Russia’s Biggest Foreign-Policy Disasters Under Putin

Elvira Bary

👉Go to https://surfshark.com/bary or use code BARY at checkout to get 4 extra months of Surfshark VPN!  Elvira Bary grades Vladimir Putin’s record abroad - continent by continent. Europe replaced Russian gas and rewired its energy system; the “near abroad” hedged away; Turkey and the Middle East exploited Moscow’s weakness; the U.S. and NATO were revived; Africa stayed transactional; and China turned “partnership” into dependence. Through markets lost, alliances frayed, and leverage squandered, this episode shows how intimidation backfired - and why Russia’s influence has shrunk under Putin.  Video Chapters:   00:00 The Foreign Policy Disaster Putin Will Be Remembered For 03:27 Europe 05:54 Former Soviet States 10:32 Turkey and the Middle East 14:25 The United States 17:02 Africa 20:16 China 22:14 Economic Warfare  👉 JOIN ME ON THE JOURNEY Sign-up for news about the New Book here:  https://elvirabary.com/elvira-barys-newsletter/  MY HISTORICAL FICTION BOOK SERIES ➡️ Russian Treasures (a historical novel about the Bolshevik Revolution and Russian Civil War) https://amzn.to/43PutaM ➡️ The White Ghosts&#039; Empire (a historical novel about the Russian refugees who destroyed the myth of

Transcript

00:00Vladimir Putin has never been much of a domestic politician.

00:04He does not like mingling with the people, does not care about fixing potholes or hospitals or

00:10schools. His eyes have always been turned outward. What excites him is war. What excites him is

00:19sitting at the Polish table with world leaders, dividing spheres of influence, making an impression.

00:26He built his political persona as the collector of Russian lands, the man who promised to restore

00:34global respect and make Russia great again. That's the mythology. But today, let's peel away the

00:41propaganda, the fear and the smoke of spectacle. Let's imagine something simpler. Imagine we are

00:49a hiring committee. We need a foreign policy expert. Someone who can make a country strong,

00:57respected and secure. And in walks our candidate, Vladimir Putin. Not young, but with years of

01:06experience and, as he insists, powerful connections. We sit him down and say, all right, Mr. Putin,

01:14tell us what exactly have you accomplished in your career. But before we dive in, let's talk about

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03:28For a while, Putin's effort to bind Europe to cheap pipeline gas bore fruit. Before the full-scale

03:36invasion, roughly 40% of all gas consumed in Europe came from Russia. Germany was the largest buyer, using

03:46heavily discounted Russian energy to expand its powerful manufacturing industry. Some countries,

03:53such as Austria and Slovakia, obtained 80-90% of their gas from Russia. That was why Dmitry Medvedev,

04:03the former president of Russia, taunted that Europe would freeze in winter, forecasting 5,000 euros per

04:131000 cubic meters and pushing ruble payments. But in reality, Europe merely shifted to other providers that

04:22quickly overtook Russia and brought its share down to high teens. First, Norway became the top supplier.

04:30Then American liquefied natural gas flooded in through Germany's first floating storage and

04:36regasification unit at Williamshaven. That moved from idea to operation in months. European renewables surged as well.

04:47Last year, wind and solar provided almost a third of electricity. In June 2025,

04:55solar topped the EU power mix for the first time. The effect on Moscow was brutal. The SPROM posted its

05:04first annual loss in more than two decades, a direct consequence of losing its most lucrative market.

05:11Brussels now speaks openly of phasing out Russian gas entirely, citing the Kremlin's weaponization of

05:19energy as the reason. Gazprom's wounded expert arm, once a symbol of state power, has been reduced to a

05:28shadow of itself. Attempts to replace Europe with China aren't closing the gap. At this point,

05:35we'll look up at candidate Putin and raise an eyebrow. Excuse us? But this looks very strange. Maybe

05:45you'd like to tell us about your relationships with the former Soviet republics? Former Soviet states.

