00:00Here's a look at Bertha at landfall. Not how you'd probably sketch up this tropical system at landfall, but I
00:07say that because look at the deep convection. It was so far removed from the center of circulation when it
00:12came in over the Biloxi Wildlife Management Area in St. Bernard Parish, 2 p.m. Central Time. Maxistain winds were
00:1945 miles per hour, moving west-northwest at 7 miles per hour. What's it doing now? It continues to move
00:23now almost directly west. It's still very lopsided. We still continue to highlight the center of circulation here, even though
00:29the deep convection.
00:29is displaced. Maxistain winds 45 miles per hour. Now it's moving west at 7. So we'll continue to track this.
00:37What's a little more helpful in identifying the center of circulation is going from the infrared, which shows the cold
00:43cloud tops where the clouds are tall but not where they're shallow, to the visible satellite, which does show the
00:49low-level cloud swirl. And that's what is being highlighted here right over the area near New Orleans, the center
00:55of circulation passing just to the south of there. So overall, it's a one to three foot storm surge for
00:59Bertha.
00:59across the central Gulf Coast. And this is going to be an area of continued concern with that stiff onshore
01:05wind. Again, if the circulation center is out here near New Orleans, it's a stiff onshore wind that's been plowing
01:12the seawater into that concave chunk of the coastline.
01:15And you can see there are some big waves out there, some spots with maybe a 10 foot wave height.
01:20So the waves are large, offshore, and still sizable, as you can see there at Orange Beach, Alabama, right up
01:27to the Alabama coastline.
01:2840 to 60-mile-per-hour wind gusts still likely with this storm. We've been seeing them at times in
01:33New Orleans. And the rain, it is not an impressive storm when it comes to the radar.
01:39But the deeper convection is offshore to the south. And I'm going to track the area of low pressure here,
01:44future radar. And again, this is one scenario that would not lead to a second landfall tomorrow.
01:49Because look at that, the center of circulation, it would stay just to the north of the coastline. And then
01:55it fizzles away and you lose its identity out there. It just kind of just loses itself over parts of
02:00East Texas.
02:01That's what future radar and clouds, this is one, basically there's a computer model that's kind of fed into this
02:06and it's cleaned up and kind of simplified, made for TV.
02:09But that is one scenario that's probably most likely. The secondary most likely scenario, the second less likely scenario, might
02:18be just to see this area of low pressure form just offshore, kind of jogging the center of the storm
02:24south.
02:24That could lead to a little more sustenance for this storm into the Houston area as a tropical storm tomorrow.
02:30It's less likely.
02:31Two inches of rain for the coastline possible with this one, especially west of the areas around Galveston.
02:37This storm has an AccuWeather real impact rating for hurricanes of less than one.
02:42It's one of these storms where people who may not have moved their vehicles out of the float prone areas
02:47are facing some problems.
02:49But most areas that at least sit more than three feet above sea level are doing just fine.
Comments