00:00So, Rick, the unemployment rate goes down, but a surprise contraction in jobs.
00:04Last time we spoke for last month, you said the employment picture is stable, broadly unimpressive.
00:10Has your assessment of this labor market changed since then with these numbers in hand?
00:15No, broadly not impressive, I think is the right terminology.
00:19In fact, I was thinking about it.
00:21I think it's actually remarkable how unremarkable the data is.
00:25Listen, I think when you look at, people say, well, gosh, we're not hiring many people because we have a
00:30supply issue.
00:31And you saw some of that play through today.
00:33But that being said, you're not seeing any wage growth.
00:35So, meaning there's not that demand for labor that you would expect when you've got an economy that's doing as
00:40well as it's doing.
00:42I mean, we're going to grow.
00:42I think you're going to see 6% nominal GDP.
00:45You've got corporate top-line revenue that's strong.
00:48Earnings are strong.
00:49But you're seeing operating leverage for companies kick in like you read about.
00:52I mean, you look at all these earnings reports, particularly in the tech space, companies are growing.
00:57They're spending immense amounts of CapEx, but you're actually cutting people in many cases.
01:01So, anyway, I think we're seeing a productivity revolution.
01:04And I think we're watching it play out month in and month out.
01:07I mean, to have only 20,000 jobs on a three-month moving average, you strip out health care, you're
01:11having negative job growth in aggregate.
01:14So, anyway, I think it's – listen, I just think we're going through.
01:17I think when they summarize this years from now, you're going to witness something that is productivity.
01:22People say it's AI kicking in.
01:24I actually think it's just been an ethos around companies growing their business and seeing how you can operate without
01:30that much employment.
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