05:55After the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia planned to keep the newly independent states in a tight orbit

06:02using subsidies, threats, and troops. But something went wrong. The Baltics are NATO members and among the

06:10loudest voices for deterrence, hosting Allied forces and hardening their borders. Ukraine, whose politics

06:19Moscow once manipulated with cheap gas broke decisively west. EU accession talks opened, military ties with

06:28NATO deepened, and popular sentiment hardened after a full-scale invasion. The three war years minted a new

06:36Ukrainian identity that doesn't look to Moscow for anything. Belarus was supposed to be the closest success

06:43of a story of integration. In reality, it's a cash sink that brings Moscow a little beyond a blind border.

06:52Minsk's Ostrovets nuclear plant was built by Rosatom on a $10 billion Russian state loan. Their financing

07:02binds Moscow for decades with a little strategic upside beyond keeping Lukashenko afloat. Since the full-scale

07:10invasion, Belarus has also relied on Russian ports for about 14 million tons of export capacity,

07:18another logistical subsidy. And even when discounts were supposed to reward loyalty, they largely

07:27benefited Minsk. Today, Belarus enjoys a 30% price cut on Russian oil and cash compensation under the

07:35tax maneuver agreement. This deal takes money out of Moscow's pocket. Belarus invests it into refineries

07:45that compete with Russian ones. In Central Asia, leaders now hedge hard. Kazakhstan's president told

07:52Putin to his face at the St. Petersburg Forum that he wouldn't recognize Russia's proxy republics in

07:59Ukraine. Then hosted US and EU invoice, upped trade with China and joined new logistic routes that bypass

08:08Russia. In the past two years, all five Central Asian states reported record-high trade volumes in China.

08:15Beijing inked a permanent Good Neighbors Treaty with each of them and pushed the China-Kyrgyzstan-Ozbekistan

08:23railway that bypasses Russia entirely. The volumes coming from this Trans-Caspian middle corridor

08:31near tripled as shippers rerouted cargo away from sanctioned Russian routes. On top of that,

08:39Kyrgyzstan was added to China's renminbi clearing network, a quiet signal that future trade will clear

08:45more smoothly in Yuan. The direction is clear. Central Asian states prefer China over Russia,

08:54and their sovereignty over historical ties. Even the South Caucasus flipped the script.

09:00After the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh rekindled in 2023, Armenia suspended its participation in the

09:07Collective Security Treaty Organization. A bloc included Russia and its five allies,

09:12invited in EU monitoring mission, and began rearming with Western KIT. Their foreign policy

09:19vocabulary regarding Russia shifted from security patron to security failure. Georgia remains divided,

09:27but the political fight is no longer about aligning with Moscow. It's about whether to keep an EU path.

09:33Moldova, long held hostage by Gazprom billing and Russian control over its Transnistrian territory,

09:41stopped buying Russian gas, and is now negotiating EU membership. The war in Ukraine exposed Moscow's

09:48guarantee as unreliable. Neighbors responded by diversifying, inviting new partners, and,

09:57in some cases, publicly rebuking the Kremlin. Influence built on coercion evaporates when the

10:04cursor looks weak. By now, we can see our candidate's resume is looking rather shabby. But since it feels

10:14rude to throw him out of the interview, we give him one more chance. So, Mr. Putin, we say,

10:22what about Turkey and the Middle East? You did say things were going well there. Turkey and the Middle East.

10:33On paper, it was a strongman chemistry. Erdogan and Putin cutting deals on gas, grain, and guns while bashing the

10:42West.

10:42In practice, Turkey exploited Russia's weakness. The Bikar plant sold TB2 drones to Ukraine,

10:50at one point donating free airframe after a public crowdfunding drive.

