- 2 days ago
Want to predict Russia’s next move? Forget ideology — See this Video for THREE KEY factors
👉 What World Leaders NEED to Know about Russia: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6d9EIByxz1AdkmIOYUlrDd0rmByq5zSN
Want to predict Russia’s next move? Forget ideology—look at history. In this video, I’ll reveal the three key factors that shape Russian leadership and how they’ve influenced the nation for centuries.
👉 JOIN ME ON THE JOURNEY Sign-up for news about the New Book here: https://elvirabary.com/elvira-barys-newsletter/
MY HISTORICAL FICTION BOOK SERIES
➡️ Russian Treasures (a historical novel about the Bolshevik Revolution and Russian Civil War) https://amzn.to/43PutaM
➡️ The White Ghosts' Empire (a historical novel about the Russian refugees who destroyed the myth of white supremacy in China in the 1920s) https://amzn.to/4owy45Z
➡️ The Prince of the Soviets (a historical novel about a foreign journalist who unexpectedly becomes part of the Soviet elite in Stalin’s Moscow) https://amzn.to/47OXZyM
MY ADVENTURE / FANTASY THRILLER
➡️ The Girl from the Labyrinth (a dark fantasy novel about a young queen, cast from her throne, who must save the man she loves after he’s accus
👉 What World Leaders NEED to Know about Russia: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6d9EIByxz1AdkmIOYUlrDd0rmByq5zSN
Want to predict Russia’s next move? Forget ideology—look at history. In this video, I’ll reveal the three key factors that shape Russian leadership and how they’ve influenced the nation for centuries.
👉 JOIN ME ON THE JOURNEY Sign-up for news about the New Book here: https://elvirabary.com/elvira-barys-newsletter/
MY HISTORICAL FICTION BOOK SERIES
➡️ Russian Treasures (a historical novel about the Bolshevik Revolution and Russian Civil War) https://amzn.to/43PutaM
➡️ The White Ghosts' Empire (a historical novel about the Russian refugees who destroyed the myth of white supremacy in China in the 1920s) https://amzn.to/4owy45Z
➡️ The Prince of the Soviets (a historical novel about a foreign journalist who unexpectedly becomes part of the Soviet elite in Stalin’s Moscow) https://amzn.to/47OXZyM
MY ADVENTURE / FANTASY THRILLER
➡️ The Girl from the Labyrinth (a dark fantasy novel about a young queen, cast from her throne, who must save the man she loves after he’s accus
Category
📚
LearningTranscript
00:00Hi everyone, I'm Elvira Berry and today I'll share with you a foolproof method
00:05for predicting the future of Russia and other countries with similar systems.
00:15I've watched plenty of English language analysis where scholars with great confidence try to decode
00:23the minds of Russian officials and unravel the logic behind their actions. The problem is
00:29that these interpretations often have little to do with reality. They assume Russia's top
00:35officials share the same intellectual foundation and worldview as their analysts themselves.
00:41But here's the truth. Those officials did not attend institutions like Oxford or Harvard
00:48and they did not read the same books or articles. Their worldview is entirely different. Most of these
00:56officials were educated in the Soviet era, a time when the humanities were heavily stifled by
01:02ideology and barely existed as serious academic fields. As a result, Russia's ruling elite missed
01:10decades of progress in Western philosophical and social thought. They are still operating with an
01:18ideological framework rooted in the 1950s. You can hear it in their interviews where they literally
01:27repeat outdated ideas word to word. Have they caught up in recent years now that Western books on sociology,
01:34philosophy and political science are widely available? Not at all. Their skill set is tailored to something
01:42entirely different. Surviving and maneuvering with a dangerous and cutthroat political environment where
01:49power is about controlling resources and outmaneuvering rivals. Strategic planning or embracing modern
01:58values simply isn't part of the job. And then there's the critical piece. Top officials in Russia detest
02:05hearing unpleasant truths. That's why they are driven out leading economists, sociologists, demographers,
02:11and political scientists, labeling them as foreign agents. These individuals face harsh restrictions and
02:18are shut out of public discourse. Unsurprisingly, Russian officials rely heavily on state-sponsored
02:24television for their information. The same TV that pushes propaganda designed to manipulate,
02:31not enlighten. This creates an informational bubble, where officials reinforce their own fantasies,
02:39cut off from their realities outside their echo chamber. So, while Western analysts might imagine deep,
02:47intricate plans at play, the truth is often much simpler. Russia's top officials operate in a world
02:53shaped by outdated ideas, misinformation, and their own immediate survival tactics.
