- 2 days ago
Grant & Danny react to ESPN rankings that all are low on the Commanders. What should the actual expectations be for the team in 2026?
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00:00So this is a bunch of the analysts over at NFL Media.
00:03The names include host Colleen Wolfe, writer Nick Shook,
00:10analyst, as far as the draft goes, Lance Zerline,
00:14another writer at NFL.com, Grant Gordon,
00:18and then some other NFL analysts, including Bucky Brooks
00:21and some people we've had on the show.
00:23The 2026 Commander's Records.
00:27The worst record, Shook from NFL.com, has Washington going 4-13.
00:33I don't know how that would be the case.
00:35That is no improvement, essentially, off of last year,
00:40and I would imagine you are telling me that you think Jaden Daniels
00:44is not going to play a lot.
00:45Yep.
00:46How would Jaden Daniels play a ton and they go 4-13?
00:50Either you think he stinks, which there's no way you could possibly think that
00:53after two seasons of watching him play,
00:56or you don't think he'll be healthy.
00:58I don't get the 4-13.
00:59That's the outlier, by the way.
01:01There's only one like that, but that is the floor for these predictions.
01:04That's hard to do.
01:05That's when you've got nothing but backups.
01:07That's when you've got all the injuries.
01:10Your starters hurt.
01:11Because even if you don't think this is going to work, right,
01:14where you go, the magic of year one,
01:15I'm thinking of the ultimate skeptic, right?
01:17The magic of year one will never be recreated.
01:19You can't get away with having a dramatically under-talented offense.
01:22Their offensive line is going to struggle.
01:24They got rid of a starter for no reason, didn't replace him.
01:27They're replacing him with a guard.
01:28They didn't go out and do anything other than getting an unproven tight end.
01:32Now, I like Chig.
01:33I'm just saying, again, I'm putting the skeptic hat on.
01:35McLaurin was hurt all last year.
01:37Why do we think that's going to be different?
01:39I just don't see this happening with a really difficult schedule.
01:42And even again, 4-13, that's Raiders, everyone gets fired territory.
01:46That's New York Jets type stuff.
01:47The bottom falling out to me is six wins.
01:50You just went through a bunch of storylines and said,
01:54if the worst thing happens 12 times over, you go 4-13.
01:59I don't think you should ever be predicting that the best thing's going to happen
02:03at a 95% clip, or the worst thing is.
02:06So to pick them to go 12-5 would make no sense.
02:09But to pick them to go 4-13 makes just as much sense, in my opinion.
02:12But I digress.
02:13We'll reach out to him.
02:14He's been on before.
02:15Curious to get his thoughts on why on earth you look at this roster,
02:18the deepest defensively they've been in a long, long time,
02:20with two new coordinators and a quarterback who is fully healthy at the moment
02:24and say they're going to go 4-13.
02:26The best case scenario among all these predictions,
02:30the highest win total that we got, and this is, again,
02:34seven different people calling their shot on the commanders, was 9-8.
02:39Yep.
02:40Brooke, Sir Soamy, I don't know who that is,
02:44but NFL.com writer has the commanders at 9-8.
02:47Nobody has them at 10-7, or better.
02:50And in fact, other than Brooke with the nine wins,
02:54no one else even has them at 8 wins.
02:56There are four 7-10s in there.
02:58You got 4-13 from Shook,
03:00then four different analysts said 7-10,
03:03one guy has them at 6-11,
03:04and then she's got them at 9-8.
03:07So there's exactly one of seven people saying they're going to finish over 500.
03:11When people have been asking me out and about,
03:13Nats games or otherwise,
03:14my prediction has been 9-8, 10-7.
03:18I think 10-7 in a wild card should be the expectation
03:22of this regime in year three.
03:24You've had multiple years to build this thing up.
03:27The NFC Championship game in year one happened.
03:29I'm kind of dismissing that as something cool that took place.
03:32It was a magical carpet ride,
03:33but it doesn't really matter anymore.
03:35Now, you're three years in,
03:37you're three drafts,
03:37you're three free agencies in.
03:39It is time to start putting some pieces together,
03:41especially when you kick-started this entire thing
03:44by unearthing the hardest thing to find,
03:46which is the franchise quarterback.
