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00:00This is fun when this happens, or funny, or both, but just, you know, in my usual way,
00:07thinking about the show, ideas, topics, for some reason, I thought of asking you
00:16if you would take a first-round playoff game between the Bills and New England,
00:25and the Bills are home as the three seed, and New England is the six.
00:31But before I even ask you that, or had a chance to ask you that on the air,
00:36here comes USA Today's projections, which should be called predictions, like the records.
00:44Record projections? Is every prediction a projection now?
00:47Projection to me implies that you've run some number of thousands of simulations.
00:54They may have.
00:55Predictions is just kind of what we might do.
01:00You know, at least I'm assuming you're not running thousands of simulations before we might predict something.
01:06Sometimes.
01:06Just, you know, talking, that looks like a 10-win team to me.
01:09I don't know.
01:10But I think a projection implies work.
01:14That you had a computer do a bunch of work.
01:17I think that's how I take projection.
01:20So, what do you know?
01:23The Bills are the three, and the Patriots are the six.
01:2711 and six, 10 and seven.
01:29So, do you want to guess the rest?
01:31I mean, it's projections, not a prediction.
01:34So, it may be easier to predict a projection.
01:38I'm going to guess that they've got Houston above.
01:44Houston's the two or the one.
01:45I'm trying to sort of think this out here.
01:47Okay.
01:47I think Houston is above the Bills, and I will say Denver.
01:51That's right.
01:53So, Denver's the one.
01:54Houston's the two, is what I want to say.
01:57Which, I don't mind if we just spend a good chunk of time on those two teams.
02:02And, like, I've wanted to take Denver under the hood all week.
02:07Because here they are in first in the reverse AFC, the hallowed reverse AFC power rankings.
02:14Third week in a row, number one.
02:15Like, does that hold water?
02:17Should Denver, is Denver, like, a deserving number one?
02:23They were number one last year.
02:24Yeah.
02:25So, maybe that means necessarily they are.
02:27I don't think that necessarily means they are, but they haven't.
02:31I don't think they haven't.
02:32I don't think they've lost much.
02:34They've added Waddle.
02:37Knicks with another year in the system.
02:40They've gotten a lot of credit for, like, having a fantastic roster.
02:44And their stability there.
02:46The defense is still the same, right?
02:48I mean, Jim Leonard left, but he wasn't their coordinator.
02:50That's Vance Joseph, I think, right?
02:52Um, so, another year with a lot of the same personnel, familiarity in the system.
03:01Like, I don't think it's nuts.
03:03Like, to me, it's not.
03:04I don't think they're number one because they were one last year.
03:08I think they have an excellent roster.
03:11And there's a lot of continuity there.
03:13So, and Waddle should be something that can help them pop even more in their passing game.
03:22He's limping, though.
03:23Yeah, I heard.
03:24I heard that, yeah.
03:25Four or five days.
03:26I don't know.
03:27That's what I heard Sean Payton say.
03:28So, like, I'm not offended that they're projected at one to me.
03:33There are two on this.
03:35Oh, they are?
03:35Okay, sorry.
03:35Houston is one.
03:36Okay, Houston's one.
03:37All right, I think that's ridiculous.
03:39Aaron Schatz says Houston is one.
03:41I know.
03:42I mean, he says they're the best team.
03:44Yeah.
03:44Yeah, and the defense is irrefutably, to me, fantastic.
03:49You know, if it can't be trusted because defense can't be trusted, you just mentioned Aaron Schatz, year over year.
03:55I mean, the personnel is ridiculous.
03:57They've got top-shelf personnel at all layers of that defense, including two, like, maybe the best pair of edge
04:05rushers in the game.
04:06So, this one is Houston 1, which means a bye week.
04:11Denver 2 against the 7, Baltimore.
04:17Buffalo 3 against the 6, New England.
04:20Cincinnati 4 against the 5, Kansas City.
04:24I mean, it looks pretty good on paper.
04:26Every one of those games is hot.
