00:00We're only in the early stages of the earnings story.
00:02What are the signals that you're getting?
00:04Where do you think things stand so far?
00:05What stands out to you from the earnings story?
00:06What the market's really trying to discern is whether or not it's priced to perfection.
00:11And so I think that there's been an exceptional amount of earnings strength.
00:15And I think now the forward-looking guidance will be as important as the prints themselves.
00:20Admittedly, a lot of good news is already in the price.
00:23So that's why we are seeing some pullbacks, particularly in Asia,
00:26where a lot of leverage players are involved.
00:30But if you can sit through it, we think that for the next 12 months,
00:33this earnings momentum is ripe.
00:35Earnings will probably be pretty good this year.
00:38And you might be surprised at that because an energy crisis
00:40is not normally conducive to European growth.
00:43Given Europe doesn't have energy independence, we import so much.
00:46But on the other hand, we've got a lot of commodity stocks in the index.
00:49The macroeconomic drivers of the CapEx cycle, the risk-on mentality,
00:55capital investment, pretty strong to be able to get in the way of right now.
00:59Is it going to be this earnings season that shows some evidence of tech spend,
01:03AI spend broadening out?
01:04Still a little bit sceptical about it.
01:06I think we still see quite a very substantial concentration in tech spend,
01:12little sign of broadening.
01:13This earnings season will be positive until or unless
01:17a hyperscaler says they're cutting their CapEx plans.
01:19And if that happens, that's a complete game changer, like just massive game changer.
01:23You do not fight that signal.
01:24But I don't think that's going to happen this earnings season.
01:26I think that we're probably still, you know, a couple of quarters away.
01:28But however, every single hyperscaler earnings call, I will be listening very attently.
01:33And if they ever say we're actually going to signify scale back in our CapEx plans,
01:37that's the AI trade over.
01:38So we are starting to see a little bit of noise around,
01:41OK, we've had enough fun in this sandbox of experimenting with AI.
01:45Now it's time to put it to work.
01:47And in the private market, we are absolutely talking with the owners of these companies
01:52and in many cases, the management of the companies to get a real feel for,
01:56is the rubber starting to meet the road today?
01:58This earnings season, there is a heck of a lot of expectation into this earnings season.
02:03So it's often better to travel than to arrive.
02:05If we're right about the inflationary outlook at this moment in time, which is benign,
02:09we're right about the earnings outlook, which is decent,
02:11then yes, you should start to think about buying those dips and buying them hard for 27.
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