- 14 hours ago
Pakistan's attempt to broker peace between Iran and the United States has collapsed, while Bangladesh has laid down conditions for BNP leader Tarique Rahman's proposed visit to India, marking two significant diplomatic developments in the region.
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00:13can a country call itself a peacemaker when the peace deal it helped build collapses the moment
00:19the clock runs out and can a neighbor demand a diplomatic reset while turning a prime ministerial
00:25visit into an extradition bargain tonight two stories about the limits of leverage pakistan got
00:31washington and tehran into the same room helped shape a 60-day roadmap and watched the deal fall
00:38apart over sanctions nuclear demands and the strait of hormones then look east bangladesh
00:44wants tariq rahman's india visit tied to shake hasina's extradition but is dhaka negotiating a
00:50relationship or issuing ultimatums one mediator lacked muscle one neighbor may be testing india's
00:57patience so who blinks first hello and welcome you're watching statecraft with me gita mohan
01:03we begin with some big updates coming from the russia-ukraine war a russian missile strike hit
01:09indian billionaire laxmi mythos oslo mythos steel plant in kiriviri ukraine killing two people and
01:17injuring 13 workers the attack has led to partial halt in production the attack damaged key power
01:23generation and blast furnace facilities forcing a partial suspension of production at the country's
01:29largest integrated steel plant the plant is based in the hometown of ukrainian president volodymyr
01:35zelensky the company said search and rescue efforts are underway taking to x zelensky condemned the
01:42russian strikes he says and i quote wherever the russians can reach with their ballistic missiles
01:47they strike civilian infrastructure the attack was part of a continued overnight barrage in ukraine while
01:53strikes in other areas killed several people the russian attacks also sparked fires in kiev and injured
01:59many civilians ukraine had earlier launched hundreds of drones across russia killing at least six people
02:05in one of kiev's largest aerial attacks of the war pakistan's 60-day deadline is here but there is no
02:12u.s iran deal pakistan wanted to play peacemaker instead its big u.s iran deal has fallen apart
02:19islamabad got washington and tehran into a framework helped push a ceasefire hosted direct talks and put
02:27its name on a 60-day road map to end the war for a moment pakistan looked like the diplomatic
02:33hero nobody
02:34saw coming then reality arrived the deal started cracking the fighting returned homos became the
02:41biggest sticking point and washington and tehran went right back to blaming each other so what went wrong
02:49the answer is brutally simple pakistan had access but not enough leverage it could get the americans
02:55and iranians on the phone it could carry messages it could get them into the same room but could it
03:00force
03:00either side to keep its word no and now the 60-day window has expired with no final agreement so
03:08was
03:08pakistan's peace gamble a breakthrough or a diplomatic house of cards and was the 60-day deal ever really
03:15meant to end the war or was it just meant to buy time on paper the ambition was huge the
03:22june 17 the
03:23islamabad mou declared an immediate and permanent end to military operations and gave washington and tehran
03:29a maximum of 60 days to reach a final deal that sounds like peace but look closer the hardest issues
03:37were pushed into the next phase sanctions iran's nuclear program frozen iranian assets the u.s naval
03:44blockade and the strait of hormones so the deal stopped the immediate crisis and created a road to a
03:51bigger agreement but that road had potholes the size of countries and that leads us to pakistan's biggest
03:58problem what did islamabad actually have to offer as a mediator plenty at first glance pakistan had
04:06working relations with iran it had a long-standing security relationship with the united states of
04:11america it had close ties with saudi arabia and other gulf states its military partnership had channels
04:17with washington and pakistan had something very useful in diplomacy access islamabad hosted direct us
04:25iran talks the first face-to-face meeting between officials from the two countries in four decades
04:31that was no small achievement pakistan proved it could get the rivals talking but here is the difference
04:37getting two people into a room is not the same as making them agree like most of the western powers
04:43have
04:43done with smaller countries who go to war think of pakistan as the person holding the keys to the meeting
04:50room it can unlock the door it can bring the tea it can carry messages but it does not own
04:57the building
04:59washington and tehran still decide what happens inside so why did the us and iran agree to the mou if