04:28Yeah.
04:29Projections, you know, to your earlier analysis of the word, projections is, if you're right, and I think you very
04:37well are,
04:38then you're not just one person's galaxy brain.
04:43Right.
04:44You know, oh, the Browns are 12 and 5.
04:46No, this is a group, a staff, maybe pooling their predictions and then running an algorithm or something as this
04:54falls to the ground.
04:56Lovely.
04:57Yeah.
04:58That's what I would hope using projection instead of predictions would be.
05:03So, nothing stupid happens with projections.
05:05Right.
05:06Right.
05:07So, how does this sound?
05:12Um, I mean, it doesn't sound great, but it sounds pretty, pretty great.
05:19Uh, if that, if that, if that.
05:21You wouldn't take it?
05:22No, I, I think I would.
05:23You would take it?
05:24I think I would, yeah.
05:25Would you take 11 and 6 and the 3 seed?
05:28I had.
05:29Does it matter who you're playing?
05:30Not really.
05:34Um, I don't remember why this would have come up.
05:38I feel like someone was in the room with me, but it wasn't you.
05:43And I, or maybe it was just, I was just talking to myself, uh, one day that you were away
05:48and I sort of stumbled into, I think I have to, I think I have to say yes to 11
05:55and 6.
05:56Um.
05:5711 and 6.
05:58A few things.
05:59Let me just unpack a couple things quickly.
06:01I, I've said for years now, 12 and 5 is a great year.
06:05You've had a great year if you go 12 and 5.
06:07So, 11 and 6 is not 12 and 5.
06:09It's not, it's not undeniably a great year.
06:12But in a year where you have had the changeover you've had, uh, head coach, defense, personnel, we'll see what
06:24that is going to be.
06:24The schedule, the schedule, all of it.
06:28You know, I, I'm a little uneasy about, you know, just assuming everything goes, you know, like it has for
06:36the last nine years.
06:37You know, I think, I think changing the head coach can be a big deal and the defensive scheme, maybe
06:42even a bigger deal than the head coach.
06:45Um.
06:45So, you know, I, I've never thought that the bottom was going to fall out, but I feel like I
06:52would have, given that, that's sort of my, my mood.
06:55My, my mindset going in is sort of not just assuming, you know, I'm not thinking about the one seed.
07:04Um, and it doesn't mean they can't achieve it, but I just think it's, it's, it's, it's a, it's a
07:09heavy lift with all that new stuff.
07:11The conference is stronger than maybe it's been the whole time since the bills have been contenders.
07:17We were talking again yesterday, um, or the, or the day before with someone and you made the point that,
07:24you know, that's been made numerous times.
07:25It's not, it's not just the three teams at the top anymore.
07:28You know, we're talking about reverse AFC power rankings, maybe with Will Graves.
07:33Uh, it came up and how you get to like nine and it's just kind of throwing darts and it
07:39hasn't been like that the previous five years or so.
07:43So I think that, that means like maybe 11 and six is a, is, is a, is a really good
07:49job.
07:49I mean, you're not playing the entire conference.
07:51I know that that's not how it works, but I just think the competition is going to be stiffer.
07:56And so I think if I win the division and end up the three, I mean, to me, as much
08:05as the, having the one, the benefit of the rest and not having to expose yourself to injuries and stuff.
08:10And that has done the bills in, uh, it's been a part of what's done them in maybe many of
08:15these years.
08:16Um, I think I would still take it.
08:19I think I would say I'm a months away from finding out.
08:23Um, and I know I'm, what I'm giving up, which is the one.
08:27Um, I think I would take 11 and six.
08:29I win the division.
08:30I don't have to sweat the playoffs maybe as much because it's not like we're running away with it at
08:3511 and six.
08:35It's going to be competitive down to the wire probably with new England.
08:39And, but if I'm coming out on top there, I think I would take it.
08:43I don't think one has to say yes to that deal, that offer, but I think it's reasonable to do
08:50so.
