Polling Expert Issues Major Warning To Kamala! Early Signs Point Towards A Trump Victory!

Doc Rich

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Transcript

00:00There is a poll that was the most accurate poll of 2020 in the presidential election,

00:07and they have just dropped a poll of likely voters. Margin of error, 2 percent in the two

00:16way race, two way race between Trump and Harris. They have Trump up 2.7 percentage points in the

00:24full field, which includes the third parties like Jill Stein, Cornel West. They have Trump up

00:293.4 percentage points. Looking at independents, they have Trump up nine. And listen to this,

00:39looking at racial breakdowns among black voters, they have Harris at 67 and Trump at 32.

00:47I would suggest to you, this is why she's everywhere. This is why she did Fox News. This

00:53is why she's going to do NBC. This is why she's going to do a CNN town hall. They're in

00:57a panic

00:58that she's going to lose this race. Yeah, boy. Oh, boy.

01:08So as you heard there, some absolutely amazing numbers that we are hearing and seeing. Now,

01:17none of this matters if we don't show up and do our part. Okay. I have to say it,

01:22and I'm going to continue to say it. I know it's probably annoying for some folks, but I just feel

01:29I have a personal responsibility to add that caveat before we get into another great video

01:37because, you know, I don't want anybody to get comfortable because as you heard there,

01:42Trump has a 0.7 percent lead, less than 1 percent. So we still got to show up and do

01:50our part.

01:51Well, that was according to that poll, right? So we still have to show up and do our part

01:56to ensure that he walks back into the White House because, boy, if Democrats can do something about

02:02it, they will. Okay. They will. Now, you know, it's getting bad when somebody like Chris Cuomo

02:10has flipped almost and he's coming out and saying some of the stuff that he's saying. What y'all about

02:16to hear? I probably won't show y'all the whole thing because I got another clip at the end that

02:21I want to show you guys that's really, really important. So, yeah, I'll just play a part of

02:25this and it's still good. Let's dive in. Kamala Harris is not a godsend. All right. You people

02:33didn't even like her six months ago. Now, all of a sudden, she's black female Jesus. The way Obama

02:41was black Jesus. And let me tell you something. He had a lot more going for him than Kamala Harris

02:46does. And not just as firsts go, but his type of campaigning, his type of persuasion,

02:53his charisma. Bing, bing, bing, bing, bing, bing, bing, bing, bing. Winner, winner, winner,

02:59chicken dinner. Okay. Because they're trying to compare, well, Democrats are, Kamala to Obama.

03:06Obama. And I think a lot of black people, we learned our lesson on looking at somebody and

03:12saying, well, that's a black person. So, Hey, it's going to be great. Like, no, it wasn't. So

03:16if anything, you can blame Obama for Kamala getting absolutely, um, I'm trying to keep it PG here

03:26for Kamala losing. Okay. We'll say that I had some colorful language that I was going to use

03:33with that, but I'll pass. But, um, yeah, you, you can blame Obama for that. She is not black Jesus.

03:42Okay. She, she is not the savior at all whatsoever. I don't care how much Democrats try to paint her

03:48as

03:48one. She is not, but, uh, I got another clip that I want to show you from Fox news and

03:56you know,

03:57it's really getting ugly when Democrats are running ads, right? Democrats are running ads,

04:06basically trying to say that they were standing next to Trump on this topic of discussion.

04:14Check it out.

04:15Very interesting. The Democrats in these tough races are now crediting Donald Trump trying to

04:21link themselves to it. Here's a montage. Watch. Casey bucked Biden to protect fracking and he

04:28sided with Trump to end NAFTA and put tariffs on China to stop them from cheating.

04:33Tammy Baldwin got president Trump, the signer made in America bill. And then she got president

04:38Biden to make it permanent. This is wild to me. I don't see Republicans trying to link themselves

04:43to Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.

04:46Lawrence, I thought Donald Trump was a threat to democracy. I thought he was a danger to this

04:52country. What you just, and Bob Casey voted to impeach him twice. What you saw here was an,

04:58an admission from Democrats that Trump policies work for America and they're running away from Kamala

05:06I hear it. Bing, bing, bing, bing, bing, bing, bing. It is five alarm panic on the Democrat side,

05:14because when you have Democrats siding with Trump, using Trump as a, in a political ad saying, Hey,

05:23no, actually I agreed with Trump on this. Trump was the guy, right? You got some major issues when

05:29you have them running away from the Democrat nominee Kamala. Uh, yeah, that is saying a whole,

05:36whole lot. And you know what else says a lot? Now this isn't everything, but this does say something.

05:43The betting odds. More than $2 billion have been bet on the election already.

05:49Everywhere says Trump is favored. It's just a question how much. And so my site averages these

05:53all together. It aggregates five different markets where people bet money and it puts them all

05:59together in one average. The better is really, you know, they look at all sorts of historical data.

06:03They look at trends, they get a feel for what's going on. Um, and right now they say Arizona is

06:1070% chance that it'll go for Trump. Um, so that's how they're kind of converting the polls,

06:15plus a whole lot of other stuff. That looks like a whole lot of red to me. That, that right

06:21there,

06:22right there without Michigan or Wisconsin, that right there is a Trump win. That's a Trump win.