10:55Embedding Ankara in Kyiv's war effort both materially and symbolically. Days into the invasion,

11:02Turkey invoked the Monroe Convention and closed the Straits to most warships to the Bilingrins,

11:10quietly blocking any Russian naval reinforcement from the Mediterranean. That single legal lever

11:17mattered more than a dozen soundbites. Turkish exports to Russia surged after Western companies

11:23left while Ankara bought discounted Russian energy. When U.S. sanctions pressure rose,

11:31Turkish banks pulled the plug on Russia's mere payment system and died in compliance. Turkey

11:38brokered the Black Sea-Green initiative alongside the UN, repeatedly extracting concessions from Moscow,

11:45while publicly keeping lines open to the Kremlin. While Ukraine shut its transit in January 2025,

11:53the only remaining pipeline for Russian gas into the EU was Turkey's TurkStream that made Ankara the

12:02gatekeeper. That solved an immediate logistics problem for Moscow, but Turkey is using its position

12:09to extract concessions, such as deferring hundreds of millions of dollars in Gazprom payments.

12:15On top of that, TurkStream can only transport a fraction of pre-war volumes that once crossed Ukraine.

12:22The much dotted Turkish gas hub that might relabel or pull molecules has also stalled as EU rules are

12:30moving toward tighter Aboriginal disclosure. Turkey's leadership is pragmatic. It would rather stay in the

12:38West's good graces than aid Russia, despite the public display of friendship. In the Middle East,

12:45Syria was supposed to be Russia's base for power projection, a warm-water naval foothold at Tartus,

12:53an airbase at Khmeimim, a leverage with every regional capital. But Ukraine bled Moscow's bandwidth. In 2022,

13:04Russia even held an S-300 battery out of Syria, symbolic of priorities shifting home. Iran stepped

13:12into the vacuum with oil credit lines and militias. Next year, Syrian oil imports from Iran climbed again,

13:22and Tehran embedded itself economically and military. Israel, meanwhile, struck Iranian targets across

13:31Syria with growing intensity. Moscow neither stopped those raids nor converted its Syria role

13:38into regional leadership. Then came the larger shock, the collapse of the Assad regime in late 2024,

13:44which abandoned Iran's influence and stripped Moscow of its most visible Middle Eastern client. Russia still

13:52holds the cost and can project limited power, but it is no longer central to the region's balance.

14:00In Levantine politics, Turkey, Israel and Iran drive events far more than Moscow. We are already

14:08staring down at the table with sour faces. It feels awkward, even embarrassing. But Putin doesn't give

14:17up. Well, I'm a good friend of Donald Trump, the United States. From the very beginning, Putin dreamed of

14:28standing toe-to-toe with Washington. The ultimate prize. To him, America wasn't just an adversary. It was the

14:36measuring stick. If he could force the U.S. to treat Russia as an equal, the Soviet collapse would be

14:45avenged.

14:46We flip through the results. In cyber operations and election interference, Russia rattled nerves,

14:52yes, but it also triggered massive sanctions. The expulsion of diplomats and a bipartisan consensus in

15:02Washington that Russia is the enemy. In fact, one of Putin's few genuine achievements was getting

15:09Republicans and Democrats who agree on almost nothing to unite against him. Even NATO, which was once

15:18described as brain dead, has been reborn with American leadership at the core. Finland and Sweden,

15:25once carefully neutral, joined the alliance. U.S. troops rotate through Eastern Europe in larger numbers

15:34than at any point since the Cold War. Far from pushing the United States out, Putin has given

15:41Washington the perfect reason to dig deeper in. Economically, the contrast is even sharper. While Russia's

15:50GDP has shrunk under sanctions, America substitutes Russia on energy and weapons markets. Putin may brag

15:59that Russia is standing up to the U.S., but the numbers don't lie. Moscow has become Washington's best

16:07argument for bigger defense budgets and new military contracts. As for the much-hyped friendship with

16:15Donald Trump, so far, the only tangible results were a plane trip that burned plenty of kerosene on the

16:21way to Alaska. And some boastful chatter about potential breakthroughs that never materialized. We close the

16:31folder and look at our candidate. Mr. Putin, forgive us, but this looks less like a resume and more like

16:40a

16:40cautionary tale. You set out to humble America. But instead, you revived NATO, unified Washington, and

16:47turned your country into a convenient villain. Putin shifts uncomfortably, then leans forward. But wait,

16:55he insists. Have I told you about Africa? Africa.