05:06they could not agree on the final bargain because both sides got something from the temporary agreement
05:12washington wanted an end to the immediate fighting and progress on the issue it cared about
05:18especially iran's nuclear program and maritime activity iran wanted sanctions relief access to
05:24frozen funds and enter the u.s blockade and a return to normalcy when it comes to shipping through the
05:31strait of hormuz so who holds the leverage now washington tehran or hormuz itself the answer is the
05:40strait of hormuz has become the giant bargaining chip iran has tied the reopening of the waterway to
05:47u.s concessions washington wants commercial shipping restored and has maintained its naval blockade
05:54the result a narrow waterway became the center of the entire conflict shipping dropped sharply only five
06:00commodity vessels crossed on saturday and none were recorded on sunday compared with 31 the previous
06:07weekend that is not a minor shipping problem that is the pressure point so can sanctions relief and the
06:14reopening of hormuz really be separated not easily america wants ships moving iran wants sanctions
06:21eased frozen assets released military pressure reduced and the blockade ended each side wants
06:28the other to move first and that makes the order of concessions more important than the words on a
06:34document then came the collapse washington and tehran began accusing each other of violating the deal
06:41iran said the u.s failed to lift the blockade and deliver promised relief washington accused iran of
06:47failing to reopen hormuz by the 7th of july donald trump declared the agreement over iran then said the
06:53u.s had violated and suspended its commitments and tehran suspended its own commitments too and once both
07:00sides say you broke it first what happens the deal becomes a diplomatic blame game that exposes another
07:08weakness enforcement a peace agreement needs more than signatures it needs a way to check compliance
07:15settle disputes and punish violations pakistan had none of the muscle needed to force washington to
07:22lift a blockade it could not make iran reopen hormuz it could not control israeli actions it could not
07:29patrol the street it could not guarantee commercial shipping it could persuade but it could not punish
07:36and then came another intriguing development pakistan sought a 10 billion u.s dollar exchange
07:44stabilization facility the request came after pakistan's mediation role raised its diplomatic profile
07:50and islamabad pushed for deeper economic cooperation with washington so yes the peace effort may have
07:57carried a bigger strategic and economic calculation too but did pakistan get the prize it wanted most peace
08:04no and that brings us to can a mediator broke a peace without real leverage yes but only if the
08:12two
08:12sides already want the deal badly enough to make it work pakistan could facilitate it could mediate it
08:19could carry messages when washington and tehran refuse to speak directly but when both sides believe
08:24pressure could deliver more than compromise pakistan's influence hit a wall that is why islamabad's diplomatic
08:31flex did not completely fail but it did not deliver what it promised either pakistan became an important
08:38messenger it did not become the guarantor so what happens now that the 60-day window has expired not
08:45necessarily instant war not necessarily instant peace pakistan qatar and oman can keep passing messages
08:52washington can increase economic pressure tehran can keep using hormuz as leverage and the nuclear issue
08:59which the mou pushed pushed into the next stage remains unresolved in fact the old deal may be dead but
09:07diplomacy is not iran has said messages still move through mediators even while insisting that this
09:13does not mean formal negotiations have restarted iran is also discussing possible shipping routes through
09:19hormuz with oman and this time the hardest issues cannot simply be shoved into the next phase
09:25sanctions sanctions frozen assets hormones the nuclear program military pressure security guarantees
09:33these are the fight pakistan can bring the players back to the table but it cannot make washington
09:39surrender its cards it cannot make tehran surrender its cards as well and it certainly cannot force either
09:46side to accept a bargain it believes hurts more than war so what did pakistan's peace gamble prove
09:54it proved that opening the door is easy compared with keeping the room from exploding the 60-day deal did
10:00not end the us-iran conflict it exposed the limits of pakistan's leverage islamabad could get washington
10:07and tehran talking it could not make them agree and that is why pakistan's biggest diplomatic gamble ended
10:14not with the grand peace deal but with the clock hitting zero hormuz still closed the hardest disputes still
