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00:04Hello and welcome to Copper Independent, the independence football podcast. I'm Lawrence
00:09Osler and I'm joined by Chief Football Writer Miguel Delaney. Hello. And Senior Football
00:14Correspondent Richard Jolly. Hello. To discuss the new Premier League season, we are back after
00:21the World Cup and each week we will be recording a new episode on a big topic or a big
00:26talking
00:26point in football. And we're going to start discussing whether we are entering a new
00:30Premier League era, post Guardiola, post Salah, new managers everywhere and perhaps a lack
00:37of star power as well across the Premier League, why that is and what that means. We'll also
00:42be putting forward some Premier League predictions at the end of the episode. But Miguel, let's
00:45go straight into it. Why do you see this as a new era for the Premier League? Well, it's
00:53so much a new era that I've got alive and kicking running through my head as in that
00:58first Premier League advert back in 1992 for a sky. No, I think the obvious one is Guardiola's
01:05gone actually, more so than Salah because as much as Salah was a defining star of the past,
01:09what, nine years, he'd been on the way in this season and whereas Guardiola has been probably
01:17the most influential individual figure in the Premier League since Alex Ferguson. Hence,
01:23it does feel the most seismic change since then with a potentially huge effect on the
01:30league that is actually related to everything we thought with Ferguson as well, which is
01:34pretty much that now that I've been speaking to a few people around different clubs about
01:39this and kind of analytics departments, this sort of thing. For every season for pretty much
01:45about the last nine years, maybe not Guardiola's first in 16, 17 because there was actually
01:49a few unknowns and I think that campaign actually has a bit of a, it's almost the inverse of
01:56this one. This one has so many new managers. That one was a group of new big name managers
02:02but there were still question marks about Guardiola. But once he won that first league,
02:06the sense is basically, it's a bit like Ferguson's United in the sense, if you want to win the title,
02:10you have to finish above them. You have to try and beat them. You probably have to get
02:13over 85 points. Now, that has actually reduced in the last two years, I think for reasons related to
02:20his eventual departure. But suddenly, this huge figure is gone. And yes, look, City, it's still
02:29this huge Abu Dhabi project. They're still, I mean, they could still finish the window spending 200
02:35million. They're still going to have one of the best paid squads in world football. But it doesn't
02:39have anyone bringing them together in the same way like Guardiola. Because as good as Maresca might
02:43be, and I suppose that is up for debate, Guardiola is one of the greatest figures in football history.
02:50And just that absence, it leaves a potential vacuum. And I think there are a few other factors
02:59that you've mentioned there. I think the biggest is the amount of change in managers to the point that
03:04that, I was like, I've actually done a piece on this. But Regis Labrie and Fabian Herzler
03:11are the two fourth longest serving managers in the Premier League at the moment.
03:16Wow.
03:17Arteta is the longest serving by something like double anyone else. The next after that is Emery.
03:23And just from that, I feel more than any other Premier League season that I can remember in a modern
03:29era. There are so many unknowns about this. And for all those reasons, primarily dictated by
03:37Guardiola's departure. Yeah, it just feels we're into a new era of the competition.
03:43I wonder if we're, in a way, not in a new era as much as almost waiting for an era.
03:49It might
03:49subsequently come to be seen as a gap between eras. Because there is one possibility that that
03:56vacuum that Miguel talked about is filled by Arsenal. And at the moment, it's quite hard to
04:02think who will win the league if Arsenal don't. And thus, they're very well positioned. But if not,
04:08it might be the case that in two or three years' time, someone else emerges as the prime force,
04:14whether that's Manchester City after they've had a period of transition, whether that's maybe even
04:20Manchester United, whether that's Liverpool. This is a real chance for Arsenal because of that. And
04:26in a way, you see that reflected in the fact that who do they go out and sign? Well, Bruno
04:30Guimaraes at the age of almost 29. It's not building for the future. It's trying to win something now.
04:37And I think in a way, a lot of the league and probably Mikel Arteta more than anyone else
04:42was waiting for the end of the Guardiola era. And maybe some people didn't fully predict the
04:47scale of City's decline in the last two years. And I think that probably surprised City amongst
04:53others. But there was always that case of, well, who's the dominant team after Guardiola? What
04:59happens after Guardiola? And certainly at some points, there were Liverpool fans who thought,
05:03Jurgen Klopp's got a longer contract than Pep Guardiola. When Guardiola goes, Liverpool will be the
05:08dominant force. Obviously Klopp himself realised that his energy was spent. He couldn't go on that
05:14long. But the way that other teams fell off, or in the case of Chelsea, just haven't really
05:20challenged for years, has created that scenario where at the moment it's only really Arsenal who
05:26look immediately strong. Yeah, it's probably why it's also psychologically significant for Arsenal
05:33that they won the league while Guardiola was there. I mean, we can get into this as a bigger
05:37discussion to be had on Arsenal themselves. Because I think if they didn't win the league
05:41last year, they could have been primed for, say, a Mourinho 15-16 style collapse. I think
05:49that the intensity could have given out. They needed the release. And I think that they've
05:53had the release. Rather than being a Mourinho 15-16, it could actually be a Manchester United
05:59in 93-94 where, I'm not saying Arteta's got to do what Ferguson did, but more so that
06:05a team undergoes a transformation from the assurance of finally winning it. Had they not
06:10won it when Guardiola was there, there would have been that sense, it probably would have
06:14been cast against him. He had to wait until he went. And even if it wasn't peak city over
06:19the past two years, it was still so important to actually defeat them. And that's why you're
06:25right. I think Arsenal are best primed. And it's why it possibly forms a potential
06:31divergence, say. Because exactly what you've said there, Rich, that it mightn't be a new
06:35era, but actually kind of an intervening period. Because that did sort of happen after Ferguson
06:41went. It was probably what? It was four years, really? And it was that four years where the
06:47Premier League was a bit of a vacuum that contributed to Leicester winning it. Arsenal actually probably
06:51should have won a title in that period. But with a finger, ultimately he was past his
06:57best at that point. But also I think there was a fair argument at Arsenal of being up against
07:01Abramovich's Chelsea, Abu Dhabi, City. And City probably should have immediately replaced
07:06Ferguson. But it took them to really until they got Guardiola to form a proper era of
07:12their own.