17:03Moscow's Africa Playbook

17:04Moscow's Africa Playbook mixed dead write-offs, arms, and Wagner muscle. It bought flags for parades and

17:11votes at the UN, but not loyalty. In the second Russian Africa Summit in 2023, it had 17 heads of

17:21state,

17:21down from 43 at the first. A public vote of limited confidence, despite Kremlin promises of

17:28free grain and fresh write-offs. Russia announced 23 billion dollars in historic debt cancellations

17:37and pledged tens of thousands of tons of grain to a handful of countries. But that is charity,

17:45not development finance. It does not build roads, power plants, or factories. The security pillar was

17:53just as flimsy. After Prigozhin's death, the Kremlin rushed to rebate Wagner as Africa Corp and keep

18:01contracts alive in Mali and the Central African Republic. Operations continued, but the nature of the ties,

18:09security for mining rights, remained transactional. Reporting on Ngasima gold concession in C.A.A.R. shows

18:17how resource deals and paramilitary protection blur into one. In Sahel, Hondas in Mali, Burkina

18:25Faso and Niger severed ties with France and welcomed Russians. Yet jihadist violence kept spreading.

18:34Human rights organizations and UN experts documented atrocities by Mali forces and Russian operatives,

18:42including the Mura massacre. Influence that rides on fear rather than institutions cannot stabilize a country.

18:51And clients notice. But the most important handicap is scale. Moscow's capacity to finance grand

18:59projects is limited. It has no aid agencies comparable to USA, Germany's GIZ or EU's NDICI. And its trade

19:11investment footprint in Africa is dwarfed by China's. Leaders may accept ceremonial owners and security teams,

19:20but when they want ports, grids, and industrial parks, they turn to partners with deep pockets and

19:26unpredictable financing, such as China, their EU or Gulf funds. In addition, Moscow's own behavior often

19:35undercut its speech to the Global South. Quitting the Black Sea Grain initiative triggered food price

19:42spikes and public rebukes from African officials. Later, ad-hoc grain export curbs to tame Russian inflation

19:50confused buyers and ascended sales to competitors. Coming together,

19:55all these shortcomings and mistakes rendered Russia's effort to establish influence in Africa largely futile.

20:04We are already covering our faces with our hands, but Putin interrupts. And I've also found a strategic partner!

20:11China! China!

20:17Russia's concept of multipolarity was meant to put Beijing and Moscow on equal footing, united against the West.

20:25Instead, dependence is stacked up on China's term. Start with finance. By mid-2024, Chinese state banks

20:33tightened compliance in response to U.S. secondary sanctions risk, freezing or rejecting payments

20:40en masse, and trapping billions of yuan in limbo for Russian firms. In 2025, border deals returned, Chinese

20:49suppliers swapping marine engines for Russian metals at the Kazan trade fair, because clearing cash had

20:57become that hard. Then, the real economy. Chinese brands now account for well over half of Russia's

21:04car sales and dominate the EV niche. Meanwhile, Russian exports to China remains modest, and the

21:12flagship gas pivot, the power of Siberia 2 pipeline, sits unsigned despite years of Kremlin promises.

21:21Finally, the narrative. Moscow sells no-limits partnership at rallies. Chinese technocrats sell risk

21:28management. In practice, that means Chinese banks, shippers, and insurers step back when sanctions

21:36heat rises. And Chinese manufacturers demand higher margins or prepayment. The trade headline numbers look

21:44large, but the terms discounted Russian commodities for higher-value Chinese goods, with payments contingent

21:52on political climate, tell who's senior. By now it's clear. Mr. Putin has failed at absolutely everything

22:00he could. We thank the candidate, show him the door, and once we are along, we begin to discuss

22:07what on earth just happened. Economic warfare.

