- 4 hours ago
The interim peace deal between the United States and Iran has collapsed just three weeks after its signing, as military strikes resume from both sides.
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00:00So the big question that we are asking at the top of the news today,
00:03is Donald Trump spoiling for another war now?
00:06Is this really a fight to control the Strait of Hormuz above all else?
00:11Brinkmanship by Donald Trump and Iran?
00:13Has the world been held to ransom by the U.S. versus Iran war rhetoric?
00:18That's the question I want to raise.
00:20Joining me now, Richard M. Sanders, ex-advisor,
00:22chief of staff of the U.S. Army.
00:24He is someone who's worked, therefore, very closely
00:28with the United States Army.
00:29Also joining me is General Mark Miley.
00:34He is a former member of the U.S. Department of State,
00:38Senior Foreign Service.
00:40Also joining me is Merzat Borujandi,
00:45Dean of College of Arts, Science and Education
00:48at Missouri University of Science and Technology.
00:52Thank you all very much for joining us on the show today.
00:56I want to come to you, Richard, first.
00:59What's your sense?
01:00Is Donald Trump sending out these mixed signals saying the ceasefire is over
01:04but talks will continue?
01:06Try and make sense of it for us.
01:10Well, I don't think that either country is exactly prepared to begin full-scale war.
01:17You have a real tug of war between the two countries right now.
01:21You have to go back to the memorandum of understanding to really see what this is all about.
01:28The memorandum made it clear that Iran was obligated to facilitate transit through the Straits of Hormuz
01:38and that neither side was to engage in military action.
01:42And that seemed to be holding for a while.
01:45Ships were passing through and the price of oil was declining.
01:50However, Iran chose to attack tankers that were going by a southern route through the territory of the state of
01:59Oman.
02:00And I think what was behind that is Iran is very much interested in having complete control over the Straits
02:07of Hormuz.
02:10Even for ships that are transiting through what is not their territorial waters, but Omani territorial waters.
02:18The Iranian approach seems to be what's mine is mine and what's yours is mine, too.
02:23They made these attacks.
02:24There was a response.
02:26Then it was repeated.
02:27Now people are catching their breath.
02:29Some talks are beginning.
02:31At the same time, there's high, sharp rhetoric on all sides.
02:35American, Iranian, even Israeli as well.
02:38So we'll just have to see how it pans out for now.
02:42So you seem to be suggesting that Iran wants to control the state of Hormuz.
02:47And that is the source, according to you, of the conflict at the moment.
02:51There's a different viewpoint, of course, that Iran has.
02:53I'm joined also by Dr. Fawd Izzadi, Associate Professor, University of Tehran.
02:58You heard what Mr. Sanders said, Mr. Izzadi, that it's Iran which wants to control the state of Hormuz.
03:05That's where the conflict at the moment has been triggered.
03:08How fair a statement is that Iran wants sole control of the state of Hormuz?
03:15Iran needs to have negotiations with Oman.
03:19We have two coastal states, Iran and Oman.
03:23United States is not a coastal state to a state of Hormuz.
03:27United States is 11,000 kilometers away.
03:30We don't live in the 19th century.
03:32You don't get to go to the other side of the world and push countries around.
03:38We have this conventional law of seas.
03:41Under conventional law of seas, you get to have 12 miles of territorial waters
03:48and 12 miles of contiguous zone.
03:51It's Article 33.
03:53And under UN Conventional Law of Seas, ships can pass through.
03:59But it should be innocent passage.
04:02Article 19 defines what innocent is.
04:04It means you are not supposed to be threatening the security of the coastal state.
04:10So the ships that were hit were in Iran's contiguous zone.
04:16The same thing is proven...
04:17No, but why were they fired upon?
04:18The fact is, why were they fired upon?
04:20Ironically, sir, I did my master's in the law of the sea.
04:26The law of the sea does not permit you to fire at vessels
04:30or to take control of the waterway in the way Iran wants.
04:34No, you need to go back, please, and read the text again.
04:38You know, you seem to have passed your classes many years ago.
04:43So reviewing those classes...
04:45No, on what basis is Iran firing at vessels?
04:47On what basis does Iran want to fire at vessels?
04:50Right.
04:51Violation of Article 5 of the Memorandum of Understanding.
04:55These passages during the 60 days should be under Iranian arrangement.
05:01So the United States wants to control the state of Hormuz.
05:05They have created...
05:06They think...
05:07They're making a big mistake.
05:09They think they have created another route.
05:11And they are forcing ships to go through the American route.
05:16And that's a violation of Article 5.
05:19They have violated Article 1.
05:21They have threatened them to attack Iran.
05:23Just a few minutes ago, Trump has said that the ceasefire is over.
05:27This MOU is supposed to last for 60 days.
