00:00In the meantime, inflation is getting in the way of everyone's best laid plans.
00:03You look at price increases in elderly health care, for instance, home health care.
00:07Because of immigration curbs, it's outstripping, far outstripping, the rise in college tuition.
00:12You can see there, although, of course, the absolute cost of each is comparing apples with oranges.
00:17Nouriel, are Gen Xers and millennials all going to work until we're 90 years old
00:21because we need to pay for six-figure college tuition as well as 24-7 care for our parents?
00:26Well, in principle, yes.
00:27The problem is going to be that with AI, eventually, we're going to have long-term permanent tech unemployment.
00:32It's going to happen only slowly, but it's going to happen in the next 20 years.
00:36So even if you increase the retirement age, the problem is going to be a large chunk of the population
00:40is going to be replaced by AI and robots in the next 20, 25 years.
00:44So increasing retirement age is not going to be a solution.
00:47It's true that with higher potential growth, debt ratio tends to fall because it's debt to GDP.
00:52So our fiscal condition is not as bad as it would be in a situation where growth is lower.
00:56But at some point, we have to do something.
00:59But eventually, we need some form of universal basic income for everybody while they work and once they retire.
01:05And we're already on the way to that.
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