10:22alive and the next round of diplomacy already waiting in the wings so bangladesh wants to play difficult
10:30with india tarik rahman the prime minister will apparently not come to delhi unless india first
10:35hands over sheikh hasina really is dhaka seriously trying to turn a bilateral visit into an extradition
10:42bargain or is this bangladesh's new way of testing how much pressure india will absorb in the name of
10:49keeping the relationship alive because new delhi has been bending over backwards to reset ties with dhaka
10:55and yet every time india extends a hand bangladesh seems to be adding another condition bangladesh says
11:02a propitious environment must be created before tarik rahman visits india and what would create that
11:08environment according to its foreign ministry india must expedite the extradition of sheikh hasina and
11:15other fugitives as they call them dhaka says the process surrounding rahman's proposed india visit
11:22has been damaged by hasina's august 5th media interaction from new delhi let us be clear about
11:28what is happening here bangladesh is trying to make sheikh hasina india's problem but why should her
11:35extradition become the entry ticket for a visit by bangladesh's prime minister india did not organize
11:41hasina's virtual media interaction although yes she is being hosted by india india did not endorse her
11:47remarks ministry of external affairs of india has already said so yet dhaka appears determined to keep
11:53the issue alive more importantly former prime minister of bangladesh sheikh has already announced
11:59a departure from india she's already said she's going to go back in december there's a larger pattern here
12:05since tarik rahman came to power india has made repeated gestures prime minister modi congratulated
12:11him loksabha speaker om burla attended his swearing in ceremony external affairs minister dr jay shankar
12:17attended halad azia's funeral india even extended invitations to rahman to visit new delhi what did
12:24rahman do he went to malaysia then china not india and in beijing he called china bangladesh's most
12:31valued and trusted partner that was not just a travel itinerary that was a signal but india did
12:38not take the bait new delhi kept talking kept engaging kept the diplomatic channel open even
12:44the security relationship showed signs of warming bangladesh's military intelligence chief came to india
12:50the head of india's external intelligence agency later traveled to dhaka the two sides appeared to
12:55be quietly rebuilding a relationship damaged after sheikh hasina's ouster and just when it looked like
13:02the political reset was finally gaining momentum dhaka pulled the emergency brake suddenly rahman's
13:08india visit comes with conditions suddenly sheikh hasina's extradition is on the table suddenly
13:15bangladesh wants india to prove its goodwill before bangladesh's prime minister even sits down
13:21with prime minister modi this is where india needs to stop being overly sentimental about diplomacy
13:28bangladesh is acting pricey because it believes india needs this relationship more than bangladesh does
13:34that assumption needs to be corrected no india should not slam the door shut that would be foolish
13:41but neither should new delhi keep handing out concessions simply to keep dhaka happy india needs
13:47something bangladesh understands very well leverage the tista could be tarik rahman's biggest bargaining
13:54chip with india for years the dispute remained frozen with mamtha banerji being the biggest political
14:00impediment but that equation has changed now this could be rahman's moment to deliver what bangladesh
14:06has long demanded and turn tista into a diplomatic victory by engaging india the bigger question is
14:13what is bangladesh willing to give india in return with india leading bims tech dhaka must decide whether
14:20it wants a strategic partnership with india or become increasingly dependent on china more like a satellite state
14:26look at bangladesh's current situation the country is battling a serious energy crunch electricity and gas
14:33shortages have forced restrictions shops markets and malls have faced operating curbs dhaka has even had to
14:40seek additional diesel supplies from india and geography is india's biggest strategic advantage
14:47more than 4 000 kilometers of border shared rivers trade transit energy food supplies connectivity
14:55bangladesh can diversify it can deepen its relations with china it can embrace its bangladesh first doctrine
15:02but it cannot simply wish away india and china is precisely where india needs to be careful
15:09beijing is not investing in bangladesh out of charity chinese investment in ports infrastructure
15:15and strategic projects can create a long-term security challenge for india's eastern flank add
15:21growing security cooperation and the picture becomes even more complicated that is why india needs
