00:00Well, we are talking about the Ring of Fire, this concept of large heat domes where there is a lot
00:06of sinking air and heat, and around the periphery of that, there will be some thunderstorms. Now,
00:11this is just kind of a broad picture of the concept, and I don't want you to take it literally.
00:16This is more of a conceptual idea here, but this example, for example, it's an evergreen example
00:22that we would use to explain it. It's not specifically our forecast for this particular
00:27event, although it's actually not that far off with the placement of the ridge and also some
00:31storms. There are a few exceptions over the next few days. We're going to be facing some showers and
00:35thunderstorms in parts of the Missouri River Valley, but it's going to be hot here in parts of the
00:40plains. Let's take a look at the computer modeling to explain the heat. As we begin, this line here,
00:50this is the 594 decameter line. What the heck are we talking about? Well, basically, this is the
00:55altitude. You would have to travel up in meters to get to a point where the pressure drops to 500
01:01millibars. Pressure is high near the ground. It drops to basically nothing at the edge of outer
01:06space. So as we travel up into the atmosphere, if there's heat, you have to travel higher up to
01:13escape certain levels of pressure. Basically, pressure is, again, well, let's just think of it
01:18this way. The air expands when it's hot. So it's like a mountain of heat. Think of it a mountain
01:24of air
01:25the mountain expands because of all the heat. That's a pretty big zone with that threshold of
01:31basically that 594 zone. And watch what happens over the next few days. It expands and begins to
01:38pull a little farther north before it then constricts. But before it constricts, you can see
01:43the 594 line. In fact, this Thursday evening, it's over an area near Wichita, Kansas to maybe,
01:50I don't know, places near Bolivar, Missouri. And as we go into Saturday, look at this. It expands
01:57all the way north. That same line, instead of it being down here, it's all the way up near the
02:02North
02:02Dakota, South Dakota line. That's a big move. So the expansive zone of very warm air is going to be
02:09building north into the plains. And that means a heat wave is going to be taking over in these areas.
02:14And you also notice, I'm going to plot the big ridge of high pressure here. This is the European
02:20where the resolution is a little bit lower. And actually, it's a great model, but it doesn't show
02:25the tiny little detailed freckles and kinks and so forth. We have low pressure over the Hudson Bay,
02:31large area of high pressure over the plains. And the storm track is going to be diverting around
02:36where all these bright colors are. Those are areas of vorticity and spin in the atmosphere,
02:40basically disturbances that help to produce lift in the atmosphere. So overall,
02:43it's the ring of fire. It's around the periphery of the heat. Let's take a look at this. This is
02:48the
02:49shift of tails. Kind of sounds like some kind of a European thing, the shift of tails. But it's a
02:54statistical method of looking at how unusual is the weather pattern. We begin with some unusually
03:01cool air for this time of the year in the Ohio Valley, parts of the mid-Atlantic as well. Temps
03:05are
03:05down there. But we also have a lot of heat here into the area around Boise and some heat into
03:09West Texas.
03:10It's often hot this time of the year. So it's really hot there now, but it's not
03:13off the charts hot. As we move forward in time, now watch this. Well, that cool signature off the
03:20east begins to fade. We get back up to near normal by the second half of the weekend. But look
03:26at the
03:26heat building into the plains and parts of the Midwest. That's significant. That's a strong
03:30signal there. And areas around Sioux Falls, really steamy here later this weekend. And very steamy here
03:37in the wake of the area that saw Bertha. And then the heat shifts back to the south and it
03:43begins to
03:44fade some, but it never really leaves the northern plains as we get into the middle of next week. So
03:49let's take a look at some numbers here. I'm going to go back to our graphics. So there is our
03:55ring of fire explainer. And here's our Friday forecast. You can see we're up near record highs
04:01there in Roswell, New Mexico. We would tie a record high in Lubbock. This is specifically the records
04:06for July 24th on the right and our forecast for July 24th. That's Friday this year. And we'll be up
04:12close to a record high in Amarillo. A little shy, but still steamy in Fort Myers, Florida, by the way,
04:17kind of tangential to the main event. Saturday, we begin to spread north. Look at this. Helena, Montana,
04:23102. That's a record. Sheridan, Wyoming, 100. Not quite a record, but it's hot in Wyoming. And then Billings,
04:30103. That'd be a record high. Cheyenne, close to a record there on Saturday. Let's take it a step
04:35farther. Sunday. This is when the heat dome is really centered farther north. So we'll be up near
04:41a record high, breaking records probably in Rapid City. 104 is the record high for, this would be
04:47what, the 26th of July. Amarillo, 102. Still hot in the panhandle. It would tie a record from 2011.
04:54Breaking a record in Billings, breaking a record in Casper, and almost to a record there in Denver
04:59Colorado. There's another part of this story, though. I want to close with this in the next minute
05:03and a half. So remember, the ring of fire implies that there is some action around the fringe of the
05:10heat dome. And here we are with an aggressive setup for strong and severe thunderstorms beginning late
05:17this weekend. So a lot of the storms initially would be up into parts of North Dakota. And then we
05:22get into
05:23the end of the weekend. Sunday and Monday, we're looking at some severe storms likely into the Ohio
05:29Valley. And then Tuesday, the severe risk then expands to the I-95. Tuesday, look out for the
05:34big cities in the northeast. This could be a series of nasty storms that kind of tumble down through the
05:39Great Lakes. But the most aggressive for the I-95 will probably reach that area on Tuesday. So I'm
05:45going to close with a look at the modeling again. And we can take a look at this. So initially,
05:50one exception, by the way, this ring of fire, the concept, there's one exception. There's a little
05:55zone here in the central plains where there are some storms that kind of permeate that. But
06:00eventually, the ridge builds up and then it begins to shut any of that down. And I know you see
06:04a
06:04little L over South Dakota. That's kind of an artifact of the way certain things are automated.
06:10It's actually just a localized minimum. Overall, it's high pressure, strong zone of high pressure
06:15across the plains, even though there may be a little bit of a dip there. Localized low pressure.
06:20It's actually a heat low, if you will. But watch these storms. I'm going to just take us out.
06:25Monday, nasty storms near Chicago. I don't want you to take the specifics too literally. This is three
06:31to four days out. But the message, the Midwest, Sunday night and Monday. There's Monday's round into
06:37the eastern Great Lakes area. And then Tuesday, more trouble for the I-95. Look out for a stormy
06:43progression. Northern Plains to the Great Lakes and by Tuesday to the I-95. That's your forecast feed.
Comments