07:13What the Premier League has rarely had, apart from in that period around 10 years ago, was
07:18a different champion every year. Which is something that partly, even though actually
07:23very few managers have retained the title, it's just that Ferguson and Guardiola both
07:27did it so many times. But you don't often get in the Premier League that kind of period
07:33of one team wins it, then another team wins it, then another team wins it. And some of those
07:37are quite interesting periods where it doesn't have to be an outstanding team. It has to be
07:42someone who's better than the rest in that year. And that was what Serie A had a few
07:46years ago when they went from that phase of Juventus winning it every year to sort of
07:50AC Milan win it one year, Inter win it one year, Napoli win it one year. And if Arsenal
07:55don't become the dominant team now, you might see that period here. And the eventual verdict
08:01in 20 years' time might be to look back and think, that wasn't an outstanding team that
08:06won it. Well, no, but it was the best team in that particular year.
08:09And there's always actually just, I mean, there's all sorts of tangents and strands
08:13that go off down here. But while that sort of scenario you're painting, it doesn't necessarily
08:17create the greatest teams by definition because they're not dynasties in that way.
08:21It often feels just healthier for football. I mean, English football's actually grandest
08:27example of that was between 1959 to 1973, 1974. Actually, it might be 75 even. And that was
08:35when there was 16 years where no one retained the league. And look, there's all sorts of
08:40different structural reasons that are very relevant to today. You know, like there was
08:44more parity among the teams, there was shared gate receipts, all this sort of debates that
08:47actually are relevant today, even if it was a completely different football context. But
08:51I suppose what was so energising about that, even kind of like reading about it, looking
08:56back and kind of matching the day from the 60s and all this sort of thing, was basically
08:58the sense that not quite any team, but a lot of teams could go into the season and
09:04think like, well, if we get one or two signings right, if we hit form, we've got a chance at
09:08a title. And it's funny, there is a little bit of that this season, but it's only a course
09:16around the big six. I mean, can Villa maybe have a think? I think probably just with the
09:22wage bill as it is, with kind of the transition there, it's probably a bit too difficult.
09:27But I mean, the way this starts will actually indicate a lot.
09:30What it might give the rest encouragement is not so much to think they can win the title.
09:36But last year, Bournemouth only finished two or three points behind Liverpool in sixth place.
09:41And if we assume that fifth place brings Champions League football again, and given the number of
09:45questions you could have against all these, in quotes, big six teams, apart from Arsenal,
09:51I think a club will not necessarily Bournemouth, but there is scope for someone to think, well,
09:57maybe if Liverpool will have a bad year, maybe if Chelsea have a bad year, maybe if Manchester
10:01United have a bad year, we could finish above them, which Aston Villa did last year. But then
10:07Villa in turn, they look weaker than they did last year as well. So to go back to what you
10:12were saying
10:12earlier, Miguel, about a lot of teams could finish in very different positions from last year.
10:17I mean, the three most obvious ones who should be looking to finish much higher, I think,
10:22are Chelsea, Tottenham and Nottingham Forest. Then you get some of the overachievers last year,
10:27who potentially could finish quite a bit lower, clubs like Bournemouth and Sunderland and Brighton,
10:32now they have European football. And so the table could look very different. And also when teams are
10:37much of a muchness, it's not a question of being outstanding. It's being a question of just getting
10:43more points than the others. And the fact that Liverpool only got, you know, 60 odd points last
10:48year, well, if 60 points is the bar for fifth place, there's a lot of teams who have been getting
10:5350, 55, you might think, just a bit more, just finish above the rest, and maybe we're in the
11:00Champions League.
11:00So there's obviously that sense that perhaps those teams that are in flux, particularly the bigger size
11:07and embarking on new or nearly new managerial projects, are therefore at a disadvantage to Arsenal.
11:14I think particularly in the last few days, following the Community Shield and also following Rodri's
11:19potential move to Barcelona, there's a real sense that Arsenal are totally in the ascendancy.
11:24I've seen a lot of predictions and pretty much everyone is predicting Arsenal win the league.
11:28Is there a sense that actually in this vacuum that we've talked about, one of the other managers,
11:34one of these other teams with new projects could come to the fore and actually surprise
11:38us? And although we value stability so highly, there have obviously been examples in the
11:43past of teams, managers winning the Premier League at first attempt, Jose Mourinho obviously
11:49winning the Premier League at the first attempt, Ghana Slotter being another example.
11:54Is there a sense, Rich, I mean, you'll be watching a lot of Liverpool, Man United, Man City,
11:57do you feel any of those, having watched a little bit of them in pre-season, are poised to
12:02potentially challenge Arteta?
12:05The one word answer is no. I mean, it's interesting when you talk about managers winning the league
12:10in their first year. I mean, Conte did that 10 years ago when all those superstar managers
12:15coming in, he was the one that had the immediate impact, not Mourinho or Guardiola.
12:19But no, to go to those three clubs in the North West, I guess, one by one, I mean, for
12:24starters,
12:25with City, the Community Shield showed a lot of the problems. I just think even though that
12:30City could have this incredibly expensive new midfield, depending on whether Ayupo,
12:35Buadi and Enzo Fernandes both join, I think the midfield's going to be worse than it was
12:40in the Rodri-Bernardo-Silver partnership. And City's best performances last season
12:45came with Rodri. And you could argue, as I did an article this week, that Manchester City
12:51stopped being a great team the day that Rodri did his cruise ship against Arsenal in September
12:562024. You then add on, on top of that, well, the manager is obviously a downgrade from Guardiola
13:02in a sense that pretty much anyone would be. As Miguel said, we're not quite sure how good
13:07Enzo Maresca is, but pretty much anyone's going to be a downgrade on Guardiola. And yeah, I think
13:13City are in the midst of this incredibly expensive rebuilding project, but also a bit of a mixed
13:19one. You see players like Tijani Rinders coming and going, Nico Gonzalo's probably on the bench.