03:47So two full years and three football seasons
03:51after drafting Jaden Daniels,
03:52there's not really a good reason
03:54why you shouldn't have been able
03:55to get to 10-7 this year.
03:57That's how I feel about this team.
03:59But it's funny because here are seven national people
04:01looking at the same roster I am and going,
04:03this is a six or seven win team.
04:05That's what they've decided.
04:07Yeah, I think it's closer to 7-10 than it is to 12-5.
04:10I mean, I've talked about it with a bunch of sports dads
04:14and whoever else,
04:15and I think that 7-10, 8-9 range is very reasonable.
04:17Again, I think the schedule is arduous.
04:20I think it's one of the hardest ones in the sport at best.
04:25Again, I don't hear a number of things that I want to hear.
04:28Maybe the proof will be in the pudding,
04:29but Daniels needs to be healthy.
04:31I want everyone talking about that all the time
04:34is how we're going to do that.
04:35Here's the plan.
04:35Here's what we're going to do.
04:36Now, they're not going to give away all the trade secrets,
04:39but I think there's a way to do that
04:40and emphasize it having to be the paradigm.
04:41I also think they're dramatically under-talented on offense.
04:43I think they swung and missed.
04:45They have the third most cap space in the sport
04:46and a quarterback on a rookie deal.
04:48I will beat this drum until it changes,
04:50and I don't see it changing
04:50because I don't know that they have the money
04:52or feel like spending the money.
04:53They're going to roll it over to not spend it next year, I guess.
04:56There's nobody to spend it on, really.
04:57Not right now.
04:59But again, who knows?
05:00Who knows what was available, what wasn't?
05:01Who knows what they turned down?
05:02Again, the example we saw was a trade for nothing
05:05from Michael Pittman,
05:06who would be a great No. 2 receiver here,
05:07and they had no interest in that
05:08or didn't win the bidding for that
05:09or weren't involved.
05:10We have no idea
05:11because that story's never come out.
05:13But yeah, I think the division's good,
05:15and it's getting better.
05:17The Giants are not pushovers,
05:18and even when they were,
05:19Washington had all kinds of trouble with them anyway,
05:21usually with Splitsville.
05:22So to me, this is a really, really uphill climb,
05:26and I don't know that they've got the firepower.
05:28So seven wins is generally about what
05:32a team coming off of a bad year
05:34that isn't expected to be that good.
05:37That's the safe place to be.
05:38That's where people should be predicting.
05:40Their win total projection in Vegas,
05:44among odds makers at Sportsbooks right now,
05:46is seven and a half wins, as an example.
05:49So that's kind of chalky.
05:50Not only that,
05:51but the majority of the league is in that range,
05:53like in that seven and ten range,
05:56if you're not very good.
05:57Because the old adage was,
05:57it's an eight and eight league.
05:58Exactly.
05:59And now it's probably become an eight and nine league.
06:01An 8.5 and 8.5 league.
06:02Right, or something like that.
06:04But yeah, so if you're predicting them
06:06to go four or five wins,
06:08you're really out on a limb.
06:09Even six wins, I would say.
06:11And the other direction,
06:11if you've got them at more than nine wins,
06:14you're probably on an island to some extent as well.
06:19Anything more than ten wins seems,
06:20to me, pretty Homer-ish,
06:23at least based on what we've seen.
06:24But in the same way that you can draw
06:26all of the things that you just did
06:28that lead to you feeling about seven wins,
06:29is a world where David Blau's sharp
06:32and does a really good job.
06:34Durante Jones improves the defense significantly
06:36with scheme,
06:37and they have better defensive personnel
06:38than they've had in some time.
06:41Jaden Daniels plays along the lines
06:42of what he did as a rookie.
06:44Just those three things right there,
06:46going well in the way that I just described them,
06:49that is now a nine-ish win team.
06:52So you make the field goal,
06:53the other team misses the field goal,
06:55and you get the ten wins.
06:56So it's not that hard to win ten games in this league.
07:00The difference between the seven and ten team,
07:02where you've got them,
07:03where most of these analysts have them,
07:05where the odds makers say they're going to be,
07:07and ten and seven is actually pretty microscopic.
