- 2 days ago
The big talking point of this episode of Democratic Newsroom is on the political dynamics at play, focusing on the NDA's efforts to secure a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha to pass the Delimitation Bill in the upcoming monsoon session.
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00:00Hello and welcome to yet another edition of the Democratic Newsroom. I'm Preeti Chaudhary.
00:05The monsoon session is coming up starting the 20th of July.
00:10And once again, it seems that the government is going to bring up a bill that was defeated on the
00:1517th of April this year.
00:17The 131st Constitutional Amendment Bill, the delimitation bill.
00:21For that, the government will need two-third majority in the Lok Sabha.
00:26Right now, the strength of the Lok Sabha is 540.
00:30The government, which is the NDA, has 294.
00:33Two-third, 360.
00:35But off late, there has been a windfall of support of Lok Sabha MPs that have come in for the
00:42NDA.
00:43Be it from the rebel TMC group or the Uddhav Saina, those who've made their way to the NDA fold.
00:51Now word coming in that NCP, Sharad Pawar, could very well be supporting the government on the delimitation bill.
00:59And so could the Uddhav Saina with its 3 MPs and 8 of the NCP.
01:04The question remains, what of the DMK?
01:0722 MPs there.
01:08Will it go the way with the government?
01:10Well, we don't know ever since what happened the last time in Tamil Nadu where the Congress abandoned DMK.
01:17So all of that politics at play, the opposition says the government is doing what it takes to break away
01:23MPs from other political parties.
01:26The government says fair game, they want to come.
01:28So fair game or foul play?
01:30Let's open the debate.
01:31I have with me Rajdeep Sardisai, Gaurav Sawant, my colleague Naga is joining us all the way from Karnataka because
01:39it's promised that there could be a proportional increase in seats, which is by 50%.
01:45We also have Sahil Joshi who's going to be joining us in just a short while because a lot of
01:51action coming in from Maharashtra.
01:53But Rajdeep, fair play or fair game?
01:56So, look, in my view, Preeti, delimitation in a sense is unavoidable.
02:03When you look at the freezing, the last delimitation took place in 1971.
02:09We're now in 2026.
02:11That's 55 years later.
02:13During this period, the population of this country has doubled.
02:16So, you will at some stage or the other need to confront the delimitation question squarely.
02:24You can't avoid it forever.
02:27The real debate, therefore, in my view is not whether you should do it or not.
02:31How do you go about it without turning a constitutional exercise into a political fault line?
02:37You see, that's my problem at the moment.
02:39Where this is a major legislation, it's going to change the political map of this country for the next 50
02:45years.
02:46When you are doing that, you need to have the widest possible consultation.
02:51You can't have individual meetings in secret with one group or the other.
02:55You have transparent meetings, have a dialogue and try and find a consensus.
03:00You've got southern states who've got their own concerns.
03:03You've got regional parties who've got their own concerns.
03:06Bring them all on the table.
03:07Why have you not done that?
03:09It cannot be that suddenly, when the debate is going on in April,
03:12Amit Shahji gets up and says,
03:14Okay, if you want 50% more across the seat, give me one hour, I'll do it.
03:18That's not how major legislation in this country should be taken forward.
03:23But the government, Rajdeep, can say that,
03:25Okay, you defeated the bill on the 17th of April.
03:27We've come back.
03:28We've held consultations with certain political parties,
03:31like the NCP Sharad Pawar, like the Uddhav Sena.
03:34And we've had that conversation.
03:36And if they've asked for a proportional 50% increase, we'll give it to them.
03:40The DMK could be on board as well.
03:42This needs an all-party meeting.
03:44It needs a series of all-party meetings.
03:45It cannot be,
03:46I've said to him, I'll deal with the Sharad Pawar.
03:48I've said to him, I'll deal with the Sharad Pawar.
03:50I've said to him, I'll deal with the Mamata Banerji.
03:52I've said to him, I'll deal with them.
03:53Uddhav Thakre, DMK, that's not the way to do it.
03:56Look, the opposition is clearly on the back foot.
03:59The government is slowly but surely getting the numbers.
04:01But as I said, it's not about that.
04:04It is not about whether I reach 360 or not, right?
04:07That's another question.
