In a major escalation, Ukraine has launched long-range drone strikes against Iranian shadow fleet cargo ships in the Caspian Sea, severing a critical weapons route to Russia. By striking vessels carrying military supplies, Kyiv is directly linking its fight against Moscow with the wider U.S.-Iran conflict into a single global war. As Tehran threatens retaliation, Ukraine’s daring long-range operations continue to redefine the battlefield.
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Ukraine Drone Strike Hits Iranian Ships Caspian Sea
01:25 - Zelenskyy Links Russia Ukraine War to US Iran Conflict
02:45 - Iran Foreign Minister Threatens Kyiv After Ship Attacks
04:10 - How Ukraine Uses Radar Satellites to Track Iranian Ships
05:30 - Ukrainian Liutyi Drones Strike Targets 1,000 Kilometers Away
06:50 - Iranian Economy Suffers 6 Billion Dollar Trade Losses
08:15 - Iran Considers Khorramshahr Missile Strike on Kyiv
09:40 - Will Iranian Strikes Escalate War Into Global Conflict?
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SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/aNR48nCQ
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Ukraine Drone Strike Hits Iranian Ships Caspian Sea
01:25 - Zelenskyy Links Russia Ukraine War to US Iran Conflict
02:45 - Iran Foreign Minister Threatens Kyiv After Ship Attacks
04:10 - How Ukraine Uses Radar Satellites to Track Iranian Ships
05:30 - Ukrainian Liutyi Drones Strike Targets 1,000 Kilometers Away
06:50 - Iranian Economy Suffers 6 Billion Dollar Trade Losses
08:15 - Iran Considers Khorramshahr Missile Strike on Kyiv
09:40 - Will Iranian Strikes Escalate War Into Global Conflict?
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/aNR48nCQ
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NewsTranscript
00:00For years, Iran has been supplying weapons, particularly Shahid drones, to Russia.
00:05Those weapons arrive on Shadow Fleet ships taking secretive routes through the Caspian Sea.
00:11And now Ukraine has had enough. It just turned that secret weapons route into a giant fireball
00:17with drone attacks against Iranian ships that were sailing to Russia.
00:20But this story is bigger than the strikes. What we're seeing here is two wars converging into one.
00:27Russia, Iran, Ukraine and the US are now involved in a conflict that spans the globe.
00:34Are we seeing the start of a global war? Perhaps. But let's start with the strikes.
00:39On July 25th, Ukraine unleashed a wave of strikes against ships sailing through the Caspian Sea.
00:46On the surface, these ships looked like regular commercial vessels. They weren't.
00:51The ships were part of the Shadow Fleet that Russia and Iran have been using to transport weapons and oil
00:56between themselves.
00:57For Ukraine, this is a situation that can no longer be tolerated.
01:01The weapons that Russia has been receiving, which include drones and missiles,
01:05have for too long been used to attack Ukrainian cities and kill Ukrainian civilians.
01:10So Ukraine did something about it.
01:13And it isn't shy about letting the world know about the results.
01:16On his official Telegram account, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the strikes to the world.
01:22We have very good results from long-range strikes in the Caspian Sea.
01:26In particular, these are vessels that were involved in the transportation of military cargo with Iran and a warship,
01:33Zelensky said in an announcement where he also detailed attacks against the Tiumen oil refinery in Yekaterinburg,
01:39a strike against a fuel and lubricants warehouse in Rostov-on-Don,
01:42and a drone assault on an enterprise in Kirov that makes components used in the weapons that Russia launches at
01:47Ukraine.
01:48That latter strike was conducted at a range of about 1,200 kilometers, Zelensky said,
01:54which highlights just how deep Ukraine's strikes are now able to go.
01:57But it's Iran's ships that are the headline grabbers here.
02:01What Ukraine has just done is launch strikes against another nation other than Russia.
02:05That's huge because it means that two separate wars have just converged into one,
02:10and it opens the door to a globe-spanning conflict.
02:14The footage from the strikes is revealing.