08:51And I'm thinking about all the different times and I, every time I think of it or refer to it,
08:59I feel a little bit like I'm copping out or it might sound like I am.
09:03And I really don't mean to be, but that the whole thing comes down to those moments in the playoffs,
09:09unless I might've even said this yesterday, unless you can run away from people, which even Kansas city has not
09:18done that.
09:18I mean, their playoff years, including a couple of bills games, of course, are very tight.
09:24So that doesn't seem likely at all.
09:28You want to get in and then you just want to be on time and make those plays and make
09:34those play calls.
09:34And maybe you draw the Broncos and their quarterback broke his ankle last week or something, you know, just, you
09:40kind of, there's some luck.
09:43And that's what I mean.
09:44Like, it just feels a little bit short for analysis, but I think they probably should make it.
09:51If you were to throw up in the air, the one seed versus missing the playoffs and sort of like,
09:59all right, well, do I take the three?
10:02Do I need to guarantee that a playoff spot, even a home game, or do I want to take my
10:10chances at the one, you know, the chargers miss in this projection, the Jaguars miss in this projection, that point
10:19about the power rankings.
10:20Yeah.
10:21Like two teams we think are good are not going to make it.
10:24But the Bills have what should be an advantage, and maybe also do the Jaguars, their own division.
10:32And, you know, like, would you take anything less than five and one from the Bills and the AFC East?
10:40No.
10:41So five and one.
10:43With the schedule they have outside of the division, I feel like if they're going to have an 11 win,
10:49or if you want to think about it, you got to win.
10:52And you got to split with New England and sweep those other four.
10:55Okay.
10:56So that would be six and five against everybody else.
11:00And as good as any schedule, as daunting as any schedule might be, that's not great.
11:04I mean, that's okay.
11:06You're treading water against the rest of the league.
11:08The NFC North, the Ravens, the Texans, the Rams, the Chiefs.
11:13Like, that's what's out there.
11:15I mean, the entire AFC West, actually.
11:17But still, like, you're six and five against the rest of it.
11:20Doesn't seem that good.
11:23So there's maybe an argument for passing on 11 and six, because if you get the five and one in
11:29the AFC East, then can I do better than six wins against the rest of my schedule?
11:34Maybe.
11:3512 and five, just whatever this is, the projections from USA Today, 12 and five is the top record.
11:42And that's an interesting thing, because if you're thinking about the one seed, all right, well, I'm the Bills.
11:49I win 11 or 12.
11:51I have my typical year, which, to this point, has not been good enough for the one.
11:56It's been close.
11:58Didn't they win 13 when Kansas City got the one two years ago with 15 and two or whatever that
12:04was?
12:0515 and one going to that last game that they threw.
12:07Yep.
12:08So maybe if – maybe the question about the one seed is, is there a team in the rest of
12:15the AFC that you think will just run the table?
12:18I mean, Denver got to 14 wins last year.
12:21New England even got to 14 wins last year.
12:24Cincinnati here at 11.
12:26Baltimore here at 10.
12:27Kansas City here at 11.
12:28Houston at 12.
12:2912, the division should afford – the rest of it is, I think, overall harder.
12:35But the division should afford the Bills and the Patriots, for that matter, some advantage if they can get four
12:43wins out of Miami and the Jets.
12:45And the Bills play those games, by the way.
12:48They play them back-to-back in the middle, and they play them back-to-back at the end.
12:53The Dolphins and the Jets.
12:54So those are those four games.
12:56But if you get those four games and split with New England, I'd take my chances – if I knew
13:01that, I would not take 11 and 6.
13:03Because then I think I can do better than 500 or just above 500 and the rest of it.
13:10Yeah.
13:11Yeah, I do think the AFC South is somewhat comparable, although I guess Indy is better than either the Jets
13:21or the Dolphins.
13:22According to this thing, they both are.
13:24Okay.
13:24Tennessee and Indianapolis.