04:08That we can discuss fair play, foul game.
04:10My question is, this is fundamental.
04:12This is a bill that will fundamentally alter the map of the country.
04:16When you are doing serious bills of this nature,
04:19you need the widest possible consultation with all stakeholders
04:23so that in an ideal world, there is consensus.
04:26Please appreciate, a southern state should not be penalized
04:29for its lower population growth rates, right?
04:32But Rajdeep, before I bring in Gaurav,
04:35the counter to that is also,
04:36now the government can say,
04:38most of the southern parties are on board with us.
04:40You have the TDP who is supporting us.
04:42The DMK could go in favor of it.
04:44The YSRCP will support us.
04:45So, what in effect will happen
04:48is possibly the Congress could get just isolated on this.
04:51You see, as I said,
04:52I am not getting into the numbers game.
04:54The government will get the numbers.
04:56Right.
04:56Right?
04:57What is the process by which delimitation is going to take place?
05:00How are you going to do it?
05:01Who is going to be on that delimitation commission?
05:04How will you proceed with it over the next 18 months?
05:06I repeat, when the country has major legislation,
05:10it is the duty incumbent on the government
05:13not to do it in an ad hoc manner.
05:14You cannot get up suddenly in parliament and say,
05:17okay, let's go, I will increase you 50% of the people.
05:19That's not the way major legislation is done.
05:22That's what I am saying.
05:23Bating the numbers is not the issue.
05:24Gaurav, the question is not so much whether it's fair play or fair game.
05:28The question is larger.
05:29Fair play or foul game?
05:30Okay.
05:31Fair play or foul game.
05:32The question is much larger here, which has to do with the morality of it all.
05:36When you are pushing in such a big legislation,
05:38which could effectively take the numbers to 830 in the Lok Sabha from 540,
05:45questions on what happens with Rajya Sabha,
05:47questions on why the women reservation bill is linked with the delimitation bill.
05:51All of that needs a wider, longer consultation than what we've seen.
05:56There's a consultation and there's a process that's on.
05:58There's a debate which happened in parliament.
06:00We're a parliamentary democracy, right?
06:02We're not a kangaroo court where people outside parliament will decide
06:06or interest groups will decide what will happen and what will not happen, right?
06:10So when Rajdeep Sardesai gets elected as a member of parliament,
06:13he will be in parliament and he will debate it.
06:16Now he will have his new show.
06:17In his new show, he's raising all the points.
06:19But all the members of parliament debated this, discussed this.
06:23Those who agreed with it voted in favor.
06:26Those who didn't, they voted against it and it did not succeed.
06:29So now there's a fresh effort to make it succeed.
06:31And the Home Minister has made it very clear on the floor of the House.
06:35So this bogey that South will not benefit.
06:38Now it's facts.
06:39Now facts that on India first and India today, we always have facts.
06:43Let's take it state by state.
06:45Andhra Pradesh has 25 seats.
06:47It will go up to 38.
06:48Representation from 4.6 will become 4.65.
06:52Is there any decrease?
06:53No.
06:53Telangana from 17 to 26, 3.13 to 3.18.
06:58Any decrease?
06:59No.
07:00Tamil Nadu from 39 to 59, from 7.18 to 7.23.
07:04Any decrease?
07:05No.
07:06Tamil Nadu does not lose out.
07:08Keralam from 20 to 30, 3.68 to 3.67.
07:13Total 129 seats as on date will increase to 195.
07:18From 23.76 to 23.87.
07:21Does South India lose?
07:22No.
07:23So what's the politics all about?
07:25There are two points.
07:25There are one thing you have.
07:27Hold, hold, hold.
07:27No, no.
07:27My friend, Gaurav Savan, says he's throwing these stats.
07:30You see, as usual, he's cherry picking.
07:32The point is.
07:33No, no.
07:33One minute.
07:34I'll tell you why.
07:34I want to add this.
07:35Uttar Pradesh 50% happens.
07:37Uttar Pradesh goes from 80 to 120.
07:38Let's not get into the percentage.
07:40Hello?
07:41A state like Telangana would go from, it has 18 or 19.
07:4517 to 26.
07:46It would go to 17.
07:47The gap is still the same.
07:48Aray, that gap exists from 19.