22:15Moscow's foreign policy toolkit – food banks, import substitution, gas blackmail – looked tough on

22:21talk shows and thin in practice. The 2014 food embargo raised prices and cut choices within Russia itself.

22:30Russian and international studies found consumers paid more and ate less variety.

22:37Import substitution delivered pockets of success in agriculture, but in industry it mostly meant

22:45delays, lower quality, and high cost. Problems that deepened as critical components vanished.

22:53State-backed reports now consider that a decade of substitution hasn't created competitive

22:59technology clusters. Weaponizing gas proved self-destructive. The EU replaced Russian imports with

23:06Norwegian pipeline gas. And US LNG built new terminals and accelerated clean power deployment.

23:15Reputation matters in commodities. Once buyers decide a supplier is unreliable, they lock in alternatives.

23:24That is exactly what Europe did. At the core of Russian diplomatic failures is an outdated idea that

23:30greatness equals territory and fear equals respect. Putin said the quiet part out loud in 2021,

23:37publishing an essay denying Ukraine's nationhood and framing conquest as restoration. The

23:5619th century, powers stocked like this openly. In the 21st, it marks a country as unsafe and backward.

24:05The costs are visible. Diplomatically, UN votes after February 2022 isolated Russia in ways the Kremlin

24:14did not expect. Economically, the state doubled down on extraction and armaments, starving innovation of

24:21inputs, markets, and people. Soft power collapsed, talent immigrated, brands left, and cultural reach narrowed

24:30to friendly or dependent regimes. Even military successes hold out leverage. By scaring neighbors,

24:38Russia pushed them into each other's arms and into institutions designed to contain Moscow. There is

24:46another, quieter cost. Building trust takes decades. Breaking it can take one winter. When governments,

24:54investors, and audiences decide your promises don't bind and your narratives are propaganda,

25:00the gravity field weakens. Others become clients who bargain hard. Adversaries treat your threats

25:06as noise unless packed by force. In place of respect, there is suspicion. In place of wealth,

25:16discount deals. In place of influence, dependence. The bid to revive an empire left Russia weaker and

25:25despised. Boxed in by sanctions, budget strain, and a growing dependence on Beijing. The Russian world

25:35didn't expand through the war in Ukraine. Instead, it retreated from its long-established markets and

25:43spheres of influence. History won't catalog Putin's legacy as statecraft. It will read as a case study

25:51in the limits of force. In the 21st century, lasting influence comes from trust, innovation, and partners

26:00who stay when pressure rises. Russia traded those for fear and short-term deals.

26:06Now, I want to recommend my historical novel series, Russian Treasures. It explores the first decade of Soviet power

26:14not as a dry timeline of facts, but as a living story. You'll see how the system took shape step

26:22by step, and more

26:23importantly, how it affected both ordinary people and extraordinary ones. The series is filled with

26:32unforgettable characters, each finding their own way to survive or outsmart a system determined to swallow

26:39them whole. At times tragic, at times darkly funny, but always true to history. If this video

26:47convinced you or angers you, see it with a question, can brute force ever produce real greatness?

26:54If this helps the picture snap into focus, help one more person see it. Like the video and share it

27:02with a friend who still thinks intimidation equals influence. If you are new here, subscribe.

27:09Join the conversation. In one line, name Putin's single biggest self-own abroad. And why?

27:17Europe, the near abroad, Turkey, Middle East, the US, NATO, Africa, or China.

27:24If you want to go deeper, you can join the think tank, members QAs and research notes,

27:31buy me a coffee, donate via PayPal, or leave a super thanks. Every contribution keeps this work

27:38independent. And I'll list all Buy Me A Coffee supporters in the closing credits of this video.

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