13:24It's been a bit hit and miss. They've signed some good players in that, but they're replacing
13:28great players. Liverpool, you've got a second really expensive rebuilding project that looks
13:34completely unfinished. They haven't signed a replacement for Mohamed Salah, even though it
13:39was obvious from last December that he was going to go. Yandiamande will not be that replacement.
13:46He's gone to Real Madrid. Bradley Barkela, they're looking at, there's a big difference at the
13:51moment in valuations between what PSG want and what Liverpool want to pay. I think so much with
13:57Liverpool, you can argue, comes back to last summer and the really pretty awful spending spree. And so
14:03much of how Iriola will do will rest on those two biggest signings, in particular of Alexander
14:09Isaac and Florian Wirtz. But Liverpool go from being favourites last year to now. As I say,
14:15they look way off potentially. And it's worth noting, by the way, in terms of managers starting
14:21brilliantly, Iriola didn't win any of his first nine games as Bournemouth manager. So that's
14:27something to bear in mind. And Manchester United, I think Manchester United haven't actually replaced
14:32Casemiro yet, even though they knew they faced a big midfield overhaul this summer. But I think
14:39United have paid a price for past spending, in that all of a sudden, they didn't have as much money
14:45when prices were going up. And you look at the big, the real big midfield transfers this summer,
14:51Elliot Anderson, 116 million, United liked him. Matthias Fernandes, 85 million, United liked him.
14:58Sandro Tonali for 100, Bruno Guimaraes for 75, United signed none of those. And then you factor in
15:04with United, the other massive difference from last year is that they played 40 games last year.
15:10They could play 60 this year. I just don't see this Manchester United, if they play 60 games,
15:16challenging for the league at all.
15:18As a kind of extension to that point as well, because I was thinking about even as Lauren said
15:22there about like so many of the Premier League predictions have Arsenal's champions. Some of
15:26this actually comes from the uncertainty of the unknown, doesn't it? And especially the difficulty
15:31when you are making predictions of being able, attempting to look forward when you don't
15:36really have much evidence. I mean, even like one that Rich has touched on there, like United in
15:41Europe. Like, again, another staff and manager, because I've been looking at this a lot, over
15:45half the managers in the Premier League are facing their first preseason with their team.
15:51So like, we don't know how so many of these teams are going to settle. With a lot of the
15:55coaches as well, there's questions about adapting both to new teams, but also adapting to
16:01England. I mean, are below it. I mean, with Fulham, like, I find that almost impossible
16:05to predict which way it's going to go. And look, in football, one thing that should always
16:09be stressed is, for all we talk about managers, in most cases, it's recruitment that dictates
16:1570 to 80%, especially now. And it's why I would have said, like, I think Brighton, despite
16:21European football, should be looking at a promising season. They've got a bit more stability.
16:25They've got the recruitment. Daniel Fark at Leeds, maybe. But again, am I being tricked by
16:31stability? And it's just, I genuinely can't remember a Premier League season like this,
16:36where there's been so many, you've got so little to fall back on in terms of kind of
16:42trying to think about what a certain team are going to do.
16:46Just, I guess, the other element of this vacuum that we've talked about, and it's going
16:50to be, I think, the first Premier League season without Ferguson, Wenger or Guardiola in it.
16:54So there is this vacuum of superstar managers. You can throw Mourinho and one or two others
17:00into that list as well, but also maybe a vacuum of superstar players. We talked about Salah,
17:05who I know wasn't at his best last season, but he was a megastar, really, in Premier League
17:09terms. I suppose going back before that, you've got Kane and De Bruyne and players who've left
17:14the league. I suppose only Haaland. Would you put anyone else on that level? We go through
17:20the list of top players in the world now, Mbappe and Luminium and Dembele and Bellingham
17:26and Vinicius and others. Obviously, Vinicius didn't want to come to Arsenal or didn't come
17:30anyway. Do we feel like there is a vacuum of superstar players? And also, is that a problem
17:36for the Premier League? Is the Premier League so powerful now, such a commercial behemoth that
17:41it can create new superstars in its own storyline, in its own way, and doesn't need them to arrive
17:48on its shores?
17:49But actually, so that gets to something we were discussing earlier with that period from
17:54the 60s, from 59-73, which actually, ironically, did have, you know, that was actually the era
18:00of the kind of the real 60s megastar, obviously, kind of George Best being the biggest. But that
18:06parity is something that the other leagues that do have the majority of the global stars,
18:13they do not have. And I think that's quite, there's quite a fascinating thing there, because,
18:17look, this is actually something that Premier League executives think about a lot. I've discussed
18:21it in my newsletter before and done pieces where, you know, some executives have even suggested
18:26stuff like luxury tax to get around financial rules, just to be able to bring in the sort
18:31of star that would elevate the league. Although, I mean, you'd wonder how any other team would
18:34think about that if suddenly a big rival is getting a massive star. It's why Vinicius would
18:39have been so huge if he did come. I actually think he would have come had Madrid not raised
18:44their offer, and that could have a huge knock-on effect this season around Europe. But, like,
18:50if you look at it, I mean, yes, Madrid have Vinicius, Barcelona have Jamal, but it's
18:56actually, partly, it's because of those stars, or really, because it's only two teams that
19:02really have those stars, that the Spanish League just can't, can no longer command the
19:07interest that the Premier League does. Likewise, obviously, Paris Saint-Germain, or Bayern Munich,
19:13to a degree, because, I mean, really, the Premier League is now, it's sold on its competitiveness,
19:19which sometimes can be overstated, but it is there, given the number of potential champions
19:23there are, given the number of wealthy teams there are. And also, I do wonder, from that
19:27perspective as well, is, well, really, it feels like the Premier League got to a point of such
19:32kind of global hegemony that, actually, it just doesn't need stars in the same way, because
19:36it's so internationally popular. As you suggested there, Lawrence, its popularity is almost self-sustaining
19:42in a way. Because it's funny, like, I was thinking about this this morning. We're going
19:48into the new season at the end of this week, and it's not like, say, Sky or TNT have had
19:54to come up with any sort of, like, theme to sell the Premier League. So La Liga went big
19:59on, say, Spain are the world champions, this is the league that creates the world champions.
