00:00I'm not going to do some sort of parade around and tell you, rah, rah, the Niners are going to
00:06beat the Rams.
00:06The Rams are really good.
00:08The Seahawks, I think, are obviously very dangerous, very good.
00:15I think the Niners are too.
00:18The more I'm just really trying to deep dive positional battles, strategy, anybody can get hurt.
00:28You know, Sam Donald, Matt Stafford, Brock Purdy, and other key players, Miles Garrett, Nick Bosa, whatever, anybody can get
00:35hurt.
00:35I have no idea how that's going to go.
00:39But I have a lot of confidence that this 49er team, minus more unbelievably bad breaks, is going to do
00:50really well this year.
00:52I think they're a really good team.
00:55Like, how good?
00:57And I know you don't want to put out a prediction.
01:01They are one of the teams that has a shot to do the whole damn thing.
01:04Are they a 12-win team in the regular season?
01:06I mean, that's like...
01:08The over-under is 9.5.
01:10So I'm sensing you're taking the over.
01:12I would take the over on 9.5.
01:13And if it was 10.5, would you take the over?
01:18If I'm getting odds on that, yeah.
01:21Like, I think that...
01:22And again, when you put a number on it, it's kind of like, do you mean from a predictive standpoint
01:27or do you mean in terms of labeling the talent that they have?
01:32I mean, they could win 13.
01:34They could win 9.
01:36But I think that they're a very good team.
01:40I think they're going to be a force to be reckoned with.
01:42If I put together a list of teams out of the NFC that I, like, realistically, I could wrap my
01:51head around them winning the banana.
01:54The whole banana.
01:56I would say that list is this year, I think that list is, gosh, maybe five teams long.
02:15Five teams, I think.
02:16And you'd put three of them from the West?
02:17Yes.
02:18And then you'd throw in...
02:20Dallas.
02:21And then I want to say Detroit.
02:26I want to say the Detroit Lions.
02:28I think that one of those five teams will go to the Super Bowl from the NFC.
02:33That's my feeling.
02:34That's gut feeling.
02:35That's breakdown of schedule.
02:38That's breakdown of offense, defense.
02:41That's breakdown of skill, position, talent.
02:44There are other good teams.
02:46Green Bay is a good team.
02:47Chicago is dynamic offensively.
02:50The Philadelphia Eagles are always, you know, they're the Philadelphia Eagles.
02:55But I think one of those five teams goes to the Super Bowl from the NFC.
02:59Okay.
02:59Rams, Seahawks, Niners, Cowboys, Lions.
03:02And I don't even know if I would feel comfortable taking the field.
03:06I mean, I'd like to have Philly and Green Bay.
03:08I don't think that Chicago is quite at that level throughout the South.
03:12And then you're left with Arizona and Minnesota and the Commanders who, you know, I don't know if they're necessarily
03:18going to be that good either.
03:19So if I had your group of five or the other 11, I probably would take the group of five.
03:24You think so?
03:25Yes, because I think that the Rams are a big, a big heavy favorite.
03:29And I think that Seattle and the Niners are live.
03:32And, you know, you've got Detroit and Dallas as well.
03:34You know what I would love one of us to do over the next couple of days?
03:38And you are way more equipped to do this than I am because you just know where to find this
03:44stuff quicker than I do.
03:46I would love to know how often, in at least recent NFL history, 10, 20 years, how often has the
03:55preseason Super Bowl favorite gone to the Super Bowl?
04:00Just gone to it.
04:02Just gone.
04:02How likely is that, that the Rams go to the Super Bowl based on the last couple of decades?
04:08Because they are the clear Super Bowl favorite.
04:12And I wonder how often that happens.
04:15Because one of the things that I always kind of fight back with when people, you know, Bucky is being
04:21somewhat performative.
04:22But whenever anyone is that definitive at the beginning of the year before it's even started, I always fight back
04:30with something that feels flimsy.
04:32But it's true.
04:34I'm just like, the NFL season doesn't work that way.
04:37That's one of the reasons that this division, I'll acknowledge how difficult the division is.
04:43But I also don't, it doesn't scare me that much.
04:46I feel like a lot of Niner fans feel like the division is preventative of something.
04:51The idea that the Rams and Seahawks will just show up and win 12, 13, or 14 games again, because
04:59that's what everybody says is going to happen, I push back.
05:05And what's my reasoning?
05:06I don't have a great reason other than history.
05:09Every year is the reason.
05:10It just doesn't work that way.
05:12So, if you ask me, for example, because all three teams won what?
05:17They all won double digit, was it 12?
05:19Yep.
05:1912, and then Seahawks won 14?
05:22That sounds right, yeah.
05:23Whatever it was last year.
05:25All three teams, double digits is too easy because there's 17 games.
05:32But if I said all three teams, 12 or more wins again, would you say yes or no?
05:37No.
05:38Yeah, I agree.
05:39No.
05:39I agree.
05:40Like, 10 wins or more?
05:42Yeah.
05:42I'd give you all three will get 10 or more.
05:44How about 11?
05:4511 is a little bit tougher.
05:47I think the Niners are a team that is looking at probably a 10 and 7, in my opinion, based
05:52on a number of different factors, one of which is the way the end of the season schedule stacks
05:59up.
05:59It's tough.
05:59You've got Seattle here at home, and Seattle is off the bye, and you don't get to play
06:05the Rams at, quote unquote, home down in L.A.
06:09You do have to go to Mexico City and take on Minnesota, which they're not a very daunting
06:14team, but that's another travel spot.
06:16That's an altitude.
06:17I think that the schedule for the Niners is not totally ideal.
06:21The rest, differential advantage is almost negligible, but a couple of your spots, I think,
06:27are difficult ones.