13:26I mean, I'm bullish on Cam Ward, but I mean, I don't think that's – they're not in the hunt,
13:32I don't think.
13:33You love Cam Ward.
13:34Yes, I do.
13:36So, yeah, I think that – I don't think Houston and Jacksonville have really any advantage that the Bills or
13:45Patriots don't have within their division.
13:48In fact, I think maybe the Bills and Patriots have it easier than both the Texans and the Jaguars.
13:55Both of those teams, I think – like, Houston, I'm not a believer.
14:01I think there's a lot of excuse-making for Stroud, and it's possible that he gets it all back together.
14:09But I don't know.
14:10What is that?
14:11Like, is he better than Trevor Lawrence?
14:14Even – like, I don't know.
14:18You know, the defense, again, looks incredible.
14:21There's no question about that.
14:25Man, the one seed for them is a lot for me to deal with.
14:30Stroud is a big wild card in this.
14:33It may be the biggest wild card in the league.
14:36Of all players.
14:36Yeah, because if he is, you know, whatever.
14:42If he gets to, like, the Herbert tier, even – I don't even know if there's a Herbert tier.
14:49You know, I was thinking about visiting the Herbert tier.
14:52If he gets –
14:52The library section.
14:53I don't think he's challenging to get into the upper echelon,
14:56but if he's firmly in the group behind the top, you know, Lamar and Allen and Mahomes,
15:03if he's in that, you know, three through eight range, they might be really great.
15:10I mean, I've not studied their schedule.
15:13Houston.
15:14Houston.
15:14They could be really good.
15:16I mean, the rest of it looks pretty tasty.
15:19Yeah, I don't know what to do there.
15:21I mean, the stats on him – last year was his best year ever for completion percentage,
15:28but really, that's splitting hairs.
15:30The three years he's been in the league, that's been all about the same, between 63% and 64%.
15:34What else has happened, though, and he missed three games last year.
15:38He missed two as a rookie, though.
15:40As a rookie, he threw for 4,100 yards, then 3,700, then last year 3,041.
15:47Like, that was a big drop last year.
15:50And, okay, well, this or that.
15:52Offensive line.
15:54Receiver injuries.
15:55That's right.
15:56They lost Collins for a chunk of the season.
15:58They lost Tank Dell for all of it.
16:01You know, Mixon didn't play at all last year.
16:03He was probably the plan to be there running back, and he didn't play at all.
16:07I think he's probably done.
16:08So, yeah, he's a big one.
16:10I just wonder, you know, we do these power rankings because – yes, because they're hugely popular.
16:16Let's just say – admit that.
16:18But that's one reason why we do them.
16:19Also because they're sponsored.
16:21Got to give the people what they want and the sponsors what they want.
16:24Yes.
16:25But I think also it would be interesting to sort of open up the room to, like, who is the
16:31team – who's scary?
16:33Right.
16:34You know?
16:34Like, you think Cincinnati is scary.
16:37And their schedule is pretty soft.
16:40And if you got what you – if you're Cincinnati and you got what you wanted from Pittsburgh and Cleveland,
16:45which would be – if they were some – if they showed some resemblance to the Dolphins and Jets, like
16:52those are four wins.
16:53That never happens.
16:55Right?
16:56That never happens.
16:56But if it does, if Pittsburgh is bad and Cincinnati's good, same with the Browns, then you just can plant
17:04four wins and then split with Baltimore, do the same thing we're talking about.
17:08Right.
17:09Where you're five and one, can I go seven and four against the rest of it?
17:13The Bengals are in pretty good shape to do that.
17:15Yep.
17:16If they're that good because of who they play.
17:18Because they're playing the AFC South and they're playing the NFC South.
17:21I mean, that's – that's pretty nice.
17:23Yeah.
17:24So, it could be them.
17:25It could be Baltimore.
17:26Baltimore had that year, what, two or three years ago when they lost the AFC Championship game at home where
17:32they were in total control of the AFC, like, the whole year.
17:36Yep.