05:30So we have another month or so before the ceasefire is over.
05:37You know, the United States followed the MOU for about five hours.
05:42Because five hours after Trump signed the agreement, peak exit, Secretary of War threatened to attack Iran, which is a
05:49violation of Article 1.
05:50So Iran is not going to push that out.
05:53I can assure you of that.
05:54I take your point.
05:56In fact, Mr. Sanders, before I come to you, Mehrzad, I just want to get you in, Mr. Sanders.
06:00We are showing pictures.
06:01The fact is, you know, it's not as if the Americans have not targeted Iranian boats.
06:05It's not as if Americans have not targeted Iranian facilities.
06:09Both in rhetoric and in targeting American facilities, rail lines have been targeted.
06:14What kind of a ceasefire is this, Mr. Sanders?
06:16You have a ceasefire and talks taking place, and yet the U.S. president is ratcheting up the rhetoric and
06:22has actually, the American forces have targeted Iranian boats as well as Iranian infrastructure.
06:31Well, I don't believe Iran is in a position to hold the entire global economy by the throat.
06:39They have signed an agreement, the Memorandum of Understanding, which calls upon them to facilitate transit.
06:46It does not grant them control.
06:49They may regret the fact that they signed it, but they did sign it, and they ought to comply with
06:55it.
06:56The right of innocent passage is long and established.
06:58Mr. Sanders, with due regard, the Memorandum of Understanding also does not allow United States to unilaterally target Iranian establishment
07:07and infrastructure.
07:12Unfortunately, they chose to ignore the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding.
07:18They targeted the ships, and the United States responded.
07:23That response was proportionate, and it was inevitable, sir.
07:27Therefore, we should not be surprised at it.
07:29But I would agree both sides need to call to chill out, to ratchet the rhetoric down, and see whether
07:36the situation can be salvaged.
07:38It is in nobody's interest to have this turn into a full-scale war.
07:43So, let's see whether the Qatari and Pakistani and Turkish and other mediators can find a way to get Iran
07:50to understand that it has to abide by the terms of what it agreed to.
07:55Let me get in, Mehrzad Burujerdi.
07:59Mehrzad, you're hearing two very different views, and this is really where the problem lies.
08:03The gaping trust deficit, even in the wording of the Memorandum of Understanding, whether Iran was meant to facilitate the
08:11movement of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz or control them.
08:16What's your sense?
08:18Given this gaping trust deficit, do you believe the MOU is dead, or do you believe that there is still
08:23hope?
08:25Well, I think we are seeing the fragile nature of an ambiguously worded MOU that is showing us its shortcomings,
08:35right?
08:35So, for example, the MOU talks about the right of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but doesn't really crystal
08:42clear define who is going to be in charge, who is going to be controlling that.
08:47And now we are seeing this politics of brinksmanship by both sides, you know, adopting an approach of tit-for
08:57-tat, because Iran is trying to, you know, assert its authority over the Strait of Hormuz and the passage of
09:06ships.
09:07And the United States is, of course, trying to undermine that by, you know, promoting this alternative route through the
09:14coastal waters of Oman.
09:16Now, and I think that's the gist of the conflict that we are seeing.
09:21But I don't think we need to exaggerate what is at stake.
09:25I think this is still within the threshold of pain for both sides, because both realize that going back to
09:33a full-fledged war does not make sense, is not going to serve the interest of either side.
09:39And I don't think, you know, we will end up in that situation.
09:43So, really, the ball is now in the court of all these, you know, mediators that are trying to, you
09:53know, bring the two sides closer to one another.
09:56And hopefully we will have cooler heads prevail and maybe come up with version two of that MOU that needs
10:04to be tightened up in terms of exactly what is meant.
10:08But, you see, Merzah, the problem is even in that MOU, there is ambiguity, particularly over the nuclear question.
10:15There is ambiguity over, as we said, over the Strait of Hormuz.
10:19What kind of control will Iran exercise over it?
10:22Given all of that, do you believe it's possible for the two sides?
10:27You're still hopeful that the two sides will come to an agreement?
10:31Or is it only because you believe that war, West Asia War 2.0, is simply off the table at
10:38the moment?
10:39No, I think, you know, both sides realize there is enough political sense, I think, on both sides and realistic
10:47assessment,
10:48despite the propaganda that each side engages in to depict the other as, you know, being in fault.
10:54But I think there is enough common sense to realize that a full-fledged conflict is not in the interest
11:01of anyone.
11:02Look, already we are seeing the price of oil go up.
11:05We are seeing the impact on the stock market.
11:08So, certainly, President Trump has to be worried about that.
11:11And for Iran, you know, just what happened yesterday, attacking even the northern provinces of the country,
11:19you know, a railroad system and so forth, is yet another painful reminder of the type of pain that the
11:28U.S. can cause by attacking Iran.