06:28Yeah.
06:29I think that's all fair.
06:31But I also think a lot of the points you just made about the Niners, those things ring
06:35true for the Rams and Seahawks, too.
06:38Like, those are...
06:39In ways, the Seahawks have a first-place schedule that they have to face, so yeah.
06:42They do, yeah.
06:44I mean, if I just, you know, without, and I don't know, you know, rest, advantage, disadvantage,
06:48I haven't done the deep dives that you've done on this, but the Seahawks are going to
06:53start things off.
06:54First of all, I feel like that we won the Super Bowl home opener NFL kickoff thing.
07:01Usually, the home team wins.
07:02So, like, I think the Seahawks will beat the Patriots on Wednesday night.
07:08The traditional opener.
07:09Right, and then after that, they've got to hit the road, but it's teams you figure.
07:12They can kind of handle Arizona and Washington.
07:15Like, I could totally see the Seahawks being 3-0 three weeks in.
07:20But then, you know, Chargers, Niners, Broncos, Chiefs, Bears, and then they hit the back half
07:26of their schedule, which includes the Niners, the Cowboys, the Eagles, the Rams twice, the
07:31Rams twice in the last three weeks of the season.
07:33So, gauntlet.
07:35Gauntlet everywhere.
07:37And I'm sure that's true for the Los Angeles Rams as well.
07:42You know, just by the fact that a quarter of these teams' schedules are against each other
07:47sort of automatically makes them hard schedules, I think.
07:51For the most part.
07:52And I do look at, you know, the rest differential.
07:54Seattle's got the fourth nicest schedule in terms of rest.
07:57They have a plus nine.
07:59They've got five games where they're going to have more rest than their opponent.
08:04And I know that one of those games is, as you mentioned, coming straight off the top
08:08where you go from a Wednesday into a Sunday.
08:10And so that's a plus four automatically there.
08:13But I just think about them facing the Niners off their bye and the Rams in the Niner game.
08:18This one is going to be a really tough one, a litmus test for the Niners, because if you're
08:24able to go out there and get this win, I do think that the way that they're going about
08:28their schedule on the back end could be a little bit challenging.
08:31Although you've got Arizona and then you've got Miami before you actually, you know, ramp
08:36up and take on Denver.
08:38Rams, four of their first five games of the year against playoff teams from last year.
08:42And then listen, they've got their bye week 11.
08:45And then watch this, starting week 12, Packers, Chiefs, Niners, Cowboys, Seahawks, Bucs, Seahawks.
08:52That's the Rams final six.
08:54Oh, yeah.
08:55Boosh.
08:55Tough.
08:56As my friend might say.
08:58Right.
08:58I mean, the Bucs, we don't know exactly what they'll be, but everybody's high on the Cowboys
09:02and you've got Seattle twice and the Niners and the Chiefs.
09:05And the Packers.
09:06Yep.
09:07Yeah.
09:07It's, I mean, yeah, so it's a lot.
09:10Anyway, yeah, I think that you could convince me of, like, sure, the Rams are the Super Bowl
09:18favorite.
09:18So I'll buy that.
09:21I'll completely buy stock in the Los Angeles Rams this year.
09:25But my surprise level, if any one of those three teams wins the NFC West, my surprise level
09:33will be null and void, like Zippo, would not shock me in the slightest if you told me that
09:41at the end of the year it's any one of the three.
09:43Only Arizona.
09:44That would knock me over.
09:46But the other three, I think they are all very capable.
09:50Would you be more surprised if one of the three didn't make the playoffs?
09:53Or would that be less surprising?
09:57No, like, I think from a talent standpoint, they all belong, but the math makes it difficult.
10:04Like, all three are going to have to be so good outside the division or kind of do what
10:10they did last year, which is everybody shared wins and losses with each other.
10:15Nobody ran through the division and went 5-1 or 6-0.
10:19Like, Rams and Seahawks split.
10:21Niners and Rams split.
10:23Niners and Seahawks split.
10:24Everybody split.
10:25So if you're all 2-2 against each other, it kind of keeps your records afloat, and then
10:30they were all really good against everybody else, and so all of them went to the playoffs.
10:34But no, it wouldn't surprise me if one of them misses at all.
10:37Yeah, it's a little bit of a gauntlet when you get into, like, you know, if you go 10-7
10:41or 11-6, and you mentioned Green Bay, and Chicago was there last year, and, you know,
10:46you're certainly high on Detroit.
10:47Many people are, and people are up on Dallas, and the Giants seem to think that they're going
10:52to be really good, and Philadelphia is always right there.
10:54So you start to run out of spots for everyone.
10:57I'm high on Detroit, except for, they're going to stop going for it on all the fourth downs.
11:03They're going to stop the swashbuckler thing.
11:05No, they won't.
11:06I know they won't, but I would, I think they'll do better if they would actually have, I don't
11:11know, some sort of a conscience.
11:13Just, you know what I mean?
11:15Don't do it automatically.
11:17Just like it's fourth down, we go for it around here.
11:20Just, can you just think a little bit through situations?
11:26Sometimes that's not the right answer.
11:28A little more open-minded, I guess, is what I'm asking for.
11:31I don't know, going to the punter?
11:32Yeah.
11:33Dan Campbell.
11:34Like, use your kickers.
11:37Once a game.
11:38Something like that.
11:39They actually were 10th last year in fourth down attempts in the NFL.
11:44Yeah.
11:44And I'm kind of with you.
11:45Like, it feels like they always go for it, like every single time.
11:48But, and you look at the teams that actually do, the Jets had the most attempts because
11:52you're the Jets.
11:54Because.
11:54And, I mean, you're not going to win.
11:56So, just go for it.
Comments