02:59Their reality is far removed from the narratives projected onto them.
03:09The true motivations of Russia's leadership boil down to three key factors. First, staying in power.
03:17Their top priority is clinging to their positions or climbing higher, not in your eyes, but in the eyes of
03:25their peers. They know little about you because they don't engage with you, don't read about you,
03:31and don't speak your language. Nor do they care to know you. They believe they already understand everything.
03:38After all, they are the big bosses. And in their view, that authority is validation enough.
03:45Second, the need to impress. There is a deep-seated national urge to astonish and inspire. And this is not
03:51an
03:51exaggeration. Russia has a long history of sacrificing practicality and even prosperity to project an image
03:59of greatness. Monumental palaces, colossal construction projects, lavish celebrations,
04:05and costly wars may yield little tangible benefit, but serve to boost the country's self-esteem.
04:12The narrative is clear. We are a great nation. However, they are not trying to impress you.
04:19They don't understand you. Nor do they try to. Instead, they act on what they think will impress
04:25you, assuming you share their values. Third, access to resources. This is the most critical factor.
04:33All the grand ambitions of Russian leaders hinge on one thing – money.
04:38And in Russia, money has always been a complicated affair. Running a sprawling nation like Russia is
04:44astronomically expensive. Heating, transportation, and manufacturing require immense energy,
04:51leaving little room for savings. Historically, the average Russian citizen has been far poorer than
04:57their European counterparts because so much of their effort goes into merely sustaining basic life
05:04conditions. The country's vast, sparsely populated territories, longer borders, and lack of navigable
05:11waterways further weaken internal economic connectivity. For a more detailed breakdown, check out this video.
05:19As a result, Russia's domestic market is small, and taxes collected barely suffice to meet the needs of its
05:26citizens, local elites, and the security forces required to keep the system in check.
05:36If we examine the broad trends in Russian history, a fascinating pattern comes into focus.
05:43When Russia isolates itself from the world, it becomes a quiet, impoverished state in Eastern Europe
05:49that rarely antagonizes its neighbors. However, when it opens up to global trade, the story changes. Its citizens remain
05:58poor, but the ruling class rapidly amasses wealth. With this newfound fortune, the rulers build armies and
06:06embark on grandiose projects to consolidate power and dazzle the world. This dynamic explains the rise of
06:14monumental ventures like the construction of St. Petersburg, the conquest of Siberia and Central Asia,
06:22and even the colonization of Russian Alaska. Yes, Alaska was once Russian territory.
06:29To predict where Russia is heading, focus on its foreign trade. It's the lifeline of the ruling
06:35elite's super-profits, funding their ambitious wars and monumental undertakings. Since the 16th century,
06:43Russia's foreign trade has revolved around key chalk points, starting with the northern port city of
06:50Arkhangelsk. With few alternative trade routes, the government tightly controlled or outright monopolized
06:58highly profitable goods, cementing its dominance over lucrative exports. Russia's prosperity has always
07:06hinged on events in European states, its primary trading partners. Let's explore the details, because the
07:14devil truly lies in their outlook nuances. In the 16th and 17th century, Russia's main exports were wax,
07:24furs and honey. This period coincided with the reformation in Europe, which brought rising literacy rates
07:31and consequently a growing demand for candles. Meanwhile, Spain was colonizing the Americas, flooding Europe with
07:39silver and gold from the New World, enriching its aristocracy. However, Spain's domestic industries lagged behind,
07:48so wealthy Spaniards turned to neighbors like England and France to purchase fine textiles, furniture, and other luxury goods.
07:58This trade created a class of welfare artisans and merchants in Western Europe,
08:03who developed a taste for exotic luxuries like Russian furs and honey.
08:13By the 18th century, Russia had taken a dramatic leap forward. It waged successful wars and, most
08:19significantly, defeated Sweden to secure access to the Baltic Sea. But where did the money for these
08:26granted achievements come from? Funding armies, buying weapons, building domestic armed factories,
08:33and paying foreign specialists invited by Peter the Great required enormous resources. These specialists
08:40demanded and received higher wages than they would have earned at home. After all, few were eager to
08:46relocate to Russia's distant and unforgiving terrain. The explanation for this financial miracle lies in trade.