20:05As La Liga is trying to do everything to try and kind of wrestle space back, including change
20:09their financial rules for that very reason, the Premier League doesn't really have to do
20:12anything, does it? Like, can you think of any sort of unifying themes?
20:17No, but is that almost a complacency in the sense that there's a curiosity, which we've
20:22discussed about this new season, and how much Xabi Alonso do, for example, Iriola. But
20:28is there, is it slightly lacking that, you know, Guardiola comes up against Arteta and
20:33the narrative and the background to that, or whether it's players, whether it's often
20:37it's managers, isn't it really, in Premier League history that define its kind of superstar
20:41status? Is it lacking that, and might it be sleeping on those storylines? Or does it just,
20:48like you said, Miguel, does it almost just doesn't need it? It's just, it just is a
20:51storyline, it just is a soap opera, whatever happens, the Premier League.
20:54I think the brand recognition of the club, and I hasten to use that term, I think that
20:58is internationally big enough right now. But look, complacency is a potential issue
21:02for the medium to long term. Sorry, Rich.
21:05No, I was going to say just a couple of things. Firstly, Lawrence, you talked about Premier League,
21:08does it create its own stars? Well, one of the names that we've used a couple of times
21:13already today, Mohamed Salah, he was not signed as a global superstar. He was not Vinicius Junior
21:20profile level when he came from Roma. He was a good player from Serie A. And so there is that
21:26element. And looking at Liverpool, the pre-season tour, the player that was getting the loudest cheers
21:34everywhere was Dominic Solverslai, who wasn't even at the World Cup. And he came from RB Leipzig,
21:39which, yes, they play in European competition, sometimes in the Champions League, but he didn't
21:44arrive as a superstar. He's getting that profile as the player of the year at Liverpool, rather than
21:51someone who arrived as a global star. And in terms of the sort of the, I wouldn't say complacency is
21:58the
21:58word, because you talked about the managers. Well, the Premier League, as a brand, cannot say to clubs,
22:04you need to go and appoint someone who is incredibly charismatic and incredibly famous.
22:08Because if so, they'd have all appointed Jose Mourinho in the summer. And they've kind of gone
22:13for different types of appointments. You know, Andoni Arreola is a much less controversial figure
22:19in his comments. He's not won trophies. He's the appointment Liverpool think is the right
22:24appointment. I think Manchester United, I think Jim Radcliffe got very excited by a very charismatic
22:30man and appointed him only to discover he lost every week and in point and instead appointed a man
22:36who tries to say nothing interesting at all. And so, yes, you could say we don't have that superstar
22:41manager. And maybe like a lot of things, it's cyclical. I mean, you do wonder if some of the players
22:47at some of the clubs will emerge as that global, you know, that real global big name. And it is
22:53possible that with the exception of Haaland, for instance, no Premier League player comes in the
22:58top 10 of the Ballon d'Or. I mean, you could argue Declan Rice might, though he didn't have a
23:02great
23:02World Cup. But the Premier League, in its kind of 30 plus years, has often been quite resilient like
23:10that. For much of that time, the best players in the world have been at Real Madrid and Barcelona,
23:14which partly was the Messi-Ronaldo fact. The Premier League has always kind of in its own way gone
23:20from strength to strength. And it's done that sometimes when its teams haven't been doing that
23:25very well, that well in Europe. And at the moment, you'd start off and I'd say on day one, only
23:31Arsenal
23:31of the Premier League clubs look potential Champions League winners. And yet at the moment, I don't think
23:36the Premier League's under any real threat from La Liga or anything else. It's its own self-contained,
23:44seemingly ever booming entity.
23:46All right, we'll take a break there. And when we get back in a couple of minutes, we will
23:51discuss some of the big storylines from this new intriguing Premier League season and we'll make
23:55some predictions as well.
24:01Okay, we've discussed a little bit Liverpool under Areola, Manchester United under Carrick,
24:08City under Maresca. We haven't yet really talked about Chelsea under Xabi Alonso, Miguel, which is
24:13definitely one of the storylines I'm very intrigued by, interested in. And we talked about not having
24:19superstar managers, but he is someone who has obviously won the Bundesliga and potentially could
24:23grow into that kind of, I guess, counterpoint to Arteta at the top of the league. I mean,
24:29how do you think Chelsea are poised coming into the new season?
24:33Were it not for Arsenal, or had Arsenal not won the title last season, which I suppose has
24:39a bit of a parallel with Wenger 2016, I think Chelsea actually could have done a Conte 2016-17
24:45themselves. I think the squad is actually very strong. And look, all this we probably should
24:51put into context, it's maybe all the more remarkable given the amount of noise around
24:55Chelsea, especially as, you know, it finally looks like after two years of this discussion
24:59that Todd Bowley might be selling his stake to Clear Lake. But yeah, I think the squad is
25:03in quite good shape. In fact, I was talking to someone within Chelsea the other day, he
25:07was saying, obviously the kind of miles Lewis Skelly have been raised. Look, if there was
25:11some possibility there, might be interested in it, I don't think Lewis Skelly will leave
25:15Arsenal. But otherwise, they're content with their squad, even in the event of Enzo going,
25:20which I think most people at the club would probably prefer, certainly I think with the
25:24leadership would prefer. I think their attack is particularly strong. If Alonso can get
25:29that integrated, and this is the other side to this, of course, given that Alonso's approach
25:34is very tactically specific, well, you know, he's got three weeks to work on it. And all
25:39of this, obviously, without everything that comes at Real Madrid, which feels like this
25:44only job where you can go like, it's impossible to judge a manager like Alonso just because
25:48it's so idiosyncratic.
25:50Some managers might argue that Chelsea's job is similar in some ways, in the sense that
25:55you can kind of get swallowed by the politics and it can be difficult to work with the hierarchy.
25:59Do you feel like Alonso will be given, I know he's been given this manager title, hasn't
26:02he? Do you feel like it's a slightly different project that he's going to be allowed to unfold
26:07over the next weeks and months and hopefully years?