07:10I think that's the big surprise.
07:12Yeah, we always talk about that.
07:13Maybe that's the thing that people
07:14don't necessarily understand.
07:15I actually heard someone talking about this recently,
07:18even in baseball,
07:20where they're like,
07:21you know, the difference between the team
07:22that wins 95 games
07:24and the team that wins like 71 games
07:27is way smaller than you think.
07:28You'd be surprised.
07:29Like, they're all big leaguers.
07:31And that's true.
07:32It's like six months,
07:33a win a week or something,
07:34and next thing you know,
07:35you're a very, very different ball game.
07:36Yeah, it's the Kevin Costner speech from Bull Durham.
07:38It's a flare a week.
07:39It's a, you know,
07:40ground ball with eyes per week,
07:41and you're a 300 hitter,
07:42and you're in Cooperstown,
07:43or you're an all-star,
07:44versus you get sent back down to the bus leagues.
07:46Yeah, I mean, you know,
07:48Easter references all the time,
07:49and some of those win streaks
07:50that Washington would have,
07:51the only times they would go to the postseason.
07:53It's a fumble recovered
07:56by the Ravens
07:57in a game that Washington wins
07:59where the left jersey sleeve
08:02of the shoulder of a Ravens player
08:05is out of bounds.
08:06He recovers the fumble,
08:07but that's out of bounds
08:08so Washington gets the ball.
08:09They win that game in overtime.
08:12The Raven has the ball.
08:13It's the game.
08:13That's it.
08:14Against Green Bay,
08:15there was a moment where,
08:17I can't remember,
08:17somebody drops an interception that year,
08:19and they end up winning the game.
08:21These moments where we go,
08:22oh, they won, they dominated.
08:23Not really.
08:24Like, individually.
08:25Like, if you're one of these teams
08:26that's in the muck,
08:27that's what I always call
08:28that kind of eight-and-eight soup,
08:29it's a field goal that goes in
08:31or it doesn't.
08:32It's the offsides that gets called or not,
08:34or the tip pass that you come down with
08:36that you don't,
08:36an interception that gets dropped
08:37that you don't.
08:38And everybody takes it so personally.
08:40Remember the vitriol,
08:41and dare I say,
08:43hatred,
08:43that we received
08:44when we said,
08:45hey, here's an objective article
08:47that tries to quantify
08:48good fortune and luck
08:49for a team.
08:50Look where Washington ranks.
08:51You're diminishing
08:52what they did in year one
08:53with Quinn and company.
08:55No, actually,
08:56the interceptions were dropped,
08:57and the other teams
08:59performed poorly against them
09:00in a number of
09:00easily quantifiable areas.
09:02Also not an indictment.
09:03Two things can be true.
09:04Of course not.
09:04They had a good season,
09:06and they got really lucky,
09:07and these areas of luck
09:08don't carry over
09:09and aren't sustainable,
09:10and guess what?
09:11They didn't.
09:12Yeah, in a major way.
09:13Maybe they rear their head
09:14again this year.
09:15Maybe you have injury luck.
09:17Maybe you have
09:17bounce of the football luck
09:19where you fumble nine times
09:20and you only lose one
09:21or something crazy like that.
09:23That kind of stuff happens.
09:24You just can't bank on it
09:25sustainably being on your side.
09:27But I bring up the predictions
09:30from the NFL media panel
09:34just because
09:36I think having seven different people
09:39look at this team
09:40and none of them
09:41having them making the playoffs
09:43and on top of that
09:45two saying
09:46this is a really bad team
09:48and then
09:49four
09:51suggesting
09:51they're below average.
09:53Only one team saying
09:54they're going to have
09:55a winning record
09:55or one person saying
09:56this team's going to have
09:57a winning record.
09:58It is a little bit of an
10:00ALS ice bucket challenge.
10:02You know,
10:03it is some cold water
10:04being dumped
10:04on your head
10:05as we get ready
10:06to go into the season
10:07with this roster
10:08that's pretty deep
10:09because
10:11maybe I'll be
10:12in the minority
10:12on this.
10:13I think
10:14if you have a
10:15losing record
10:16this year
10:17and eight and nine
10:18to me is like 500.