11:31You know, Dr. Izzani, it comes to that.
11:34Tehran is being aggressive, warning Israel, warning the United States.
11:39Isn't this a self-defeating strategy that risks turning the temporary sanction relief that you've got once again into permanent
11:47isolation
11:48and deeper economic collapse that Tehran also needs to dial down?
11:53You know, it's not just Donald Trump who needs to dial down, and he does, but so does Tehran.
12:00Yes, and I think this is why you had the MOU, Iranian officials, wanted to avoid the continuation of the
12:09war,
12:11attacking other countries, killing their leaders, attacking schools, attacking hospitals.
12:16You know, Dr. Burujerdi referred to U.S. attacking raid roads.
12:21We had millions of people going to the funeral of the leader of the country,
12:27and they attacked the railroad that was reaching that city, was going to Mashhad, the city on northeast of Tehran.
12:35So we are dealing with war criminals.
12:38We are dealing with people who have violated the agreement since day one,
12:43and Iran is doing Article 51 of the U.N. Charter.
12:47When a country is attacked, that country has the responsibility and the right to defend itself,
12:54and putting both sides on the same page would not be a very good idea because Iran is the victim
13:02of the Epstein class.
13:04We have the Israelis that need to have some sort of a military confrontation.
13:09Netanyahu is running for elections in October, and he wants war.
13:13He is avoiding his court appearances, arguing that there is an estate of emergency,
13:18and he needs to have war to win elections.
13:21And the United States, Trump, instead of doing America first, is doing Israel first,
13:27because he is providing soldiers for Netanyahu to fight his wars against Iran.
13:32So we are dealing with people who want to take over Iranian oil,
13:36and this is not the analysis of an Iranian professor.
13:39This is what Trump said just a couple of months ago.
13:42And those millions of people who showed up in the streets,
13:46they are not going to allow their oil to be taken.
13:49You know, it comes down to that, Richard Sanders, in conclusion,
13:53that Donald Trump perhaps overextended himself.
13:56He thought that this would be a quick war.
13:58It didn't quite work out.
13:59The MOU is seen by many to be concessionary,
14:04and Donald Trump doesn't like to be seen to be concessionary.
14:07Hence, he ratchets up the rhetoric.
14:09This is Donald Trump's rhetoric,
14:12which is not going to match the reality on the ground,
14:14because America can also not afford another escalating conflict.
14:18Do you believe that's perhaps the right way to look at it,
14:21that we need to look beyond the rhetoric?
14:24And the reality is that neither country at the moment,
14:27including the United States, the so-called mighty United States,
14:30even in an asymmetric war, cannot afford another conflict?
14:38Well, I would certainly agree with you that diplomacy by microphone can only take you so far.
14:45They have to get into the conference room and see what can be done,
14:48consistent with international law, consistent with the agreements that were already reached.
14:54It is, I agree, not in people's interest to go back to a larger, more intense conflict.
15:00But at the same time, I don't think we can regard the Straits of Hormuz as somehow Iran's spoils of
15:08war.
15:09I think we need to get way past that and come up with pragmatic solutions.
15:15Merzat, you want to get a final word in?
15:17Do you believe that Iran will never give up now?
15:20They've almost weaponized the Straits of Hormuz.
15:23Do you believe they'll continue to do so?
15:26Well, I think, you know, Iran will use this card, you know, of the Straits of Hormuz,
15:31now and into the future, as a bargaining chip, for sure.
15:36You know, this war demonstrated the value of a Straits of Hormuz.
15:40You know, we could see the damage that Iran could cause to the global economy.
15:45And therefore, I think, you know, realistically speaking, this is certainly at the back of their minds.
15:51And it's a card that they are going to use.
15:53And yet, if I was in the shoes of the Iranian leaders, right, I also need to counter that with
16:00the following.
16:01How much do I gain by, you know, charging, you know, passage fees on ships vis-a-vis what I
16:09can gain by the release of the frozen assets, by the lifting of sanctions?
16:16I personally believe that the latter is going to be much more advantageous to Iran in the long term, right?
16:23I mean, just think about the global oil trade, et cetera, et cetera.
16:26So, while this is a card for negotiation as a bargaining chip, I can certainly make sense of it.
16:33I think we should not lose sight of the larger picture about why reaching a more, you know, sustained peace
16:41deal here could be advantageous to Iran as well.
16:45Fascinating to hear three fine voices speak on the issue.
16:49And I appreciate all of you taking the time off because, as I said, the world is on the edge.
16:54We need to dial down.
16:55Hopefully, Donald Trump needs to dial down, as does the Iranian leadership.
17:01Thank you all very much for joining me.
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