08:56At the time, Russia's key partners were Holland and England, both deeply engaged in colonial expansion
09:04and naval development. By the 18th century, however, Western Europe's forests had largely vanished. The
09:12iconic English landscape of rolling green hills was once densely forested, but deforestation had reduced
09:20woodlands to a few hunting reserves. Nevis, however, still had to be built. Russia stepped in as a
09:27critical supplier of timber, hemp, flax, and iron thanks to discovery of vast iron deposits in the
09:33Ural Mountains. Meanwhile, fur remained a highly sought-after commodity, as Europe's deforestation led to the
09:41decline of animals like the European beaver, Eurasian lynx, and European mink.
09:48Russia's natural resources became the lifeblood of European industry and naval power, fueling its own
09:55rise as a formidable player on the global stage.
10:03In the 18th century, Russia secured access to Black Sea ports and conquered the fertile
10:08lands of Ukraine and the Wild Steppe. These acquisitions transformed Russia into a major
10:14grain exporter. Grain prices steadily climbed due to Europe's growing population, urbanization,
10:22frequent worse epidemics, and crop failures, such as the infamous potato famine.
10:27The revenues from grain exports funded the creation of a massive army and established a strict police
10:35state within Russia. Under Tsar Nicholas I, Russia wielded immense power over half of Europe, not only
10:43through its military strength, but also by threatening to withhold grain from Europe's rapidly growing
10:50urban centers. The Crimean War, 1853-1856, disrupted Russia's grain exports to Europe, creating an
10:58opening for the United States. Leveraging its expansive river systems and burgeoning
11:03railroad networks, the U.S. efficiently connected fertile agricultural regions to ports.
11:10Technological advancements allowed American grain to be shipped across the Atlantic more
11:16cheaply than it could be transported from Russia. Following its humiliating defeat in the Crimean War,
11:23Russia required several years to rebuild its economy and revive its expansionist ambitions.
11:29This recovery was significantly bolstered by Europe's rapid urbanization and industrialization,
11:36which created a growing dependency on Russian grain, timber, metals, and other raw materials to
11:42sustain its burgeoning industries. Russia's own industrial growth at the turn of the 19th and 20th
11:48century relied heavily on these export revenues. However, this economic boom scarcely benefited the vast
11:56majority of the Russian population, which continued to subsist on small-scale farming and often didn't
12:03encounter actual money until the 1960s. The Russian economy crumbled entirely after the Bolshevik Revolution.
12:17The new rulers promised prosperity, but the reality was starkly different. Factories
12:24ground to a halt, cities were abandoned, and the nation regressed to an almost archaic state. As one
12:33contemporary observer noted, even basic items like eyeglass screws or new pencils were impossible to find.
12:41The Bolshevik government's refusal to honor Tsari's debts triggered a trade embargo, causing grain exports
12:49to plummet tenfold and plunging the country into years of profound poverty. While the civil war and
12:57revolution contributed significantly to the devastation, the underlying issue was a complete lack of funds to
13:05develop any meaningful industry. Meanwhile, Russia's former dominance in the global grain market was swiftly overtaken
13:13by the United States, Canada and Argentina. In the 1920s, Russia's foreign trade limped along, sustained primarily by
13:23exporting grain and raw materials to Germany. In 1922, Germany recognized the USSR and signed a trade agreement which provided
13:33a
13:34modest boost to its own post-war World War I economy. For Russia, however, the shortages were crippling.
13:40Tractors, basic machinery and even the smallest items like scissors and needles were in critically short supply.
13:48Smuggling became a lifeline and eastern Poland, newly liberated from Russian rule, reaped significant
13:55profits as a hub for black market trade. How did Russia eventually build the powerful Red Army that defeated the
14:03Nazis?
14:04When Stalin came to power, he initiated a massive industrialization campaign,
14:09funded through the ruthless exploitation of the peasantry. Land and private property were confiscated,
14:16and farmers were forced into collective farms, essentially state-run enterprises. This policy led to widespread
14:23famine, the mass migration of young people from villages and persistent food shortages in cities.