07:50No, no.
07:51So that has, no, no.
07:51One minute.
07:52Therefore, Gaurav is not coming today.
07:54Mr. Gaurav Savan, just a minute.
07:56There are other formula you can have.
07:58Gaurav, Gaurav.
07:59Gaurav.
07:59Gaurav.
08:00Gaurav.
08:00For what it's done on population as well as look at other.
08:04If you are going to say, look, there are two views to it.
08:06One is one person, one vote.
08:08Therefore, the most populous states must get the maximum number of seats.
08:11The other view, the other view is find some way in which southern states feel that their
08:19performance on bringing down population is also rewarded in some form.
08:22In some form.
08:23That's what they've been trying to say.
08:24So you're able to give more to south and less to north.
08:27I'm not saying more.
08:29I'm not saying more.
08:30But you're going to have to find a way to accommodate everyone.
08:33But they're larger.
08:33One formula is what you're saying.
08:35Rajiv, allow me to bring it.
08:36One formula is 50%.
08:37Priti, I have a point to make.
08:38That's an easy formula.
08:39I'm saying because it's going to fundamentally alter the political map and political power equations.
08:45How will it fundamentally alter it?
08:47Because the domination of North India will only increase over the other states.
08:53Out of 850, the majority of the seats are going to be 50%.
08:57One second.
08:58Allow me to widen the debate.
09:03There are multiple formulas that are being debated.
09:06There are formulas.
09:06I'm saying have a discussion.
09:07There are multiple formulas being debated.
09:09The other three points in this, Gaurav, is also number one, what happens with Rajya Sabha?
09:13Are we looking at a proportional increase in Rajya Sabha?
09:16And if not, then Rajya Sabha pretty much becomes useless.
09:19Number one.
09:20Number two, why link the women's reservation bill with delimitation bill?
09:24Why not still go ahead with the women's reservation bill with the current strength in the parliament right now?
09:29That can also be debated on the floor of the house.
09:31Number three, what is also a big apprehension of a lot of political parties is that you've conducted delimitation, for
09:38example, in a state like Assam and for them that has been gerrymandering.
09:41And if you look at how delimitation has taken place in the state of Assam, when you look at it,
09:48it's difficult to understand that one constituency is spread across four islands on the map.
09:56On what basis?
09:57People don't seem to understand that.
09:59So, one, it has to be explained to them.
10:02Two, there is a process.
10:04A process where there will be a serving or retired Supreme Court judge who will head that.
10:09Then there is the CEC and then there are state election commission.
10:14The three of them are to put their heads together and they have to do it.
10:18But it has to be done like Gaurav is saying.
10:20Allow me to bring in.
10:21That's the law.
10:21I will give you something at the end which is even more radical.
10:24Allow me to bring in Naga into this conversation.
10:28Naga Arjun Dwarakannath, our South Bureau Chief, is with us.
10:32Naga, it does seem, even though it was a huge issue earlier with all the South parties, but the South
10:37parties are seemingly on board.
10:39DMK is not saying anything.
10:40DMK could side with the government.
10:42YSRCP, not with the NDA, but could go with it.
10:46TDP with the NDA, happy to go with it.
10:48What's going on?
10:55Naga, can you hear us?
10:59Any, I can hear you, Preeti.
11:01Can you hear me?
11:02Yes, go ahead.
11:03I can hear you, loud and clear.
11:06In fact, I am saying the political parties in the Southern part of India also have tremendous pressure on them.
11:11If at all, they lose out on the number of shares, not the absolute number.
11:14The percentage of share of parliamentary seats, they will be questioned irrespective of, is it BJP, TDP, DMK or the
11:21Congress Party.
11:22Gowra was arguing that Amit Shah has promised on the floor of the House that Southern regions will not lose
11:27out on the parliamentary seats right now, on the proportionate size right now.
11:30But what is the formula?
11:32What is the seat numbers?
11:33Why is it being hidden right now?
11:34And why is the Southern people who have so much of apprehension, their air is not being cleared.
11:38Rajdeep spoke about 50% share being increased.
11:41Let's look at the math, UP from 80 goes to 120, Karnataka right now is at 28, so 80 UP,
11:47Karnataka 28 right now, 52 is the difference.