06:29That's a W good night. See ya. Kamala.

06:36I was going to say better luck next time, but don't, don't run again.

06:42No, actually do run again. I take that back. Cause that's, that's an easy,

06:47that's an easy opponent. All right. That's easy opponent.

06:49Uh, uh, but what I also want to, uh, show you guys is Nate Silver's bulletin.

06:59He's also flipped, right? You got him flipping and increasing, slowly increasing that gap.

07:11Uh, but not only that, we got to talk about Mark Halperin and what he recently had to say. Now,

07:19I showed you guys the clip of Mark. I believe it was yesterday or the day before yesterday. Anyway,

07:25I showed you guys a clip from Mark the other day. That was really good in this one. Oh boy.

07:33Now early vote. John Ralston is the, uh, is the David Broder of the silver state. He's just been

07:40there forever. He's a great reporter and he understands how to read the early vote. Let's

07:46put up what John Ralston wrote overnight about the early vote in his state. Okay. All right.

07:52A little hard to read, but I wanted you to see the chart here. It's pretty easy to explain the

07:56Clark firewall. That's Clark County where Las Vegas is, where the vast majority of the state's

07:59population is, has all but collapsed. The Democratic usually have a huge lead. There's 4,500 votes.

08:07The rurals are overperforming their share of the electorate. And he says, you can read this and it's

08:13linked. It's linked in my sub stack. It's too soon to call it a trend, but this was a huge

08:18day for

08:19Republicans. They are ahead now in Washoe County too. A few more days like this though,

08:23and the Democratic better wedding will reach epic proportions. As we said yesterday, don't

08:29overread the early vote. Okay. It can change. We don't know exactly who's casting these ballots,

08:36how they're voting, et cetera. But every analyst I've talked to in the last 24 hours, including people

08:41who speak publicly say, if this continues, Donald Trump can't lose because the Democrats can't possibly

08:48do well enough on election day. So, Sean, tell people how you view this data now. We've got one

08:55more day in the bank. Every state is either bad for Democrats or not good for Democrats. How are you

09:02reading it? I mean, like I said, I've spent cycles on my heels trying to explain the cannibalization of

09:09election day voters. I had Seth Keschel on the show last night. You've had him on before. We went

09:15through the data. It is unbelievable. Like it's almost too good to be true on our side. So I don't

09:21want to get giddy or excited. But when someone like Ralston and just out of context, I mean,

09:26Ralston has not been a friend to Republicans over the decades. It has to admit. But he's,

09:31but he's, he's mostly an honest broker. He's not, he's not sure. I'll, I'll let, okay. I,

09:36I just, I, I have a different view, but I will say this when he, when my view, which is

09:43what you

09:43were asking is when someone like Ralston has to admit something like this, that's a big deal.

09:48And so I, I feel very, very good about not just Nevada, but I think the folks in North Carolina

09:55that I talked to and the folks in Georgia are absolutely giddy. Yeah. And Nevada, of course,

10:00I've said, all my sources have said that of the seven States, that is Trump's worst. And yet this is

10:05what's happening in the early vote. Dan, before you say how you're hearing Democrats are feeling

10:11about this, what could be causing this? Besides the fact that Donald Trump went from saying only

10:16the devil votes early, what could be causing democratic underperformance here?

10:23Look, I mean, it's a great question and no doubt in Wilmington, they are frantically trying to figure

10:28that out. I, you know, I think part of this is if you look at just not just in Nevada,

10:33but so far,

10:35Democrats are underperforming in Philadelphia and Atlanta, and now we're seeing Las Vegas.

10:40And what have we been talking about on here now for, you know, months, problems with Latinos,

10:46problems with black men, problems with young voters. And so far, it appears that those problems

10:53have not been solved. As you said before, look, there are plenty of campaigns that have gotten off

10:59to slow starts, if not lost early voting that have gone on to win. But when one of your calling

11:06cards,

11:07one of the things that we've been holding our hat on during these bumpy last few weeks is we have

11:12the

11:12superior ground game and the get out the vote operation. And Trump has outsourced his and it's

11:18an unproven model. Things like this, you know, give you a little bit of heartburn. And at the same time,

11:24Mark, as you said, Nevada is supposed to be, you know, one of our best states. And so it appears

11:31that some of our base voters are not very energized right now.