26:10Yeah, because of Maresca, for all that we're saying, he's no Guardiola. He didn't have
26:15these issues really with the squad. I think Rossini had these issues with the squad because
26:19ultimately he just, he didn't have that level of experience, but he didn't have the stature.
26:23I increasingly feel a bit of sympathy for Rossini, but evidently wasn't ready for it.
26:27And Alonso, I mean, like, one of the themes of the summer to the point I was almost sick
26:30of seeing it was all these like videos of, oh, look, look, look how well Alonso still
26:34passes the ball. Yeah, we've seen that five or six times now. But that immediately points
26:43to like this stature as a player, this charismatic, handsome man who has a major career achievement
26:49in coaching already with him. And as I say, it's not like, I think the Real Madrid comparison
26:55might have been truer if it was Chelsea 15 to 20 years ago, but they just don't have
27:00those Real Madrid style figures. In fact, that's illustrated by the fact that they actually
27:03go for some senior pros to help the chemistry of the dressing room. And I think that will
27:08aid Alonso as well. And yeah, I think they're in, but the more I talk about them, the more
27:13I think I'm kind of, I'd be optimistic for Chelsea's chances.
27:18At the risk of pre-empting our predictions, I've had Chelsea down for second place for a
27:22while, which is partly just my lack of confidence in Liverpool, United and City. But I do think
27:30it's a good squad if they can sell Todd Bowley or failing that amortise him over about 20
27:35years. But no, it's a really good squad. They've got too many players. They need to sell quite
27:41a lot of them. The Enzo Fernandes point is interesting. I think Aston Villa are in a similar
27:45thing with Emi Martinez, who coincidentally is also Argentinian. I think there's probably
27:50some people who'd just be happy to be rid of him. But that Chelsea team, it's interesting
27:58with obviously that the headline acquisitions in one respect were the two oldest ones, Jordan
28:04Henderson and Danny Welbeck, which is in itself remarkable when they paid 117 million for Morgan
28:10Rogers. And yet the first names you almost think of with Chelsea's spending spree are Henderson
28:15and Welbeck with a combined age of 71. But the Maxent Lacroix deal is also different,
28:21you know, signing a centre-back at 26. And in the same way as Bruno Guimaraes, it's signing
28:27a player for right now. So it's a question with Chelsea of how much of it is a good manager
28:36and a good group of players. And how much do we offset that with the stupidity of Chelsea
28:41in the last few years?
28:43Can I just ask you guys, this is a slight tangent, but you just mentioned Henderson and Welbeck
28:46there. I mean, do you think that it's possible to achieve what Chelsea obviously clearly want
28:51to achieve by that, which is to redress their culture, the dressing room culture, to suddenly
28:57set an example, raise the standards, all this stuff on the training pitch and presumably on
29:02the pitch as well, given a number of red cards last season. Can you just do that by buying
29:06two really experienced players? Or do you actually need those players to have, you
29:11know, come through the club in some way, to develop, to understand the club, to, can
29:16you just tack that on and the squad suddenly becomes more mature overnight? I can't think
29:20of many examples of that happening. But I guess, sorry, just one example that is similar,
29:25a slightly different angle was Arteta buying players like Gabriel Jesus and Zinchenko from
29:31Man City with that sort of champions, winners mentality at Arsenal and helping them move to
29:35that level. But obviously it's a very different route that Chelsea have gone down and an unusual
29:40route. It's a really interesting question. I don't have a definitive answer, but if you
29:45look at Jordan Henderson's post-Liverpool career, everywhere he's been, people have
29:50brought him in to do that. You know, he goes to, Gerrard takes him to Al Etifak to make
29:54him captain straight away. Ajax, he becomes captain almost straight away. Brentford, they sign
30:00him as a senior pro when people like Christian Norgard are going. England take him to the World
30:04Cup. And he is, he is enormously respected by so many people. I mean, I think the proper
30:11answer is that you actually have that culture within the club and you don't have to just
30:16try and bolt it on with two very experienced players. But you could certainly argue Henderson
30:22plus Welbeck plus Xabi Alonso plus, you know, I think younger players like Morgan Rogers always
30:29come across as having a very good attitude. So maybe if you put all those things together,
30:34that, that helps change the culture. I think it can happen. I'm trying to think it's definitely
30:39happened with some champion. Ferguson used to do a little bit where he's like, obviously,
30:43you know, United became self-policing to a degree because of all the players they had there,
30:48but he was still, it was kind of like, he'd bring in that kind of pro.
30:51Like a Laurent Blanc, or he came in a bit later in his career, someone like that.
30:54I think Henrik Larsson was an example of one, even though it was only for a couple of months.
30:58Yeah. And everyone raves about kind of like just the, you know, the, how good they are,
31:03the kind of the approach, the mentality, even like, I suppose, Cantona to a degree.
31:07Even that was a very different context, a very different point in his career.
31:11But yeah, like I, I, I think, cause a player like that comes in, especially someone with a background
31:15of achievement and it's immediately someone the players actually look up to that, that they have
31:19that natural authority, they, they're, that assertiveness. And I, I mean, that's something
31:25that Chelsea have been missing as well.
31:27I guess the other team that's particularly interesting in this list of, of, of the wealthiest
31:33clubs, certainly in the so, so-called top six would be Tottenham. They've retained Roberto
31:38Deserbi on a huge salary. They've made some interesting acquisitions, Sandro Tonali, I guess,
31:46Andrew Robertson, Rich, Tottenham. Do you see them having a, a season of a sort of renaissance
31:53under Deserbi?
31:55Yeah, I think they're potentially very good. Like Chelsea, they should benefit from the not
32:00playing in Europe factor. So another manager who could really benefit from time on the training
32:06ground. I think the two midfield signings were really eye-catching because of the transfer fees,
32:11you know, 185 million between them for Tonali and Fernandes. But partly also because it felt with
32:17Fernandes, they went so high to take Man United out of the equation. But just also in terms of,
32:23I was surprised they signed them both. They already actually already had some good midfielders.
