00:00The late games, the late night Degenerate special starts at Chez Ravine, I believe,
00:06with the Dodgers taking on Seattle here.
00:09Robleski taking on Louis Castillo, who, which version of him shows up tonight is my question
00:18here.
00:18But once again, the Dodgers, they're two 220 favorites here.
00:23They're overpriced.
00:26Nine and a half is the total in this game.
00:29I mean, what are we thinking here?
00:32Dodgers are so tough to bet.
00:34I can't reasonably say that I want to bet the Dodgers in any capacity.
00:39And I know a lot of people out there, you know, we haven't touched on the Padres Rockies yet.
00:43I assume a lot of people out there are putting a minus 235 for the Dodgers and minus 220 for
00:47the Padres and just trying to get it close to even money.
00:50They're trying to like, listen, I don't like backing the Dodgers at that type of price.
00:54Maybe if it was Yamamoto, I could talk myself into it, you know, first five, something or
01:00another.
01:00But I just can't back the Dodgers.
01:02Their offense hasn't been that consistent.
01:04You know, people still bill them as the Dodgers, but they've been a little bit up and down,
01:08which people don't really realize.
01:10Castillo, I'm not saying he's good in any capacity.
01:12Um, and I've been looking to fade Castillo for a lot, especially recently, but I can't
01:17back the Dodgers at minus 235.
01:19It's too much.
01:22I'm looking right now, Todd, because I want to see what the weather is going to be.
01:27And it looks like, uh, yeah, it looks like what we got, eight, nine mile an hour winds
01:33towards, uh, towards right field.
01:35Uh, and it's a temperature, not a, uh, you know, a lot of humidity, but not a crazy hot
01:41night there in LA.
01:43So home run props, maybe in this one for the Dodgers.
01:47What, what do you think might, uh, might go yard here?
01:51That's a great question.
01:52Look at some prices real quick, just because the Otani price is always crazy.
01:57And what are we like?
01:58And a 210 for a home run is insane.
02:00Like you can't be looking at 210 for a home run.
02:03And even Max Muncy is plus 280, which is an insane price.
02:06Like these are unbettable at a certain point.
02:08And I know people are probably throwing Otani with, uh, you know, your Don Alvarez tonight.
02:13Uh, Dalton Rush is even plus 350.
02:15That's crazy.
02:16I would look further down.
02:17Like Andy Paz is plus 450.
02:20You can take a shot there.
02:21Mookie's plus 560.
02:22And listen, I know his power is sacked over the recent years, but I'd rather take a small,
02:28you know, quarter unit, even less than that fifth of a unit and put it on Mookie
02:32than bet into a plus 210 for a home run prop, which is insane.
02:38Anybody in Seattle worth a, I mean, you gotta think Robleski is not exactly, he's an interesting
02:44pitcher that he's been very lucky with the home run bowl so far this year.
02:50Um, and it feels like if you can get one up here, I mean, Derek, Cal Raleigh at what plus
02:571200 is at least that's what it should be anyway here.
03:00But is there a, uh, is there a Seattle Mariner that could give us a pretty good return here?
03:06Uh, you know, who would be for me?
03:09It would be, you know, Randy at Rosarena has been hot as of late, you know, he, he had
03:14a couple of runs a day against the Rangers.
03:17He's plus 370.
03:18I think that's a fair price on a home run for him.
03:22Uh, Robleski, as you said, the home runs aren't showing up, at least not against righties.
03:27He's only a 0.45, but he still loves a 41% fly ball rate versus right.
03:32He's in a 43% hard contact rate.
03:33So he's overperforming.
03:36I mean, his home run to fly ball ratio is 3.9% versus righties this season and his career
03:43average.
03:43If I can find this quickly, his career average is still 8.4.
03:47So he's twice as good this year as he is compared to his career.
03:51That's as a bit too much.
03:52Randy Rosara has been hot.
03:54Yeah.
03:55I mean, and listen, there's nothing.
03:57He's been fantastic, but I do think the home run regression is coming.
04:02If we get a team that can get it up there at Chesravine.
04:06So, uh, maybe not a bad look, but as arena, yep.
04:09Starting to swing it pretty well here in that one.
04:12And then Louie, you just don't know what you're going to get from him.
04:15He's been better in Seattle, right?
04:17Then he's been on the road.
04:20Uh, but you know, every time I lose another guy time that every time I look to stick a
04:26fork in him, sometimes he goes out there and gives you these, uh, you know, these ridiculous
04:30efforts last time out, Cincinnati only gave up three earned.
04:34He went seven innings though, and he threw a hundred pitches.
04:37So, you know, which version of him shows up here?
04:40Maybe a first five over.
04:43Yeah.
04:43I would look to continuously fake Castillo.
04:45You know, one of the things I've been going to a lot for him this season is hits allowed.
04:49And it was four and a half against Cincinnati.
04:51You know, I lost by the hook on that one last time out versus Cincinnati, but it's been
04:55cashing pretty regularly this season.
04:57And again, this is instead of betting a minus 210 on the Dodgers, I always want to find
05:01an alternate route and, you know, whether it's pitchers and under on an outs prop and,
05:05you know, over on earned runs, under on, you know, under on strikeouts, over on hits
05:09allowed, you can find better numbers and say, Hey, the pitcher is going to be bad, not betting
05:14on a money line.
05:15Let's find another way to do it.