02:16Ukraine has now hit three vessels in the Caspian Sea,
02:19at least two of which were transporting weapons from Iran.
02:23Those ships, the Big A and the Port Olya-2, may fly the Russian flag,
02:27but they were filled with Iranian supplies and, for all intents and purposes,
02:30were as important to Iran and its attempts to keep its flagging economy going as they were to Russia
02:36and its desire to continue its constant bombardment against Ukraine.
02:39There was no mercy shown to these ships.
02:42The plumes of smoke and massive fires show us that Ukraine wasn't looking to disable,
02:46it wanted to sink.
02:47This is an escalation unlike anything yet seen in the Caspian Sea,
02:51and it has massive ramifications.
02:54What we're seeing here is Ukraine delivering a huge warning shot to Iran.
02:58For years, Iran's regime has cooperated with Putin.
03:02Beyond the Shahid drones, Iran and Russia signed a cooperation agreement toward the end of 2025,
03:07making it clear that the two nations were deepening their relationship.
03:11To Ukraine, the wars had already converged.
03:14Iran may be fighting the US in the Gulf,
03:17and Russia may be invading Ukraine on its own territory,
03:19but this cooperation between the two means the war is already global.
03:24As Zelensky points out, Russia has been providing Iran with satellite photographs
03:28used in strikes against US bases and American allies in the Gulf region.
03:32Since the beginning of July, we have recorded active Russian satellite surveillance of the Gulf states
03:37and US military facilities located there.
03:40These images subsequently appear in Iran,
03:43Zelensky declared in his July 25th evening address to the Ukrainian people, adding,
03:47There is a clear correlation between Russia's satellite imagery of these sites and Iranian strikes,
03:53both before the attacks, in preparation for them, and afterward, to assess the damage inflicted.
03:58On July 19th and 20th alone, four air bases fell within the area of interest of Russian satellites,
04:04two in Bahrain, one in Jordan, and one in Kuwait.
04:07So, Ukraine's justification is clear.
04:10Iran was already involved, and Ukraine has decided to meet its Shadow Fleet ships with fire.
04:16We'll be digging deeper into those justifications later,
04:19but what is interesting about Zelensky's statement here is that he's sending a message,
04:23not to Iran and not even to Russia, but to the United States.
04:27Ukraine is letting the US know in no uncertain terms that the war against Iran
04:31is actually a fight to protect the entire West and its values from nations that wish to destroy them.
04:37There's a shock factor to these strikes, which has reverberated through the halls of the White House.
04:42That's according to Joe Barnes, who's the diplomatic editor at The Telegraph.
04:46Barnes points out that the Iranian cargo ships in the Caspian Sea
04:50don't seem like obvious targets for Ukraine.
04:52But by striking these ships and making the statement we shared earlier,
04:55Zelensky is reinforcing the nature of the alliance between Iran and Russia
04:59in the minds of the Trump administration.
05:02Ukraine's goal is to link the two conflicts.
05:04And by doing so, it might be able to create some wiggle room
05:07to encourage the US to offer more support to Ukraine as it defends itself against Russia.
05:13After all, Ukraine argues these two wars are already won.
05:17Help Ukraine defeat Russia and Iran weakens substantially.
05:20This is the message being delivered to the US.
05:23It's likely no coincidence that Ukraine's strikes against Iran's ships
05:27occurred on the eve of Zelensky arriving in the US on July 28th.
05:31The meetings with US President Donald Trump, his team, and what Zelensky calls
05:35those who can support our defense.
05:37In an ex-post announcing his arrival in the US, Zelensky said,
05:41Our number one priority is anti-ballistic defense and strategic cooperation with America.
05:46Peace needs to be brought closer.
05:48What better way to encourage that cooperation than to demonstrate to the Trump administration
05:53that two seemingly separate enemies are actually one mutual foe?
05:58As for Iran, its regime is pissed.
06:01In the wake of Ukraine's Caspian sea strikes, Iran's foreign minister Abbas Aragchi took to
06:06social media to rail against Ukraine.
06:09Zelensky has attacked an Iranian commercial vessel, killing a sailor.