10:19I know that's
10:20by definition
10:21not true
10:21but to me
10:22that is the
10:22new version
10:23of going eight and eight.
10:24I'm not calling that
10:25a losing record
10:26but if they go
10:27seven and ten
10:28or worse
10:30I think we should
10:31be talking about
10:32significant changes
10:34possibly.
10:35I'd have to know
10:36what the next plan is
10:38and who the options are
10:39and what type of coaches
10:41they're interviewing
10:41and where they go.
10:43It's not me calling
10:44for Dan Quinn's head
10:45but in the National Football League
10:47you don't get forever
10:49and you shouldn't.
10:51Now,
10:51a general manager
10:52should get two coaches.
10:53A coach should get
10:54two quarterbacks
10:55if need be.
10:56They don't need to
10:57because I think they found
10:58their quarterback
10:58and so Dan Quinn has
10:59Jaden Daniels
11:00but especially men
11:02like you hit the lottery
11:03you got the rookie
11:04of the year
11:05who has a chance
11:06to flirt with some
11:07MVP consideration.
11:08I know that he was
11:09hurt last year
11:10but if he's hurt again
11:11this year
11:12well it's a different
11:12conversation.
11:13Now the guy that
11:14there were questions
11:15about being durable
11:16because of his frame
11:17coming out
11:17just isn't durable
11:18and we'll know that
11:19at year's end
11:20that maybe
11:20this is not
11:21sustainably something
11:22where you've got
11:23the 13 year player
11:24that's going to start
11:2515 plus games
11:26but if he does play
11:27then there's no good
11:28reason for the
11:29defensive minded coach
11:30with all the money spent
11:31and all the assets
11:32used on the defense
11:33to not be able
11:34to be a playoff caliber
11:35team three years in.
11:37I'm sorry.
11:37So the records
11:38that are being predicted
11:39here 7 and 10
11:41certainly 4 and 13
11:426 and 11
11:43those are not good enough.
11:45Like they better get
11:46to nine or more wins
11:48this year
11:48if Dan Quinn
11:51plans on being back here.
11:52Yeah if the operation
11:53is 6 yeah
11:54it like sort of looks
11:55like it's on the right track.
11:55Otherwise there's just
11:56real questions to ask
11:58about the pace
11:59with which
12:00they're
12:00I don't even want to say
12:02turning this thing around
12:02because they got to the
12:03NFC title game
12:04in year one
12:04but it will just feel like
12:07they're stuck in neutral.
12:08The further removed
12:09the flugier it looks
12:10right?
12:10I mean because right now
12:11they're at neutral
12:12they got back
12:13and zeroed out
12:13they went 12 and 5
12:14then 5 and 12
12:15my math isn't great
12:16but that's 17 and 17
12:17in the regular season
12:19and now you're
12:19starting anew
12:20right?
12:20And in theory
12:22what they did
12:23not even theory
12:23what they did
12:24is they went old
12:24first
12:25to try to establish
12:26some kind of winning culture
12:27at some point
12:28you can't just live that way
12:29as we talked about them
12:30but we said
12:31listen the ride's so fun
12:32we're not getting off
12:32they doubled down last year
12:34this is now time
12:35to get younger and faster
12:36and they've done that
12:37to a degree
12:37they still have
12:38plenty more work to do
12:39so the deposit
12:40that goes in this year
12:40matters to me
12:41so the only caveat
12:42I'll offer
12:43I don't disagree
12:44with anything you said
12:45the only caveat I'll offer
12:46is there still has to be
12:48some nuance in there
12:49in other words
12:49if they're losing
12:50by a point at Philly
12:51if they give the Rams
12:52all they can handle
12:53because again
12:53the schedule is ridiculous
12:54and I think people
12:55are even underrating it
12:58if Cincinnati turns out
12:59to be the truth
13:00when they're playing them
13:01in November
13:01because you want to play
13:02Cincinnati in September
13:03when they stink
13:04but if it's November Cincinnati
13:05and they're the division winner
13:07I think they're going to be
13:08and you lose
13:0940-39
13:10in a shootout
13:11to Joe Burrow
13:11who might be the MVP