11:36So can I just, you asked Dan an interesting question, what's causing this? And I think

11:40there are three things that I think are causing it. One is there's been a cleanup of voter rolls

11:46in many of these states, which I think has been extremely helpful. Number two, the registration

11:51efforts that happened pregame, it's almost like the preseason matter, getting folks registered,

11:56getting them excited, staying in touch with them mattered. And then three is I think the issues

12:01and the GOTV stuff on our side. The interesting thing is we've, we've stripped roles in so many

12:07ways. Like for a while, Republicans talked for cycles about data and how Democrats had outsourced it

12:13and we had kept it internally. And it was a big mistake that they had outsourced it. And, and there

12:18was

12:18this big debate about what made sense. And the question now, you know, flips on ground game,

12:22which is, did it make sense to allow some of these outside groups to do things that were

12:26traditionally done by the party in the campaign? We'll still see. But the funny thing is how many

12:31of the roles have kind of switched in the last couple of cycles about which party was doing what

12:35and the critique that each side had of the other one. Yeah. Again, we don't know what turnout's going

12:41to be like. We, we, this is a cycle coming out of the COVID cycle. Lots of things are shaken

12:45up,

12:46but I'll say again, two things. No one will tell you no matter how partisan they are. No one will

12:52tell you that the early voting data is anything but, but scary for Democrats so far. And if on

12:59election day, this trend continues, the election will be over on election day before we know who votes.

13:07Bing, bing, bing, bing, bing, bing, bing. So, um, I also want to show you guys this because

13:15he was talking about, you know, obviously a lot of folks getting out early to vote, which is

13:21fantastic to see. Absolutely fantastic to see. I love it. Uh, some of you have sent the DM like

13:28saying, Hey, yo, look, I voted early. Um, I even think I, some, some of y'all like, uh, added

13:34me on,

13:35on X a couple, a couple of times, um, as well. So I love to see it. I love to

13:40see it. Right. Uh,

13:41but the good news and where was that data? Okay, here we go. Here is the data. Uh, the good

13:50news

13:50is that the data is showing that a lot of people that are voting early are new Trump voters.

13:59It's not the long time Trump voters. Obviously there are some, right? There are some, okay. I'm

14:06not saying there aren't any, okay. But most people that are voting early for Trump are new Trump voters,

14:14meaning come election day, that election day blitz will still be there.

14:24So we're tracking the frequency of voters to see which ones are voting. A voter is dropped into a

14:30bucket, depending on how many votes they've cast in the last three general elections, 2018, 2020,

14:36and 2022. Right now, the GOP is getting more of its new voters out of the zero bucket

14:44uh, and Democrats are getting more of its reliable voters out of, uh, bucket three. Okay. Uh, this

14:53can change, but so far it would suggest that Republicans still have some pop on the back side.

15:02All right. So long story short, like I said, uh, most voters, these crazy numbers that are coming

15:10out right now, these early vote numbers that I've, I've shown you guys, uh, do I have one of those

15:15pulled up? Actually? No, I don't, I don't think I do. Cause I think I showed you guys some of

15:18that

15:18yesterday. So I wasn't going to do it again today, but, uh, some of these early vote numbers,

15:23like in Miami Dade County, right? Uh, Republicans are leading right now in the early vote.

15:31Yeah. I I'm going to say that again, because I don't think people really caught that

15:35in a blue County in Florida, Florida, Republicans are leading right now a blue County. This is Miami

15:45blue. He blue Republicans are in the lead in the early vote. Yeah. Swamp it. Swamp it. Well,

15:57what's the swamp the vote? I believe that's a website as well. Swamp the vote. Or as Trump would

16:02say too big to rig, if we keep like, like he said, and I, I wouldn't thousand percent agree.

16:08If we can keep up these types of numbers and still have the pop that, you know, Trump typically does

16:15on election day as well. Wow. Elections over. It's over by 11, 12 o'clock on election day.

16:26It's cooked. It's cooked. Right? Because I don't care how long so-and-so takes to count this or that

16:34bro. The margins are going to be far, far, far too wide for them to try any shenanigans.

16:42I don't care what they do. The margins are just going to be too big.

16:49That gap is just going to be way too wide to close. Um, and that is why Trump said too

16:55big

16:55to rig. That's why one of the things that I believe, like I said, I believe it's a website

16:59swamp the vote, swamp it because they know what's happening. They know what's going on. We all do.

17:05Right. And I've said it a thousand times, even if you live in a deep red state, go out and

17:11participate

17:12in any way, shape or form, not just on election day, be a door knocker, right? Make some phone calls.

17:19Okay. Uh, even if you live in a deep red state, I'm telling you, because that is what Democrats are

17:25going to be looking for. The, the surprise, right? Ooh, surprise got Florida, you know,

17:35telling you, I said this yesterday too. I'm telling you if a, if a deep red state turns blue,

17:42it's because we got comfortable and Democrats took advantage of it. Just saying, I will not

17:49be completely shocked if that happened. And that's why I always say none of this will matter

17:55if we don't still do our part. If we don't get out and vote, if we don't get out and

18:02knock on doors,

18:02if we aren't, you know, making phone calls, if we aren't doing everything that we need to do,

18:08right? I think, I believe registering to vote is basically closed everywhere at this point. But,

18:12uh, if we aren't doing all of the things that we can do legally,

18:18we'll lose, we'll lose. But right now we are on track to win and we're on track to win big,

18:26real big. So let's keep it up. Let's keep this, let's keep this train rolling. Um,

18:32and let's close it out. We got, we got two weeks, two weeks, actually a little bit less than two

18:37weeks now, uh, just short of two weeks, but, um, we're so close, this close, this close.

18:45Let's finish strong though. Let's finish strong. Peace and love. I'm out.

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