11:50When UP becomes 120, Karnataka becomes 48, the difference becomes 78 radically now.
11:56And at 800 and odd 15 MPs, does Karnataka MP stand a chance to question anyone in parliament?
12:03And how much of questioner will you have?
12:05And not any MP would get a decent chance to talk for the constituency.
12:09What is this need to have the same formula?
12:12I suggest a formula today, 60% population, 20% GDP and then 10% of fertility rate.
12:19In fact, you should also give credit to people who have other states who have maintained that fertility rate.
12:24Look at Temilaru's fertility rate, 1.4, 1.6, Andhra at 1.5, Karnataka at 1.7.
12:29Will Gowra promise me today, if Kerala and Karnataka has four fertility rate tomorrow, better than Bihar,
12:35will you agree that Karnataka will have more MPs than Bihar and UP?
12:38Will you agree to that?
12:40So, I am just saying this is what members of parliament, my agree or disagreeing does not matter.
12:46The government is telling you what Amin Shah wants.
12:47I am telling you what is being discussed in parliament as per law, whether Amin Shah wants it or not.
12:53It depends on whether the elected MP is wanted.
12:57And look at, you know, take for example, constituencies.
12:59In Lakshudeep, you have one MP who is representing 58,000 voters.
13:04And in, you know, Malkajgiri, you have one that is being represented by 38 lakh voters.
13:09So, where will that equality come?
13:11Okay.
13:12You know, that is where this needs to come in.
13:13Allow me to bring in, I think we also have Sahil right now.
13:16Sahil point by Gowra.
13:17Okay.
13:17Oh, ho, ho.
13:19That in itself deserves an applause.
13:21No, no, no.
13:22I think Gowra makes a point.
13:23I am running short of time.
13:25No, no, no.
13:25I think you all should, first of all, increase the time for democratic newsroom.
13:28If you all come late, how am I going to increase it?
13:29Everyone comes late.
13:30I think democratic newsroom should be a full hour.
13:33This is all right.
13:34Imagine with six people in the democratic newsroom, we are fighting with each other.
13:39800 odd MPs.
13:40We've got a population, I think it's North Bangalore, which has a population constituency, almost 30 lakhs.
13:45And you've got a 58,000.
13:46Please correct all those imbalances.
13:48As I said at the outset, it's unavoidable.
13:50The way you do it is the question.
13:51Let me also just say this.
13:53I really believe that the delimitation should be bottom up, not top down.
13:56The real, where I need, I don't need more MPs.
13:59Most of the MPs don't even get a chance to speak in parliament.
14:02543 are going to increase it to 850.
14:04There'll be even less time that they'll have.
14:06You don't even debate in parliament.
14:08These are what you should be really looking at is more debate in parliament rather than having more MPs.
14:12Okay, allow me to think.
14:12Where you need more people.
14:13Rajdeep, no.
14:14Bottom up means more corporators, more local councillors.
14:18That's where the direct sumpath is there.
14:20Sahil, I want to bring in Sahil.
14:22I want to bring in Sahil because I don't have time.
14:25Allow me to bring in Sahil.
14:26Sahil, do come in.
14:27Lots of action happening in Maharashtra.
14:29NCP Sharad-Pawar would possibly support, made me leave my train of thought.
14:36Okay, so NCP Sharad-Pawar will support the government on this bill and it seems those three MPs of Uddhav
14:43Sehna could also do so.
14:45And if all of that happens along with the TMC and the rest that have moved in towards the NDA
14:50fold, then the NDA is only three short of two-third.
14:55Well, at this point of time, I can say only one thing.
14:58If the delimitation happens, it will happen the same way what happened in the Democratic newsroom today.
15:02That three people sitting in Delhi have taken maximum time.
15:05You came late.
15:06Somewhere in the corner of this country, I'm not getting time.
15:10You came late.
15:10I'm not getting time.
15:12That is what is going to happen in the parliament.
15:13We can't widen the time.
15:14The representation of the people will be less represented while talking in the parliament and they will not be able
15:20to get time to.
15:21First of all, there is a completely flawed logic of the percentage representation in the parliament.
15:26Because it is very clear that the northern states always get the priority.
