00:00On a cumulative basis for the next two years, we see our forecast be broadly unchanged.
00:05But why do we have this, you know, slightly worse outlook for this year and better outlook for next year?
00:13If you would, it's like a V-shaped recovery, just a little bit deeper.
00:17Our assumptions are that we're going to see the peace deal and reopening of the strait starting in July
00:25and then normalization happening by early 2027.
00:30So this delayed recovery from the war, if you would, further longer disruptions
00:35and consequently higher on average commodity prices is part of the reason we have a larger impact of the war
00:45this year.
00:46Global outlook, recent performance, but also the outlook itself is being shaped by the two forces,
00:52war on the one hand and AI-driven demand shock, the technology shock on the other hand.
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