14:30At the same time, goods produced by Gulag prisoners, such as timber, metals and other raw materials,
14:37were exported to foreign markets. This legalized system of forced labor was specifically designed to fuel
14:45industrial growth and generate export revenue. If you are curious, I have a separate video exploring this
14:51topic in depth. Why did the West enable the USSR, a nation openly proclaiming its intent to conquer the world,
15:03to build up its industry and military? The answer lies in the Great Depression of 1929, which left many
15:10Western factories, engineering firms and specialists with few options. Supplying goods to the USSR often
15:18meant the difference between survival and bankruptcy. During World War II, the Soviet Union became an ally of
15:27the United States and the United Kingdom. As part of this alliance, the USSR received massive amounts of
15:33aid from ambulances to aviation fuel. My grandmother, who served as a nurse during the war, often spoke of how
15:40all the surgical and bandaging materials they used came from America. Even the wounded soldiers' rations
15:47included diluted condensed milk supplied by the U.S. When the Cold War began, territories under U.S. and
15:54Allied control experienced rapid reconstruction, while the USSR struggled to recover.
16:00Vast swaths of Soviet land had been burned and looted during the war, and the country left funds for
16:07rebuilding, especially after the new trade embargo imposed by the West.
16:17To supply its newly acquired satellite states with energy, the USSR began investing heavily in oil exploration
16:25in the 1950s. The discovery of massive reserves came at a critical time. By the 1960s, the Soviet Union had
16:35lost its
16:36primary source of internal revenue – the voiceless and powerless peasantry. Young people were abandoning
16:44rural villages for cities, leaving behind aging populations that were gradually dying off. While the Bolsheviks had
16:53promised to build a utopian communist society, the reality was far bleaker. Domestic agriculture was
17:01in shambles, and the nation could no longer feed itself. Desperate for foreign currency to sustain the
17:09economy, the USSR turned to its vast energy reserves. Beginning in the 1960s, the Soviet Union became a key
17:17supplier of gas and oil to Europe. Pipelines were built, and countries like Italy, West Germany, and France
17:25grew increasingly reliant on steady energy shipments from their hostile labor.
17:32However, even amid the Cold War, the USSR struck a groundbreaking deal with the United States to
17:39purchase American grain. Without this agreement, the USSR would have faced a catastrophic food crisis
17:45as early as the 1970s. The 1973 oil crisis sent global oil prices soaring, and the USSR, flush with new
17:55found resources promptly funneled its wealth into an ambitious and costly venture – the war in Afghanistan.
18:03In response, the United States imposed another embargo on the USSR. However, European nations largely
18:10disregarded it, as their post-war industrial recovery heavily depended on cheap raw materials from the Soviet
18:17Soviet Union, particularly gas, which fueled countless industries.
18:26In 1985, disaster struck. Oil prices plummeted from $30 to $35 per barrel to just $15. This dramatic drop was
18:37driven
18:37by several factors. A global economic slowdown in the early 1980s, Saudi Arabia flooding the market with oil, and the
18:46aftermath of the 1973 oil crisis, which had prompted the United States to heavily invest in energy-saving
18:54technologies and expand its own oil production. The Soviet Union, heavily reliant on foreign currency from
19:00trade, could no longer sustain itself. This income had been crucial, particularly for importing food.
19:07I vividly remember the 1980s, when Russian cards were issued for almost everything, from sugar to
19:15butter. The USSR, in the most literal sense, went bankrupt.
19:24Did anyone learn a lesson from this? Not at all. The cycle simply began anew. In the 1990s, as China
19:32underwent
19:33rapid industrialization, energy prices climbed once again and Russia's treasury was flush with cash.
19:39Europe eagerly bought Russian oil and gas, yet their profits barely reached their general population.
19:46Instead, they were funneled to the upper echelon of society. And how did it all end? The same as always.
19:54War and construction, construction and war. Think World Cup stadiums, the Crimean Bridge, the President's Palace in
20:01LNG, and endless conflicts, Syria, Georgia, Ukraine. After the war in Ukraine began, Europe made many
20:08mental efforts to break its dependence on Russian oil and gas, triggering a severe economic crisis,
20:15particularly in Germany. Russia, having lost its most vital market, turned to China. Now, nearly everything in
20:23Russian industry is either made in China, or it depends on Chinese components. But there is a major problem.
