to scoot through this because I wanted to show you the
05:13nature of it. Monday, you can see Indiana to Ohio. Tuesday, Tuesday night, Ohio, West Virginia.
05:20Wednesday, Ohio, West Virginia. Thursday, maybe a little farther south into Indiana, Kentucky,
05:25West Virginia, and Ohio, Thursday night. So the nature of these storms is going to be repetitive
05:29enough that if we go forward in time, here's the European, and this highlights a zone here,
05:35a little farther southeast, Iowa to West Virginia of three to four plus inches of rain. Let's look at
05:42the, that was the European. Let's look at the GFS. The GFS centered a little farther north, and through
05:48the next seven days, it highlights central Iowa, but more Ohio into western Pennsylvania. And I see a 6.4
05:55near Belle Fountain, Ohio, near the high point in the state. That's the, again, just comparing a little
06:01bit of variety there, but you get the message. The Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians, and then
06:07if you're curious, the northeast, the worst of this will be west of the spine of the mountains.
06:11GFS, GFS, European. Certainly more rain west of the spine of the mountains in West Virginia, western
06:18Pennsylvania. All right. So as we close this out here, let's get back to the graphics. Big picture, rounds
06:24of rain. Specifically, the downpours that we're most concerned about will bring flooding to western
06:31Pennsylvania, southwest PA, West Virginia, southeast Ohio, northern parts of Kentucky. I'm going to quickly end
06:37this with just a quick look at a few severe weather opportunities for damaging wind. Nebraska into
06:42Iowa Saturday evening and night, and then South Dakota to Chicago Sunday evening and Sunday night.
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