00:03On a cumulative basis for the next two years, we see our forecast be growth unchanged.
00:09But why do we have this, you know, slightly worse outlook for this year and better outlook for next year?
00:17If you would, it's like a V-shaped recovery, just a little bit deeper.
00:20Our assumptions are that we're going to see the peace deal and reopening of the straits starting in July and
00:30then normalization happening by early 2027.
00:34So this delayed recovery from the war, further longer disruptions and consequently higher on average commodity prices is part of
00:45the reason we have a larger impact of the war this year.
00:50Global outlook, recent performance, but also the outlook itself is being shaped by these two forces, war on the one
00:57hand and AI driven demand shock, the technology shock on the other hand.
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