00:00Let's get into the main event of this card that has changed, right?
00:03It was supposed to be Roundtree, but Roundtree's out,
00:08and Kuskov was already in training in preparation for a rematch against Blakovic.
00:16So, yeah, he's on two weeks' notice here, Tom,
00:19but this guy wakes up ready to fight 3-6-5, right?
00:24Yeah.
00:24I mean, the guy was on a hell of a roll as well.
00:26Four straight wins before the majority draw decision,
00:32and he is a knockout specialist,
00:34and Magomed's coming off of a loss in which he got knocked out.
00:40And so it's kind of rare that you see a dude like this,
00:42but that's a minus-550 favorite,
00:45but I see a lot of stuff out there.
00:49A lot of people are like, yeah, I don't, you know, he's not going to win,
00:53but I have to take Kuskov here at this price.
00:57I'm not ready to do that.
00:58I'm not ready.
00:59I'm not one of those guys that, like, oh, it was a good bet, but it didn't win.
01:02Like, if it wasn't, it didn't win, it wasn't a good bet, right?
01:05So I'll ask you, are you buying into this?
01:08You're like, no, no, no.
01:09I'm going to figure out a way to go Magomed in a parlay,
01:11or I'm going to work this differently.
01:13What's your take on the main event?
01:15Yeah, I mean, I'm not sold on fading on Kalayev.
01:20I understand he's a really frustrating guy because he's a very good striker.
01:26He does have grappling, but he doesn't typically use it.
01:29In this matchup in particular, if he decided to grapple from the opening bell,
01:35he could win this fight quickly.
01:38He's got a huge advantage over Guskov.
01:41He's a dangerous guy to stand in a phone booth with.
01:44Yes.
01:44Because this is what Bogdan does.
01:45He swings and knocks people out.
01:48Exactly.
01:50And Kalayev is a guy that will stand and trade.
01:53He stood and traded with everybody he's fought pretty much for the most part.
02:00And obviously, in the last fight against Pereira, it kind of bit him,
02:03and Pereira just came out kind of guns blazing, which also we don't normally see.
02:07I mean, he's usually patient.
02:08He just ran across the cage and took it to him.
02:11But, you know, he also did stand with Pereira for five rounds and got that win in the first fight.
02:18It was a lot of clinch game.
02:20It was a lot of, you know, it wasn't a lot of striking at distance.
02:24But we have seen him stand and trade with the best strikers in the world.
02:28The problem with him is his volume is kind of low.
02:30And in a matchup where he should grapple, he doesn't typically grapple.
02:35You know, the Jan Blachowicz fight, he grappled late and ended up getting a draw in that fight.
02:41He was getting his calf kicked off.
02:44He could barely walk.
02:46Went to the grappling.
02:47And you saw if he just grappled from the beginning of the fight, he would have won that fight going
02:51away.
02:52Like, it wouldn't have been a problem.
02:54But he doesn't typically do that.
02:56This is another matchup here where he's got a guy with dangerous power with a massive hole in the grappling
03:02game.
03:02If Ankalaev goes to the grappling, he wins this fight and he wins it easily.
03:07And he probably wins by sub or TKO in the first couple rounds.
03:12But if he doesn't, they're going to stand and trade.
03:14He could get caught with something.
03:16We've seen him hit and hurt on the feet where, you know, he's been rocked but not finished.
03:20You know, obviously we saw Pereira finish him.
03:22But typically he can take a pretty good shot.
03:25But I think Ankalaev wins this fight.
03:28I do think at some point he probably goes to the grappling.
03:31You know, ideally maybe he gets buzzed early and thinks, okay, I got to take this guy down.
03:35Because if he does, he has a huge advantage.
03:38If he doesn't, if they stand and trade, he's going to put up low volume.
03:42It's going to be kind of a boring fight.
03:44It's not going to look like a minus 550 or minus 600 or whatever that line ends up being.
03:48But if people keep betting Guskov, you know, maybe that line drops a little bit.
03:53But overall, I think Ankalaev wins this fight.
03:55I think if he grapples, he makes it look easy.
03:58But it's Ankalaev, he never makes it look easy.
04:01And that's the problem with him.
04:02But overall, I do think Ankalaev wins this fight.
04:05And if he gets back to the grappling, he's going to make it look easy.
04:09So that's what I'm hoping for.
04:10But, you know, we'll see.
04:12Here we go.
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