06:12A blatant UN charter violation done at Israel's behest to drag Europe into its war, Aragchi blared,
06:19before declaring that Iran has
06:20made clear that what the freeloader in Kyiv did cannot go unanswered.
06:24In other words, Iran is planning some kind of response.
06:28What that response is remains to be seen.
06:31Aragchi's words are vague, likely deliberately so.
06:33And Iran also has its hands tied with the fight against the US in the Gulf region.
06:38For its part, Ukraine has dismissed the Iranian threat and doubled down on its view that the
06:42strikes against these cargo ships were 100% legitimate.
06:46Ukraine's foreign minister Andriy Sabir has let Iran know precisely where Ukraine stands
06:50in a July 27th ex-post where he said,
06:53Iran's threats are unjustified and groundless.
06:56The regime in Tehran is a direct accomplice to Russian aggression against Ukraine,
07:00fueling Moscow's criminal war with weapons that have killed Ukrainians since 2022.
07:05Sabir adds that Iran has no right to pretend to be a victim in all of this,
07:09never mind to threaten United Nations action against Ukraine.
07:12Again, it all comes back to Ukraine's overall point.
07:15Iran has been part of the war with Russia since the very beginning.
07:18All Ukraine just did was teach Iran why that's a very bad idea.
07:23Tensions have exploded to unforeseen levels.
07:26Both wars in Ukraine and Iran, which already involved dozens of nations either providing
07:30aid or being directly affected by strikes, have just escalated.
07:35What happens next could be huge for the course of global events.
07:39But before we dig into that, as well as what Ukraine did and why it attacked these ships,
07:43this is a reminder that you're watching the military show.
07:45We make this show to explain how power really moves, so make sure you're subscribed
07:50and have notifications enabled so you see more of our videos.
07:55Before we dig deeper into what all of this means for the future, there's a question that
07:59needs to be answered.
08:00How did Ukraine even manage to attack Shadow Fleet cargo ships in the Caspian Sea?
08:05After all, the clue is in the name, Shadow Fleet.
08:07These ships are supposed to be hidden.
08:09They deactivate transponders and take secret routes specifically to prevent something like
08:14what just happened from happening.
08:15We'll be shocked in equal measure that Ukraine was able to pull off a strike like this.
08:19How it happened comes down to the brilliant use of an intelligence network and equipment
08:24that enables Ukraine to track Shadow Fleet ships as they sail in the Caspian Sea.
08:28On the intelligence front, Ukraine is part of the War and Sanctions Project, which is essentially
08:33a massive database of targets that have been identified as being part of Russia's campaign
08:38of aggression against Ukraine.
08:39This database compiles open-source data, information from Ukraine's partners on sanctioned ships,
08:46satellite imagery, and much more to provide Ukraine with a list of potential targets to
08:50strike.
08:51Both the Bigay and the Port Olya-2 are in that database.
08:55You can search them for yourself.
08:56And you'll find information about the ships, justifications for them being targets, a list
09:01of the ports that they visited, and even information about the flags that they sail under to try to
09:06stay hidden from view.
09:07So Ukraine knew what it wanted to strike.
09:09But Ukraine still had to find these shady ships as they sailed in the Caspian Sea.
09:14What may have happened here is that Ukraine combined all of the data it had already collected
09:18with the use of a dedicated synthetic aperture radar that it received from Finland.
09:23That radar was crowdfunded by Ukraine's people back in June 2022.
09:27They raised more than the planned $30 million in three days, initially to buy Bayraktar drones
09:32from Turkey.
09:33When Turkey heard about this, they donated the drones to Ukraine, leaving the $18 million
09:38for the purchase of what is essentially a spy satellite that Ukraine can use to track the
09:42movements of targets.
09:43This brilliant device fires radar energy at the Earth's surface from 500 kilometers away,
09:48and it uses what it gets back to build an image of what it sees.
09:53Clouds, darkness, and weather don't affect the radar, and using it, Ukraine can receive images
09:57of what is on the ground, or perhaps in this case, the Caspian Sea, six times faster than it would
10:02from other sources.