20:30China itself is facing a crisis of unprecedented proportions, stemming from its shrinking youth
20:37population, a direct consequence of rapid urbanization, and the infamous one-child policy.
20:45This short-sighted strategy, born of leadership lacking robust education in humanities, inflicted lasting
20:52damage on the Chinese nation. The problem cannot be fixed. China cannot magically produce millions
21:00millions of young workers to replace those aging out of their workforce. This will inevitably lead to
21:09an industrial slowdown, and with it, a drop in oil prices. What will happen to Russia under such
21:16conditions is not hard to guess. But this situation will persist only until the next cycle. If the West
21:24encounters significant setbacks, it will once again turn to Russia, resume trade, and the cycle will
21:31repeat itself all over again. Can this vicious cycle be broken? Yes. But first, we need to address
21:44the core reasons behind it. Resource concentration. In Russia, all resources are controlled by a tiny elite,
21:52willing to destroy their country's future to cling to power indefinitely.
21:57Short-sighted policies in the West. Western nations often patch economic holes by engaging with
22:03authoritarian regimes, ignoring the long-term consequences. These deals fuel wars and a refugee
22:10crisis, funded by the West's own money. Politicians temporarily bolster this regime's economies only to
22:17leave the mess for their next generation to clean up. A Polish society. Russian society lacks the
22:23information, connections, and resources necessary to resist its ruling class. The elite ensures it stays
22:30this way by imprisoning, exiling, or even killing political opponents, suppressing free media, and
22:36convincing an under-educated population that all their wars are the fault of the CIA or MI6. For anyone
22:44asking why don't Russians fight for their rights? Try setting an example in Moscow. You'd be arrested
22:50within 10 minutes, likely exchanged for a Russian spy after 5 years, and return home, if you are lucky,
22:57with broken kidneys, tuberculosis, and no teeth. If the West genuinely aims to prevent wars, there are only
23:03two viable options. First, cut all ties with authoritarian regimes. Without access to foreign trade, regimes like
23:12Russia would lack their funds to build armies and acquire modern weapons. However, scarcity alone won't turn
23:19Russia or any similar country into a democracy. Instead, it will spark fierce competition for remaining
23:26resources. The elite will remain cynical and secular, but the general population will be poisoned with extreme
23:33propaganda, a toxic mix of nationalism, messianic delusions, and anger. Look at Iraq, Lebanon, or Syria.
23:43Russia would follow a similar path if left isolated. While a nuclear threat remains a concern, Russia's
23:51elite are not religious fanatics. They are a mafia with a mafia-like cause – power, money, and status.
23:59Such a Russia would lose its bite, especially as its population ages, shrinks, and its brightest minds flee.
24:06But is this truly the future anyone wants?
24:10Second, empower people to build an alternative Russia. The second option is to help ordinary people
24:18develop the resources and connections necessary to create a new Russia. This would take time, education,
24:25and the gradual formation of a new international identity – not from within Russia, but fostered externally.
24:34It's essentially a PR strategy with a clear message. We value you, respect you, and are ready to welcome you.
24:48Right now, the opposite is happening. The Russian population is left entirely at the mercy of the elite.
24:55Embassies are closed. Sanctions make international connections nearly impossible.
25:02And Russian citizens who do make it abroad face significant barriers. Their passports mark them as
25:10second-class humans, regardless of their beliefs. They can't use credit cards, find jobs, or open bank
25:17accounts. This isolation crushes any potential for political activism. Most people are simply trying
25:23to survive amidst these obstacles. Russian propaganda exploits this narrative brilliantly. The West hates
25:30you because you are Russian. Come back to daddy. Nobody loves you but me. But this daddy is a classic
25:36domestic
25:36tyrant, manipulative, isolating, and abusive. His success lies in being the breadwinner and the strongest
25:44force around. The modern world's greatest issue is that people rarely take the time to truly study and
25:51understand one another. They either don't realize it's necessary or assume they already know everything.
25:58But they don't. If you believe breaking this cycle is important, give this video a thumbs up and share
26:07your thoughts in the comments. If you are curious about Russian history, click the link below and explore
26:12my book series Russian Treasures. It unveils the intricacies of this world from the inside. And I promise you,
26:20you won't regret it.
Comments