13:13I'll go
13:14okay
13:14it's not what I wanted
13:15but it's better than losing
13:17by 100 points
13:17over 4 weeks
13:18which is what they just did
13:19I am team process
13:20over results
13:21of course
13:22the nuance
13:23and the contextualizing
13:25within the result
13:26is going to matter
13:27as much as anything else
13:28I'm just saying that
13:30if they win 7 games
13:32and it's not a
13:33at the end of the year
13:34you go
13:34like the Wizards
13:35just had a terrible year
13:36I was thrilled
13:37by everything they did
13:38the Nationals
13:39are probably going to
13:40end up finishing
13:41I would imagine
13:41in the mid to upper 70s
13:43and wins this year
13:44sniffing 500
13:45I'm going to be elated
13:47by it
13:47because of the context
13:48I don't necessarily
13:50have to have you
13:52just accomplish
13:53what you set out to
13:54if they're 7 and 10
13:56the problem for me is
13:59that like
14:00like it's hard for me
14:01to come up with a formula
14:02where the stuff
14:03that matters the most
14:04goes well
14:04and they finish
14:05with that record
14:07Jaden Daniels
14:08plays well
14:09and stays healthy
14:11then at 7 and 10
14:14your defense stunk
14:16and they bet
14:17so big on the defense
14:18this offseason
14:19you know what I'm saying
14:20yes I do
14:20you changed coordinators
14:22does the offensive scheme
14:24look good
14:25does the defensive scheme
14:27look good
14:28I just
14:29that's the problem
14:30for Dan Quinn
14:31I know what you're saying
14:32yes
14:33how they got there
14:34is going to matter
14:35but at that record
14:37the areas that are
14:38most important to him
14:40if
14:41the job being done
14:43is good enough
14:44to continue down this path
14:45you're probably not
14:477 and 10
14:47but yeah
14:48there's definitely
14:49a world where
14:49that's the record
14:50at the end of the year
14:51and I go
14:51you know what
14:52I think they just
14:52got to punch through
14:53this wall
14:53they're really close
14:54one more year
14:55they probably win
14:5611 games
14:56with a good offseason
14:57let's stick this thing out
14:59rather than starting over
15:00I definitely think
15:01I could get there
15:02but
15:02it's year 3
15:03I just want to keep
15:05reminding people
15:06the first year
15:07they won 12 games
15:09now that wasn't authentic
15:10but even
15:11let's say
15:12that was a 7 win
15:13or a 6 win
15:14first season
15:15if the second win
15:16you treaded water
15:17and were the same
15:17by the third year
15:19we should be raising
15:20the bar
15:20you've gotten rid of the old
15:22you've brought in yours
15:22and this is your vision now
15:24we talk about that
15:25a little bit in year 2
15:26you've turned the whole roster over
15:27exactly
15:28this is who you want to be
15:29and this is what you turn in
15:30how many offseasons
15:32do you need
15:32you know
15:33it's 3 free agencies
15:34it's 3 drafts
15:35you've already
15:36changed out coordinators
15:37I was told
15:38the best thing
15:39about hiring you
15:39was that you're the best
15:40at putting a staff together
15:41you told me
15:43by firing the last
15:44two guys you hired
15:45that you didn't put
15:45the best staff together
15:46okay
15:47hopefully you did this time
15:49but I'm curious
15:51to get your reaction
15:51on the phones
15:53at 800-636-1067
15:54to these predictions
15:56from the NFL
15:57media folks
15:59Colleen Wolfe
16:00and Nick Shook
16:00and Lance Zerline
16:01and Grant Gordon
16:02and the others
16:03Bucky Brooks
16:03from NFL Network
16:05and NFL.com
16:06none of them
16:07have the commanders
16:08at 10 plus wins
16:09the mean
16:11here is
16:12right around
16:137 wins
16:13and you got
16:142 of the 7
16:16prognosticators
16:17saying 6 or fewer wins
16:18is that just
16:20disrespect
16:21and a lack of credit
16:22based on a bad year
16:23last year
16:23and a bad track record
16:25over a long time
16:26from the national media
16:27or is that reasonable
16:29800-636-1067
16:31Grant and Daniel
16:32and Daniel
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