32:27They've got a whole bunch of people that can play as a number 10. Some of them are injured at
32:31the
32:31moment, admittedly, and maybe some of them will always be injured. I think in terms of the culture
32:35that we've been talking about with Chelsea, the Andy Robertson signings, really interesting.
32:40And as is the Cristian Romero exit of another person who, coincidentally, is also Argentinian.
32:48So I've been wondering if Robertson will actually become Tottenham captain, because I suspect he
32:53hasn't joined them to just sit on the bench. I think with Spurs, maybe some of the questions are
32:58the forward line where so far they haven't signed anyone. I could definitely see Tottenham going from
33:0417th to 17th to potentially qualifying for the Champions League this year.
33:09And OK, a lot of that is looking at a team on paper compared to what we'll see on the
33:14pitch. But I'd be really excited about Tottenham this year.
33:18To a degree as well. I mean, we've mentioned it twice now, but you've got the, there's an
33:22element of the Villa-Newcastle dynamic here where the season is so intense and European
33:28football is so demanding that anyone that doesn't have European football, especially in
33:32this era where coaching and tactics themselves are necessarily so much more integrated and
33:39benefit so much more from time on the training pitch, that that suddenly actually is a huge
33:44differential. And that's why I think Chelsea and Spurs have a huge advantage. And it's
33:48why unless England continues this thing of eight to nine teams, qualify for Europe every
33:52season, but I'm sorry, more so of kind of, you've got one or two big teams always slipping
33:57out of that. Then you could have this kind of a bit of a boom bust for certain teams in
34:03terms of their league position. And it could end up this hugely transformative factor every
34:08season on the table where you can have teams like shoot up in that way. And just actually
34:14because I've been, I've made numerous references to the 60s and 70s today, but the biggest example
34:19actually of an old head coming in was a former Tottenham player in 1972 or 71, Dave Mackay
34:26going from Tottenham to Brian Clough's Derby County and they immediately win the league.
34:32There you go.
34:33And just to sort of underline that in terms of Champions League qualification, a team who
34:38were very intense at their best, Eddie Howe's Newcastle.
34:42Yeah.
34:43They came fourth and fifth in seasons when they weren't in Europe. They found it tougher when
34:47they were in Europe. Unai Emery's Aston Villa have done a better job of balancing Europe and
34:51England. But if you look at Newcastle almost as the model for Deserby's Tottenham, I think
34:57that could bode quite well.
34:58So for all these new managers and new projects happening, obviously the beacon of stability
35:04is Arteta at Arsenal, champions now. So they've broken through that sort of hex of not believing
35:10that they could win the league. They know they can do it. They're clearly, I think, the
35:13favourites certainly after the Community Shield as well. And the depth, the talent they're able
35:17to bring on and also not bring on in the case of, I think Max Dalman didn't play and
35:22others. Saliba's obviously injured. Very impressive. Ominous for some of the others.
35:27Miguel, where are Arsenal now? I mean, are there any flaws in what looks like a very complete
35:32squad to me?
35:34I mean, there are some potential caveats to all this. One of them actually is Arteta himself,
35:40who at the same time that I would say absolutely he's got an argument to be one of the best
35:43coaches
35:44in the world for all the debate he provokes online. I mean, look what he's done with
35:47Arsenal. He is so intense though, both psychologically, in terms of kind of what he demands from his
35:54teams, in terms of kind of training, that you would wonder whether there would be a certain
35:59burnout at some point. And I think that burnout would have been a lot likelier had Arsenal
36:05won the title this year. In fact, I think actually that could end up being a bit of a kind
36:09of a sliding doors moment in English football. If Arsenal don't go on from that two undefeated
36:14City in April, don't win the league. Arteta is potentially gone by October, November as
36:19the team collapses, having not done it. To now, and I feel it's actually perfectly legitimate
36:26to hold both views, that actually they could kick on now because of the effect of winning
36:30in that way. Connected to that, I suppose, is a style of football they've been playing
36:35for the last two years and how they wanted to elevate the level of their attack. They still
36:41want a left winger. Vinicius, obviously, as we said, one of the most amazing things
36:48about that, look, he could do a whole other podcast in Real Madrid, but that looked like
36:52a move that made sense for everyone, including what Arsenal lead in the team, what Vinicius
36:56could have been, given Real Madrid and their abundance of players, given they needed a
36:59midfielder. And they actually might go in for Zubomendi now. But it didn't happen.
37:06But for all that might, I think, feed into a bit of perception that Arsenal could be, they
37:12could get into the same issue and have too many minimalist games and potentially get caught.
37:16If I'm speaking to people around the claw, but I'm doing a bigger piece in this ahead
37:19of the game on Friday, and pretty much a state of the champions thing, there is a fair bit
37:25of optimism about that they're going to have something that really they haven't had for
37:29two years. And that is Saka, Odegaard and Havertz properly fit together. And like Odegaard
37:36comes in now on the back of a good World Cup. After that, it kind of weighed over his entire
37:40previous season where, I mean, they won the league with pretty much none of those players
37:45playing regularly. And like their best scoring season under Arteta, 23-24, where they got
37:5191 goals in 38 games, 38 league games. That was with those three kind of almost always
37:57in the pitch. And because they understand each other so well. And if they can do that, then
38:02suddenly you're talking about a very solid team where actually a kind of a flowing attack
38:07that can kind of restore what they used to be about a bit more with the potential of maybe
38:11another left winger to come. And I think that's where suddenly, for all that we've been
38:16talking about Arsenal being kind of one of the few knowns and stability, that can actually
38:21just offer a bit of spark again and ensure they're different champions this way. And
38:25also, the assurance that comes with champions feeds into that.
38:30I think there's something interesting in the Arsenal recruitment this summer. And not just,
38:35we've talked about Guimara a bit and Christos Solis had an excellent game in the Community
38:39Shield. But in terms of Arteta and his safety first instincts, I know they've got a couple
38:44of defensive injuries. But I have been surprised by the extent to which they seem to have been
38:49pursuing Esri Concer or Jarrell Concer or maybe someone whose name rhymes with Concer or Concer.
38:56When you could have thought, put all the remaining money towards a real attacking superstar.
