00:00Angela, it is good to have you here with Bailey and me.
00:03I'm kind of shocked.
00:04We are all shocked that we're still talking about this war,
00:06despite all the destruction, the deaths, the global impact.
00:10Why are these two countries back at war, are still at war?
00:15Because Vladimir Putin still believes he can win the war,
00:18even though the tide, if it hasn't resolutely turned,
00:22it's certainly turning in Ukraine's favor
00:25with all of the drones that they're using,
00:28their strikes into Russia.
00:29But Putin still believes he can wear the Ukrainians down.
00:32And we've seen that with these massive barrage
00:35of ballistic missile attacks on Kiev and other cities,
00:38so escalating from the Russian point of view.
00:41That's why the war's going on.
00:42I mean, President Zelensky would be willing to agree to a ceasefire
00:46and then obviously more negotiations on how this comes to an end.
00:50But it's Putin that's keeping it going.
00:53Well, Angela, on that note, is it all optics and ego
00:56that Putin can't walk back or live with the view that forever we would remember
01:01they weren't successful in this war?
01:03So he's now staked this.
01:05He thinks that not only is his regime's survival dependent on winning this war,
01:10but his own personal survival.
01:12This is how he's defined it.
01:14As far as we understand, it's quite possible that the people around him,
01:17this is a very authoritarian country,
01:20are giving him the news that he wants to hear.
01:22He may not fully understand what's happening on the battlefield in Ukraine,
01:26but he is just digging his heels in and he's presenting it to his population
01:31that this is just like World War II and just like we beat the Nazis,
01:36we're going to beat the Nazi Ukrainians.
01:39How stressed are the people, though, in Russia and economically because of this war?
01:43And does that really matter to President Putin?
01:46Well, so they are feeling the stress much more.
01:49There are gasoline shortages in Russia,
01:51which is the third largest producer of oil in the world.
01:55There are food shortages, for instance, in Crimea,
01:59where the Ukrainians have been hitting very hard.
02:02People are trying to leave the island now
02:04because they just can't survive on what they have.
02:07People are feeling it.
02:08But it's very hard to convey this or for this to have an actual impact
02:14on what the Kremlin does,
02:15because whenever you try and criticize it, at least publicly,
02:19or you protest publicly, you can be arrested, you can be jailed.
02:23So there is somewhat more kind of nuanced criticism that one hears about.
02:29Well, maybe it's really time to end the war.
02:31Also from the business community, never criticizing, of course, the president himself.
02:36But it's very hard to make an impression on the Kremlin itself
02:42just because there's more grumbling among the population.
02:45And Trump saying that Zelensky has done an amazing job,
02:48which is quite the turn from where the two's relationship had been.
02:52What does that mean for Russia if Trump seemingly is fully in Ukraine's corner?
02:57And what are the other countries around the world thinking about?
02:59And how has that evolved?
03:00So I think the Russians understand that Trump isn't fully in Ukraine's corner.
03:05I mean, he had a long telephone conversation with Putin just before the NATO summit.
03:11And he came away from that saying, yes, well, Putin really wants peace.
03:14But what's really changed is that Trump understands now,
03:18you know, having told Zelensky in that awful Oval Office meeting in February of 2025,
03:23you have no cards.
03:24He sees that Ukraine looks like a winner, that it has cards,
03:28that the Ukrainians are really fighting back.
03:30And I think that's really impressed him.
03:33And that's why he's been willing to say that Ukraine can get the licenses
03:38for manufacturing Patriot air batteries, air defenses.
03:42Although we have to be very cautious, this is going to take quite a long time.
03:46They have to sign the agreements with U.S. companies and things like that.
03:49But again, that is a major reversal.
03:51So I think he appreciates winners and he appreciates that whatever he really thinks
03:57of Ukrainian President Zelensky, that the Ukrainians have done a pretty impressive job
04:02of innovating and fighting back.