17:37And then maybe you could also see somebody from the AFC West doing that.
17:43But for that to happen, the other teams would have to slip.
17:47Like, you'd have to have – well, it happened last year.
17:50But you'd have to have, if it's Denver again, say, Kansas City to not be what they have once been
17:56and the Chargers.
17:57And then maybe then you get to 13 or 14 wins.
18:00Yeah.
18:01I know – one thing you're saying, though, is that the Bills' schedule outside of their division, of course, especially
18:11Miami and New York, is pretty serious.
18:15And for them to get the one, they're going to have to win eight games against Bears, Lions, Packers, Chiefs,
18:23Ravens, Texans, Rams, you know, that crowd.
18:26And that's not going to be easy.
18:28Yeah, to go eight and three with that and then you're five and one and you get to get to
18:3213 and four just seems like a really heavy lift to me this year.
18:38Which is why I'm a little more willing.
18:40Like, I think for – I don't know.
18:45Whenever it is we became obsessed with the one seed, which is probably when the Bills arrived as a contender
18:50and lost to Kansas City in that first AFC touchdown.
18:53Five years ago plus.
18:54So, I think at this time of the year, I mostly, in this kind of conversation, go like, yeah, no,
19:02I'm not taking anything.
19:05I want to try to get the one seed.
19:08I think it's important.
19:09I can remember making the point about the injuries in those wild card games or even in Week 18 in
19:14Miami.
19:14Like, you're losing guys and it is hurting your chances and if you don't have to lean into those games
19:20or even play one of them, like a wild card game, all the better.
19:24And, you know, you're going to have the benefit of rest and hopefully health and all that.
19:28But this year, I just feel like, again, the factors to me are the depth of contending level teams in
19:36the conference.
19:36Whether that's because the top has sort of come back a little bit, which I think maybe has happened with
19:43Kansas City and Buffalo and Baltimore to an extent.
19:46And then the others have sort of risen up to sort of meet them and now you've got this chunk
19:52of teams.
19:52That's complicating it.
19:54And then, you know, who the Bills are playing outside of the conference and all the new stuff.
19:58Like, it all just sort of adds up to me.
20:01Yeah.
20:02I'm winning the division and I've got 11 wins.
20:04I'm the three seed.
20:05Yeah.
20:05I would sign up for that today.
20:08You referenced that.
20:09Was it the night game in Miami you were thinking of there?
20:11The last game of the year, yeah, when they needed it.
20:14And Gabe Davis got hurt and a linebacker got hurt.
20:17I don't remember who.
20:19Because A.J. Klein had to come play.
20:22That's that year.
20:23Yeah.
20:23Rap, maybe.
20:25Yeah.
20:26I think that was a part of it, too.
20:28Man.
20:31Well, I wonder who fans are sort of focused on.
20:35I mean, this has always been Kansas City 1, Baltimore 2, I think.
20:39And then after that, whoever your favorite flavor is, you know.
20:44New England now in that conversation, of course.
20:47Cincinnati is still in the room.
20:50The top, the Jaguars and Texans in the AFC South.
20:54Denver was the one seed last year.
20:56The Chargers are, again, popular.
21:01The Steelers only ever win that AFC North.
21:04Right.
21:05That's all they ever do is get in the playoffs anyway.
21:08Yep.
21:09Really good.
21:10There's a lot.
21:11It feels like there's more traffic on the road this year than other years,
21:15as far as the top of the conference goes.
21:18Denver is the one in the power rankings three weeks in a row.
21:21They did knock the Bills out.
21:25But they're not anybody's overwhelming favorite.
21:30They're not even the betting favorite.
21:31The Bills are.
21:32Right.
21:32The Bills and the Ravens.
21:33Not the Chiefs.
21:35Interesting.
21:35The Chiefs are slightly behind.
21:36Maybe that varies.
21:38You know, I should shop around and see if that's true all the time.
21:43Maybe not.
21:43The Bills are going to be worth it.
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