15:30That's why it's always said that, you know, the path to the Delhi always passes through Uttar Pradesh or Bihar
15:37or from the northern state.
15:38And that will reaffirm.
15:39And Maharashtra, 48 seats?
15:41This whole exercise will reaffirm that.
15:42Number one.
15:43Now, one minute.
15:44Number one.
15:44Number two, you know, something had changed in the last three months.
15:49In April, when the opposition parties were united and opposed this bill, they had a completely different thoughts altogether.
15:55They were talking about this 50% increase.
15:58They were talking about the representations of the southern and the western states.
16:03But at the same time, they were also talking about changing the whole scenario, the whole map of this country.
16:10And they were saying that this delimitation exercise was basically to ensure that the BJP remains in power for next
16:1810-15 years.
16:19And that was their main logic.
16:20And now suddenly what we are seeing is that NCP, SP has changed their stand.
16:25And they are saying, we will be happy if that 50% thing will be added in the bill.
16:30And that is something which had changed.
16:32And what had changed?
16:33Two things which had changed.
16:35One, Congress Party distancing themselves from the DMK in Tamil Nadu after the assembly elections.
16:41One.
16:41Yes.
16:41And two, the Bengal results.
16:44And the way, you know, breaking of TMC happened, it had never happened in the history of this country after
16:511985 when this anti-defection law was introduced.
16:55That in short period of time, so many members of parliament have changed the side.
17:0020 MPs from Tredemul Congress changed to NCPI and 6 MPs from Shiv Sena, UBT within a month's time have
17:07changed to Iknat Shindra's parties.
17:10This had never happened before.
17:12So by fearing that their party will break, it looks like that NCP, SPI changed its stand and softened their
17:18stand on the delimitation bill.
17:19Whereas Congress today is very clear that whatever happens, they are going to oppose this bill.
17:24Well, there's word also that it's possible, Rajdeep, it's in the realm of speculation that SP could also vote alongside
17:30the NDN.
17:32Look, as I said, therefore, the real issue is not whether the government reaches 360.
17:37Delimitation, in my view, is unavoidable at some stage or the other.
17:40It's the process, the formula you're going to put in place.
17:44It has to be done, in my view, in a manner which is creative.
17:48I think Naga made some excellent suggestions.
17:51I think he should be called before the committee.
17:53And the Home Minister should have a conversation with Nagarjun.
17:57Look, Nagarjun is reflecting what the view in a number of southern states is.
18:02We are sitting here in North India, Gaurav Savant and I, and sort of, you know, virtually having a very
18:07different view to India to the way he has.
18:09That's my point.
18:10In a federal polity, for God's sake, take the views of all stakeholders, including states, and then come up with
18:17a delimitation bill.
18:18That is pushed ahead with consensus.
18:21Not one which is done by, arrey, mereko 300 saad, isko jugaad karo, isko toro, isko toro.
18:24But Rajdi, but Rajdi, with what you were saying, that's how it's happening.
18:29Because the representatives of the people are saying, yes, we are game.
18:33Arrey, baba, madam, it's not so simple.
18:35Last three months, what has happened, the Todphod ki Rajneethi, do you need to do a major legislation through Todphod
18:43ki Rajneethi or with a principal stance on delimitation?
18:4620 seconds track.
18:47A principal stance on delimitation is, you need people of this country and not political parties with nephews and uncles
18:55and sons.
18:56It is the common man who needs best representation.
18:59The common man gets the best representation.
19:02Where do nephews and uncles come into the quest?
19:04Arrey, everyone is saying that it's Todphod ki Rajneethi.
19:07But where does uncles and nephews come into the quest?
19:09Uncles and nephews.
19:09Of course it is.
19:10What has happened with Chipsena and all the parties?
19:13Please think, please think, at the point is, please focus on the principle of game, not the nephews and sons.
19:17I am saying focus on the principle of delimitation.
19:19Okay, that's it. Hard cut. Everybody is talking over each other, nobody can hear. Hard cut. We are also going
19:30to discuss if we can increase the timing of the democratic newsroom as suggested by Rajdeep Sardisai and also endorsed
19:36by Gaurav Saval, which we all endorse and also next time everybody should come on time for the show.
19:42As Rajdeep and I always do.
19:43With that.
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