15:27a carrot and stick policy the carrot is simple keep trade open restore predictable economic engagement
15:33expand energy cooperation offer infrastructure partnerships keep the political door open make bangladesh
15:41understand that india wants its success but then also comes the stick terror networks are a red line
15:48anti-india insurgents are a red line hostile intelligence activity is indeed a red line any attempt to use chinese
15:56or pakistani
15:57strategic partnerships to create security vulnerabilities for india must have consequences
16:03because india cannot allow a hostile access to develop on its eastern flank while simultaneously dealing
16:09with threats elsewhere bangladesh has every right to pursue its own foreign policy but india has an equal
16:15right to protect its own national security and this is where dinesh trivedi's message becomes important
16:21indian high commissioner has chosen dialogue over confrontation he says challenges are part of democracy
16:28he says differences can only be resolved by meeting and he hopes tarik rahman's india visit happens much sooner
16:36that is the mature approach india does not need to shout at bangladesh it does not need to publicly trade
16:41insults
16:42it needs to keep talking and quietly remind dhaka of the consequences of turning a mutually beneficial
16:48relationship into a zero-sum game trivedi says india and bangladesh do not merely share a border
16:54they share a dream fine but dreams require realism friendship requires reciprocity and sovereignty works
17:02both ways bangladesh cannot demand that india respect its sovereignty while simultaneously telling new
17:08delhi what it must do with the former prime minister living on indian soil dhaka can request extradition
17:14india can examine that request according to its laws and procedures but making it a political ransom
17:20for a bilateral visit is a different matter altogether and perhaps that is the real question
17:26is tarik rahman genuinely trying to repair ties with india or is he trying to demonstrate to bangladesh's
17:32domestic political forces that he will not be seen as getting too close to new delhi because
17:38there is pressure inside bangladesh islamist groups and hardline elements
17:42have long viewed closer ties with india with suspicion a tough posture towards new delhi plays well with
17:48that constituency it allows rahman to project strength at home while keeping his options open
17:54abroad but playing anti-india politics is easy governing a country is not bangladesh needs energy
18:01it needs trade it needs connectivity it needs investment it needs stability and on many of those fronts
18:09india is not optional so new delhi should not chase rahman it should not beg for his visit and it
18:15certainly should not make unilateral concessions just to manufacture a diplomatic photo let rahman come
18:22when he's ready to talk keep the door open but make the terms of the relationship clear india wants a
18:29stable bangladesh a prosperous bangladesh a sovereign bangladesh but not a bangladesh that threatens or treats india
18:36as a punching bag while simultaneously depending on it for critical economic and energy lifelines
18:42the post hasina relationship is being defined right now and india has a choice it can continue
18:49responding to every bangladeshi provocation with more patience and more concessions or it can combine
18:54patience with power because bangladesh may be playing a game of diplomatic brinkmanship india should
19:01not play along the answer is neither confrontation nor capitulation engage bangladesh where interests
19:07converge push back where india's interests are threatened and make one thing absolutely clear
19:13india is willing to reset the relationship but a reset cannot be built on ultimatums it has to be built
19:20on mutual respect mutual interest and mutual dependence prime minister tarik rahman may be deciding when he wants to
19:28visit india but bangladesh cannot decide the terms of the entire relationship
19:34that's all in this edition of statecraft before we go president trump says the us will substantially reduce
19:40its joint military drills now with south korea pointing to his very good relationship with north korean leader
19:46kim jong-un president trump says the us will substantially reduce its military exercises after seoul declined to
19:53join washington in its military campaign against iran trump says the drills are costly and send an
20:00unnecessarily hostile signal while seoul is reviewing what the move could mean for its security alliance
20:06with washington dc the decision also comes as north korea continues its missile tests and expands its
20:12military cooperation with russia raising fresh questions about deterrence on the korean peninsula take a look
20:19goodbye and take care
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