10:03So what likely happened here is that satellite imagery clued Ukraine into the fact that the
10:07two Iranian cargo ships were setting sail from Iran through the Caspian Sea.
10:12Ukraine then used its own radars to track those ships, which in turn allowed it to set a course
10:16for drones that would fly hundreds of kilometers to take those vessels down.
10:20As for the drones, it appears that Ukraine used the Liochi for the job.
10:23One of the most famous long-range drones that Ukraine has developed, the Liochi has been
10:28making a name for itself for years.
10:30With a range of more than 1,000 kilometers and the ability to carry warheads weighing
10:34up to 75 kilograms, it has more than enough range and firepower to reach the Caspian Sea
10:39and punch holes in any ships attempting to sail through it.
10:43Liochi is also believed to have a navigation system that incorporates artificial intelligence,
10:47which makes it much harder for electronic warfare devices to send it off course.
10:51And in an interesting wrinkle, Ukraine has been adapting the drone into a cruise missile
10:56carrier.
10:57That's according to a July 21st United 24 media report, which says that Ukraine recently
11:02showcased a version of the Liochi that can carry four compact air-launched cruise missiles,
11:07essentially transforming the drone into an unmanned bomber.
11:11That wasn't the version of the Liochi used against Iran and Russia's ships.
11:15Hamikaze drones did the damage.
11:16But it's interesting to see what Ukraine has in store for the future of its war against
11:20Russia and what now seems to be a burgeoning conflict with Iran.
11:24Speaking of the future, the big question now is whether Ukraine's justification for its
11:28Caspian Sea strike will be enough to ward off a fight with Iran, or if Iran is intent on
11:33following through with its threats of retribution.
11:36We know why Ukraine did this.
11:38The supply line between Iran and Russia is well established, and the Caspian Sea is where
11:42most of the drones heading into Russia from Iran head.
11:45A message was sent.
11:46The sea is no longer safe for Shadow Fleet ships.
11:49Ukraine wants to force Iran into considering the risk involved in cooperating with Russia,
11:54perhaps with the goal of severing the tie between the two nations, or at least damaging
11:58it enough to force Iran to pull back on its support.
12:01But there's also timing to consider, as we mentioned earlier.
12:05Ukraine's strike comes at a time when the relationship between the US and Ukraine is arguably stronger
12:09than it has been at any other point during Trump's second stint.
12:13Plus, Ukraine got to take another shot at the Russian Shadow Fleet here.
12:17That's been a clear focus for Ukraine over the past month, as a wave of drone strikes
12:21in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov have taken out almost 200 fuel tankers, cargo vessels,
12:26and tugboats in those two seas.
12:29Ukraine likely sees what it did in the Caspian Sea as an extension of the Ukraine war, rather
12:34than the opening of a new front that converges two separate wars.
12:37But Iran may see things differently.
12:39And that's why we may be about to see regional conflicts blow up into a much wider war.
12:44To Iran, the Shadow Fleet ships that Ukraine just destroyed aren't just dime-a-dozen
12:48cargo vessels that can be replaced easily.
12:51Both carried weapons that Iran needs to be able to sell to Russia to support its ailing economy.
12:57The Caspian Sea is a lifeline for Iran as it attempts to endure US bombing campaigns
13:01and blockades of the Strait of Hormuz that are designed to cripple Iran's economy.
13:05Though American strikes in Iran grab the headlines, it's the country's work to limit the flow
13:09of oil out of Iran itself that is doing the very real damage that could force the country's
13:14regime to back down to American pressure.
13:17During Operation Epic Fury, the US claimed that the counter-blockade it created in Hormuz
13:21was costing Iran $500 million per day.
13:24On June 5th, Al Jazeera reported that Iran was exporting less than a sixth of the oil that
13:29it was selling before the war with the US began.
13:31The country's crude oil exports are now the lowest they've been in six years, and they've
13:36left an almost $6 billion wide black hole in the Iranian economy.