39:03Vinicius obviously would have cost a lot. Clearly, Chelsea blew them out of the water for Morgan
39:07Rodgers by going as high as they did. And there were times last season where they felt quite
39:13prosaic. And by the time you got to the latter stages of the Champions League, Arsenal were the
39:17team who had the least sort of creativity and incision in attack of those teams. But having
39:23said that, Kai Havertz was excellent in the final. But Kai Osaka's got a hat-trick in a
39:29World Cup third place game. Martin Odegaard, I thought, was absolutely superb when Norway beat
39:34Brazil. And you could say with the potential to improve, as Miguel said, is already there if
39:39you can just get them fit enough. Just on the market as well. I think this is where
39:44Arsenal have been a bit adaptive, I would say, as well. Because I think they'd be willing to put
39:48all the money in, or a lot of money into a huge star because it's worth it, like a Vinicius.
39:52The only thing is, there aren't too many of those players available. So, for example, with Morgan
39:56Rodgers, I mean, the reason they ultimately didn't go for him is because while they liked him a lot,
40:00they didn't think he was worth the fee that Chelsea paid. It's a bit similar with Bradley
40:05Barcala, although I think that there could be a bit yet to play there, just with how the market
40:09goes. And I suppose it does point to this one element of the market, one factor in the market,
40:18and that pretty crucial and important difference between a very effective attacker and someone
40:23who can regularly make a difference between what we're talking about, that kind of genuinely
40:27elite world star.
40:30All right, shall we discuss the bottom of the table before we get onto our predictions?
40:35Coventry, Ipswich and Hull coming up from the Championship. Frank Lampard's Coventry,
40:40I think I'm officially supposed to say. Miguel, any chance of, I mean, yeah, what chance do
40:48we see of these teams surviving? And I feel like a little bit of optimism just in the sense
40:54that some of the existing Premier League teams, as we've discussed already, a lot of them
40:58are quite a similar level. It's not like, you know, there's teams there that can be jumped
41:02ahead of.
41:04Yeah, although the one thing, it comes back to what we're saying, isn't it? It's kind
41:06of recruitment, wage bill, and ultimately level your squad. So Ipswich, to be fair, I think
41:11have spent a lot. It's something like the fifth biggest spenders in Europe or something like
41:16that, aren't they, at the time we were recording?
41:17And Coventry as well, yeah.
41:19Gary O'Neill, a safe pair of hands. Coventry, I mean, despite the fact Coventry went up as champions,
41:25I felt they had to kind of, like, it's often that thing between the kind of the championship
41:30and what might be right for the championship and what might be right for the Premier League
41:34are two different things. And look, people might cut this up and make it Coventry fans
41:38abusing me. But it did feel, I still feel they've got more to go in terms of quality.
41:43And it's, Hull as well haven't come through the playoffs. I think Hull and Coventry probably
41:47have more of a battle. But that is potentially all kind of disrupted and distorted by the fact
41:55that there's so many teams above them where you're kind of thinking, hmm, not too sure
42:00there who gets up. I mean, Fulham, again, they've recruited with a fair bit of clout.
42:07But, like, Arbelo is a massive unknown as well. I mean, look, again, we'd say you can't read
42:12too much into Real Madrid because of what they are. But even, like, we've got no evidence
42:17of what he's like in a job similar to Fulham. And there'd be Piersa. I know, look, Palace
42:24have been a very well-run club for 13 or 14 years. They've been in the Premier League.
42:29I do know that the appointment of Piersa did raise a few eyebrows around some of their
42:35rivals. And obviously, look, they've still got quality in that squad, at least Wharton,
42:40Mateta. You see, you'd think that should be enough. But there is, it does feel there's
42:45that opening for kind of a few recent Premier League kind of fixtures to suddenly potentially
42:53start dropping down.
42:55Last year was interesting and I thought really encouraging in that after a couple of years
42:59where the three promoter teams just went straight back down again, to have two of them stay up
43:04was really good. Sunderland, you know, it was clear from very early on they were staying up.
43:09Leeds, there was a point in November where it looked like it could go either way. And then
43:12they went on this incredible run of 25 games in which they only lost five of them.
43:18At the moment, I do feel it's hard to see any of Coventry, Ipswich or Sunderland doing
43:24a Leeds. Sorry, Coventry, Ipswich or Hull doing a Sunderland or doing a Leeds. I wonder
43:31if Coventry stand the best chance of staying up of the three of them. But I mean, Ipswich
43:36is an interesting one in terms of the expenditure. I mean, a couple of hours ago, I happened to
43:41look at Schalke, who were promoted to the Bundesliga and a massive great club. And so far,
43:46they've spent about 3 million euros this summer. And Ipswich in the Premier League have spent
43:51about 150 million, which they actually spent well over 100 million the last time they were
43:56up and it went back down without coming that close either. I share some of Miguel's doubts
44:03about Fulham. It's worth noting that last year, their two top scorers were Harry Wilson and
44:08Raul Jimenez. And I do think Marco Silva was probably a bit underrated as well. I think he
44:15always did an excellent job. I don't think Sunderland will go back down, but I think it's
44:21interesting. You sometimes have a team where every player has a good year the same year.
44:26And then what happens the year after? And to go back to Ipswich's past, if we remember
44:31the season where they came up under George Burley and they finished fifth and then they
44:35got relegated in the second year when they were in Europe, I think they had the problem
44:39that all of their players had a good year. This is the first year and not the second year.
44:43And so that could drag someone down. And last year, I think clubs like West Ham and Wolves
44:50may be operated on the principle of don't worry, the three promoted clubs will go straight back
44:54down here. Wolves in particular. And they got really caught out by that. So even though we do
44:59have a lot of clubs who can be, see, much of a muchness, there are times where if they get
45:05trapped in that downward spiral and if someone else goes on a good run, things could change.
45:12All right. Shall we finish making some Premier League predictions? Then I'm sure these will
45:18serve to embarrass us in a few months' time, particularly given how, as we've discussed,
45:23quite unpredictable what a lot of these teams are. But let's start with, I mean, I think I can guess
45:27who you might predict wins the league, but should we lay out a top five?
