00:00 Hello, very good day to you. Summer is almost here and the weather is going to start to
00:04 feel a bit more summery as we head through the end of May and to the beginning of June.
00:09 Currently, the jet stream is running well across the UK and that's why there's a changeable
00:13 unsettled theme. However, as we go through the next few days, the jet stream is going
00:18 to shift its way a little bit further east and northwards and that means that we're going
00:23 to end up on the slightly more southern side of it and less influenced by it because high
00:28 pressure will be building instead and that's going to settle our weather down as we go
00:33 through the end of the week and into the weekend. That being said, because of the position of
00:37 this high and it could drift a little bit further westwards again as we go towards the
00:41 end of the weekend, we are at risk of seeing a couple of fronts maybe toppling over the
00:46 north of it and so that could bring something a little bit cloudier, wetter, a bit blustery
00:50 perhaps towards northwestern parts of the UK as we go through Sunday and into next week.
00:54 But I'll have more on that in a second. First of all though, let's look at what it's going
00:58 to do as we go through Thursday morning. So a bit of a showery picture for many areas,
01:04 some thicker clouds, some outbreaks of more persistent rain towards eastern parts, but
01:08 for many it's showers that we need to watch out for. Some of them could still be quite
01:12 heavy, perhaps the odd rumble of thunder. There will be some bright sunny spells, but
01:17 a bit of a chilly feel, a bit of a fresh feel for late May because there will be a northerly
01:21 wind and it could be quite brisk at times. And so yes, in the shelter, in any sunshine,
01:27 it should reach highs of around 18, 19, possibly 20 Celsius. So not feeling too bad, but in
01:32 the breeze, a bit of a chilly feel, like I said, as we go through the evening overnight,
01:37 most of the showers are going to clear away. So it is going to be mostly dry, perhaps holding
01:41 onto a bit more cloud and some further outbreaks towards far eastern parts, but further west,
01:46 some clearer skies could allow temperatures to dip into single figures in some more rural
01:51 spots, but many places holding up just about in double digits. As we go through Friday
01:56 itself, then yes, cloudy towards the east, outbreaks of rain continuing here. Some of
02:01 them could be a little bit on the heavy side and the onshore flow here is going to make
02:05 it feel fairly chilly, but towards the northwest here, a greater chance of seeing some decent
02:11 sunny skies, just a few showers to watch out for here and there. But most places away from
02:16 the east of England having a largely dry day, but yeah, a northwest, southeast split when
02:21 it comes to cloud amounts, generally sunnier towards the northwest. And with the sunshine
02:25 then where you catch it, it should feel relatively warm, high teens, low twenties, that kind
02:30 of thing, but under the thicker cloud and with that breeze that I mentioned towards
02:34 the southeast, it is going to feel a little cool for the last day of meteorological spring.
02:39 As we go into the start of summer and towards Saturday, we have this high pressure then
02:43 continuing to build. It's this high pressure that's going to lead to the largely fine weather
02:48 towards the west on Friday, and that's going to gradually push its way eastwards as we
02:52 go through Saturday. So most places having a fine day, still the potential for a bit
02:57 more cloud and perhaps some outbreaks of rain across southeastern parts of England, but
03:02 I'm not convinced as to how much rain we're actually going to see. But nonetheless, it
03:07 does look cloudier here, so a slower improvement to the fine weather as we go through the weekend.
03:12 But sticking with the northwest southeast split in terms of sunshine amounts, so sunnier
03:17 across Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England, parts of Wales and southwest England,
03:21 a bit more cloud towards the southeast. There are a few showers dotting up on the graphics
03:26 behind me, but you really have to try quite hard to get any showers to develop. So any
03:31 we do see would be pretty isolated and light and short lived, so shouldn't cause too many
03:36 problems. Temperatures, well, they are going to be around average for the time of year,
03:41 so feeling warm in any sunshine as we go through into Sunday. And like I say, the high does
03:46 drift a bit towards the west a little, and that does allow for something to try to push
03:51 its way into the northwest. So I think on Sunday it's a slight reversal in fortunes
03:55 in terms of cloud amount and where we're likely to see any rain across northwestern Scotland,
04:00 perhaps into Northern Ireland, some thicker clouds, some outbreaks of rain pushing their
04:03 way in and perhaps some blustery winds at times too. But towards the southeast, much
04:08 sunnier on Sunday than on Saturday and feeling warmer too because of the fact that there'll
04:13 be much more sunshine, much more blue skies. Temperature is going to rise low 20s, 22,
04:18 23, that kind of thing. A few degrees lower than this further north and west and feeling
04:22 fresher too because of the largely cloudy skies. Now, if we run through rainfall as
04:28 we go through the next few days, and I just wanted to show you the ECMWF probabilities
04:32 for greater than five millimetres of rain through Wednesday, yes, some heavy showers
04:36 across eastern parts of Scotland. By Thursday, the showers a bit more widespread but generally
04:41 focused towards more central eastern parts of England in particular. That's where we're
04:45 most likely to see the higher rainfall totals. If we go ahead a few more days and on Friday,
04:51 really the only chance of some major significant rain, well, major is perhaps overdoing it,
04:56 but any significant rain looks like it will be in the southeast. Elsewhere, it looks largely
05:00 dry, just one or two showers, but they should be light. By Saturday, and you remember I
05:05 mentioned the fact that whilst there was some rain showing up on the graphics, I'm not that
05:09 convinced as to how much we'll actually see in the southeast. And really, the chance of
05:14 us seeing more than five millimetres is negligible, non-existent. And so there could be a bit
05:19 of rain, but nothing particularly heavy and elsewhere looking dry. And then by Sunday,
05:23 it's really just across the far northwest of Scotland where we could see a few millimetres
05:27 of rain building up elsewhere. It looks largely dry. If we look at our temperatures and this
05:32 chart compares our forecast maximum temperatures for the next few days with the climatological
05:38 average and for Friday, it looks like it will be slightly warmer than average across parts
05:42 of Scotland, but cooler than average towards the southeast because of that thicker cloud
05:46 and the outbreaks of rain. A similar story for Saturday, sticking with that cooler theme
05:51 towards the southeast because of that cloud that I'm expecting to linger here, but warmer
05:55 towards the northwest of the UK. And then, like I say, a reversal in fortunes by Sunday.