13:40Iran International points out something similar for Iran's non-oil trade, noting that Iran
13:46is ultimately the biggest loser from the Hormuz blockades.
13:48The outlet points to non-oil trade with China, which was $830 million between March and June
13:552026.
13:56That's 75% lower than the equivalent period in 2025, which recorded $3.3 billion.
14:03Iran has also lost out on trade with its Gulf neighbors.
14:06In 2025, trade with those neighbors accounted for 51% of Iran's total non-oil sales.
14:12Now there's practically no trade.
14:14These Gulf neighbors have no intention of buying from Iran when Iran is actively targeting
14:19them with drones and missiles.
14:21The point we're making here is that Iran is in dire economic straits.
14:25Its trade with Russia via the Caspian Sea was one of the few economic lifelines that
14:29Iran had as it endures tremendous pressure caused by its war with the US.
14:33Ukraine just made that lifeline much more dangerous to exploit.
14:37That's a boon for the US, which will be happy to see Iran lose yet more money.
14:41But for Iran, what happened in the Caspian Sea could trigger an already desperate nation
14:46into doing something insane, attacking Ukraine directly.
14:50As crazy as it sounds, such an attack is theoretically possible.
14:53It won't involve troops.
14:55Iran isn't going to start shipping soldiers into Russia, especially when it needs those
14:59soldiers back home to protect against the potential threat of a US ground invasion.
15:03But what Iran does have is ballistic missiles.
15:05And according to a June 26th piece by the Eyepaper, the regime is considering a revenge
15:11missile strike against Ukraine in response to what happened in the Caspian Sea.
15:15The outlet reports on comments made by Barbek Tugvahi, who is an Iranian military journalist.
15:20Although the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force has made no official statement,
15:25it has reportedly conveyed to several members of parliament and journalists close to the
15:29regime that it is considering a retaliatory ballistic missile strike against a strategic
15:34target in Kiev, Tugvahi tells the Eyepaper, adding that keeping all of this unofficial would
15:40also provide plausible deniability for such an attack.
15:43After all, Iranian missiles are already being used by Russia.
15:47Iran would just argue that it was Russia that carried out the strike rather than Iran.
15:51The regime also has missiles that could reach Ukraine, albeit they would have to fly massive
15:56distances to do so.
15:57The Gada, Sajil, and Imad are all believed to have ranges of about 2,000 kilometers,
16:03with the Karamshah supposedly being capable of flying up to 4,000 kilometers.
16:07If there's a strike coming, it will likely be that last missile that Iran uses.
16:12Iran has a 2,000 kilometer version of the Karamshah, which carries a 1,500 kilogram warhead.
16:18Presumably, this warhead is smaller on the 4,000 kilometer variant, enabling the longer
16:22distance.
16:23If Iran launches any of these missiles at Ukraine, two wars would become one.
16:28The US, shocked by such a brazen attack and already concerned that Iran is trying to develop
16:33nuclear weapons that could be loaded into one of these missiles, would be forced to act.
16:37More strikes on Iran would follow, and Ukraine may finally get the increased aid it wants
16:42to continue its fight with Russia.
16:44Iran so directly attacking Ukraine could also potentially pave the way for Russian forces or
16:48equipment to head into Iran to serve in the defense against the US.
16:52Two conflicts that have always been somewhat intermingled would become part of the same
16:57war, a global war, one that starts with four nations, but could grow to engulf the Gulf,
17:03Europe, and many other parts of the world.
17:06The one thing that might stop Iran from retaliating against Ukraine with missiles is the prospect
17:10of an escalated war with the US.
17:12An escalation may just be what America is considering.
17:15As Trump considers his options for bringing the conflict in the Gulf to an end, the idea
17:20of a ground invasion is still on the table.
17:22How would that go and what would it mean for the future?
17:25We answer both of those questions in our video, so check it out to learn more.
17:29And if you enjoyed this video, remember to subscribe to The Military Show to see more
17:34of our analysis of the latest developments in Ukraine and how those developments affect
17:38the rest of the world.
17:39And thank you, as always, for watching.
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