45:31Make an official.
45:32Sort of, we make an official, some sort of order. Maybe, Miguel, start with you. What's
45:37your top five for the Premier League this season?
45:40Arsenal and Chelsea in order. Then probably, not necessarily in order. Spurs, Liverpool.
45:54I'm wavering all of Liverpool, City and United. With City, I'm sort of just convinced, I think
45:59they'll ultimately, they'll spend enough and, like, the quality of the squad will be sufficient
46:03to get them through. Which kind of makes me take, like, I mean, United are unknown as
46:07well. Just because, like, suddenly, there's a different pressure on Carrick now. He's the
46:12established man, rather than being actually the kind of, the caretaker. They, like, they've
46:19got signers to make. The squad is thin. Carrick has spoken about it. So I think I'm going to
46:23go, and also we've got European football. I think Liverpool, surely players like Ezek
46:27will come on. So yeah, I'll go with Arsenal, Chelsea for a second, and then some variation
46:32of Spurs, Liverpool, City.
46:37Okay.
46:38I don't like agreeing with Miguel.
46:41Famously.
46:42And I don't often do it. I mean, as mentioned earlier, I already had Chelsea down for second
46:47behind Arsenal. I've currently got it as City third, Liverpool fourth, Spurs fifth, and I've
46:54got United outside my top five as well. And I think Villa I've got for seventh, because
46:59I think they look weaker after some of their sales.
47:03It's hard to know with Villa, though, isn't it? I mean, obviously, they've got Emery.
47:06But then the danger with even a manager like Emery, who's been so suited to the club, is
47:09suddenly when there's a huge transition like this, there's just suddenly that sense that,
47:13like, an effect can wear off. There's too much change. They're in a slightly precarious
47:19situation there.
47:21Losing Rodgers and Tielemans in the same summer, they obviously didn't intend to lose Tielemans.
47:26So I think that could come at a cost. And also, Villa have got Champions League this
47:31year. And whilst they've been used to playing in Europe every year, it was notable. The
47:36last season they were in the Champions League, they didn't qualify for it again. Whereas
47:40the seasons when they've been in the Conference League or the Europa League, they've managed
47:44to do that and qualify for the Champions League.
47:47So you're both predicting Tottenham to finish in the top four, sounds like?
47:51Top five.
47:53Okay, bold. I like it.
47:55I think he's going to have a promising, a good season, I think. Brentford. Again, stability,
48:01well-run, know what they're about.
48:04Yeah, yeah. Well, I mean, I would follow both of you and put Arsenal top. And I am a little
48:11bit more optimistic about Liverpool. I mean, I know that, as we've discussed, they've got
48:14some holes in their squad. I think Liverpool fans, speaking to them, are quite excited.
48:18I think partly I hadn't realised just how bored they were by Arne Slott's style of play.
48:24And they're quite intrigued and potentially excited by the idea of Iriola and
48:28Verts sort of having a bit of a free reign in number 10 and obviously Isaac. And if TK
48:33comes back and has an impact, I think Liverpool, I'm going to put Liverpool second ahead of
48:39Manchester United. I think United will continue to be quite consistent and solid without challenging
48:43for the title. Chelsea fourth. And then I think City might finish fifth. But I say all
48:49of that with trepidation because it's difficult to be too confident. Let's talk about relegation
48:55then. I mean, you've both mentioned Fulham. Do you actually think they'll go down or do
48:58you think one of those, I mean, yeah, as we've said before, the three teams who get promoted
49:05often go straight back down. Will that be the case this year, Miguel?
49:09Well, Coventry, Hull. I was almost tempted to throw Everton in, you know that? There's
49:15sometimes a danger with Moyes. Well, there's an initial stability with Moyes. He can sometimes
49:21kind of recede with him as well. I mean, they've probably got too much quality. And look, it's
49:24Everton. People have intended them to go down for years. They're also out of the woods
49:29in terms of kind of all the recent kind of external issues. They're in the new stadium.
49:34So that would be pushed, I'd say. But I do think they might change manager mid-season.
49:40Fulham, as I said, are precarious. Some people are talking about Newcastle to go down. I think
49:45they will spend, which will change that. This is always the thing about predictions at the
49:49start of the season that A, managers change. B, you've got two weeks of the transfer window
49:55left as well as changes to come in January. So it's like, I mean, there's the potential
50:00for a lot of variation. Yeah, I think maybe Fulham to join Coventry and Hull. And that's
50:09only, I think, I'm saying that to prevent myself saying the obvious of the team, the
50:14three that came up are going to go straight back down.
50:16Yeah. Rich?
50:19I am going to say the obvious.
50:21The three that came down.
50:22Yeah. I hope I'm wrong in this because every year I want to see someone stay up. But yeah,
50:29I'm not convinced any of them will. And as I said, I've got reservations about Fulham,
50:36about Sunderland, about one or two others, though I have more faith in David Moyes in Everton
50:41than Miguel does. But I think probably the boring answer from me.
50:47I'm going to, I do this with little confidence, but I'm going to send Crystal Palace down with
50:53Hull and with Coventry. Yeah. Yeah. I just think that squad has just been gradually depleted
51:01over a few years. And there's going to be a club, isn't there? I guess a little bit like
51:07West Ham last season, that kind of club who you feel like have been around for a long time,
51:11who get themselves certainly in some kind of battle. And I think it might be Palace. I agree
51:16with you there, Rich, on Sunderland. I think they'll have a far more difficult season,
51:20as is often the case with that team that comes up and does very well and finishes in the top
51:24half. The next season they tend to then have a battle. I think Sunderland will do. We will see.
51:30I'm sure this will be clipped up and made to embarrass us in a few months' time. But we'll
51:34have, the Independent will have its official predictions on the website, I think, in a couple
51:39of days' time. So we'll get all those written up. We will leave it there. We'll be back
51:43next week. Thanks, Rich. Thanks, Miguel. Thank you to our producer, Jamie MacDonald. This
51:48podcast is part of the Independent Podcast Network. So you can check out all the other
51:52bits and pieces on there. Thank you for listening and we'll be back very soon. Bye-bye.
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