06:01 So across many parts of England, particularly across central, southern and eastern parts,
06:05 it's going to be quite a few degrees warmer than average, whereas towards the northwest,
06:10 near normal, but a little bit fresher than it will have been earlier on in the weekend.
06:15 Let's look further ahead. And as we go through next week, this chart shows us the ECMWF pressure
06:21 anomaly and the pinky purples suggest that we're more likely to have higher than average
06:26 pressure somewhere towards the west of the UK with lower than average pressure elsewhere
06:31 across other parts of Europe. And with that, then, if we take a closer look, and this is
06:36 the most likely regime for Monday, the 3rd of June, and this also agrees with the idea
06:41 that we'd have higher pressure or high pressure to the west of the UK. And that should lead
06:46 to a largely fine picture, similar story to what we're expecting on Sunday. So most places
06:52 having a dry day. That being said, the position of this high here could still allow for some
06:57 systems to topple over the north of it. And so we could still see some outbreaks of rain
07:01 pushing into northern parts of Scotland. And whilst the general theme for next week is
07:06 high pressure somewhere towards the west of us, and that's largely going to dominate our
07:11 weather, there could still be some systems, some rain pushing through across the high.
07:15 So it doesn't mean it's necessarily going to be totally dry. But if we dart ahead a
07:20 few more days, and this is now the most likely ECMWF chart for Thursday, the 6th of June,
07:24 and it sticks with the idea of high pressure somewhere towards the west of us, but allowing
07:29 for something a bit more changeable, unsettled to push a little bit further southwards from
07:34 the north. And that's because a low pressure system could be somewhere towards the north
07:38 of us. And that's likely then to bring a bit more rain to northern parts. Again, some blustery
07:43 winds are possible, and there is quite a bit of uncertainty as to where exactly any low
07:48 pressure would track. And it could come a bit further south. And so we could see more
07:52 rain pushing across other parts, although at the moment, higher pressure looks likely
07:57 to be the most dominant feature as we go through next week. Another way we can show that and
08:01 again, looking at the ECMWF greater than 5 millimetre of rain probability charts, and
08:06 you can see a chance of a bit more rain towards northwestern parts of Scotland on Monday,
08:11 similar on Tuesday. But by Tuesday, there are some greens showing up on other parts
08:16 of the UK. And so we could start to see a bit of rain pushing its way through even though
08:21 high pressure is going to be largely dominant. Then a greater spread in uncertainty as we
08:26 go through the latter part of next week, as you would expect, always looks like towards
08:30 the northwest of the UK, you have the greater chance of seeing any significant rain, but
08:34 it's a non-zero chance that we could see some rain across other parts of the UK, which is
08:39 just the thing that I wanted to highlight here. Then the last chart that I wanted to
08:44 leave you with is our meteorograms for our capital cities looking at both the maximum
08:49 and the minimum temperatures. But if we just take Edinburgh for example, and looking at
08:54 the maximum temperatures and they're a little bit above average for the time of year at
08:57 the moment. But as we go through to the end of the weekend, beginning of next week, we
09:02 start to see that cooler air coming in with something a bit more unsettled towards the
09:06 northwest of the UK. We are likely to see our temperatures dropping. There's a fairly
09:10 wide spread though, as we go towards the middle of next week. So, it's definitely no guarantee
09:15 that we're going to see that slightly cooler theme, but the general trend is for temperatures
09:19 to dip a little bit across northern parts. But now if we look further south, and this
09:23 time using then London as our go-to for the plot that we're likely to see, and something
09:29 a bit cooler then as we go through Friday into Saturday because of that thicker cloud
09:33 across parts of the southeast, then temperatures really rise a bit as we go through Sunday
09:37 and into the beginning of next week. But it's by around Wednesday time again, there's a
09:40 relatively large spread in what we can expect in terms of temperatures. It looks generally
09:45 near normal, so it might be a little bit above, might be a little bit below average, nothing
09:50 dramatic. But the fact that there's a relatively large spread just gives us some headaches
09:55 into exactly what's going to happen next week. I think the general theme for high pressure
09:59 to be somewhere nearby, somewhere towards the west of us, so a fair amount of dry weather
10:04 looks fairly certain. But the fact that there could be some weather system, some wet weather
10:09 pushing through at times also is something we need to keep an eye out for. We will of
10:12 course keep you updated throughout, so make sure you subscribe to our YouTube channel.
10:16 Bye bye.
10:17 [BLANK_AUDIO]
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