04:04Well, you make the great point that this isn't something you just flip a switch
04:07and then Patriot missiles are rolling off of a machine line and being put to use.
04:12How does that lag by itself impact what kind of comes next in the timing
04:17from the Ukraine perspective?
04:18Yeah, so I think in the immediate, really short-term future,
04:23Ukraine is still in a very difficult position because Russia is increasingly using
04:28these ballistic missiles.
04:29And Ukraine just doesn't have the air defenses to counter these ballistic missiles.
04:34And we saw that in the most recent strikes on Kyiv where more people were killed.
04:39So Ukraine desperately really needs these Patriot batteries.
04:44The U.S. doesn't have many of them because it's been using them in the war against Iran.
04:49The Europeans don't have that many, and they really purchased them from the U.S.
04:54So it's not going to help Ukraine in the short run.
04:58But in the longer run, if the licenses are granted and if they can really produce these
05:04Patriot batteries rather quickly, it could help them going forward, let's say, next year.
05:09Angela, I always do think about, you know, certainly Russia, but I also think of it in this war in
05:16particular against Ukraine.
05:17But I also think of it in the context of the access of Russia, Iran, China can throw in North
05:22Korea there as well.
05:23Is that important to kind of keep in mind as we watch this war between Russia and Ukraine
05:28specifically?
05:29Yes, I think it's very important.
05:31I mean, we have to remember that without China, Putin probably wouldn't still be in this war
05:36because the Chinese have been buying the Russian oil.
05:39They've been supplying the Russians with all kinds of technology and components.
05:44They haven't actually sold them weapons as far as we know, at least in the public.
05:48But they certainly provide them with the components for the weaponry.
05:51And they don't want to see Russia lose this war.
05:54North Koreans, of course, have supplied them with ammunition.
05:57They have supplied them with soldiers who were fighting and who are still fighting with
06:03the Russian forces.
06:04And the Iranians were very important in the beginning in supplying Russia with these Shahid
06:09drones.
06:10By now, the Russians have perfected those drones.
06:13And in fact, they've supplied Iran with the more modern drones in its current war with the
06:17United States.
06:18But this group of countries, these three countries are very important to Russia, China being the
06:24most important in terms of its ability to continue waging this war.
06:29How important is President Trump in all of this?
06:30Like, it's hard to gauge, you know, friendly to President Zelensky, it seemed today, but
06:35also talks about how much he talks to President Putin.
06:38I'm never quite sure.
06:39You know, keep your friends close.
06:41Keep your enemies closer.
06:42I don't know how to read it anymore.
06:44But how important is President Trump in perhaps putting pressure on President Putin?
06:50I mean, he could put more pressure on President Putin.
06:53We could have tougher economic sanctions.
06:56There is this bill.
06:57There are several bills in the Senate, which a majority of the senators, Republicans and
07:02Democrats support.
07:03But the Republicans are waiting for the go-ahead from President Trump to sign this legislation.
07:09So that would be important.
07:12And again, if the U.S. were willing to provide Ukraine, maybe via the Europeans, with more
07:18sophisticated weapons, with the Patriot batteries, with the Tomahawk missiles, then that would
07:25put more pressure on President Putin.
07:27But so far, the Trump administration has not been willing to apply that pressure.
07:32And that is why I think President Putin still holds out hope that he can still get Trump
07:37to pressure Zelensky to give up territory, although that doesn't seem likely at the very moment.
07:43Is there any risk—and we've only got about 30 seconds here, 45 seconds here—what are
07:48the risks of contagion when we have the conflict going on in Iran, when we have, obviously,
07:53the conflict going on in Ukraine?
07:55Well, I think one of the risks is, will Russia try, as it escalates, to broaden the war and,
08:01in fact, attack more indirectly or possibly directly, a NATO member state.
08:07And some of the frontline states believe that this could happen.
08:10So I think that's something to watch for.
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