00:00Jamie Shea, the former NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary-General.
00:04Jamie, welcome back.
00:05President Trump's saying the ceasefire is over
00:08after the United States and Iran exchanged strikes overnight.
00:14What's your take now on where we are?
00:17Well, obviously, we're at a very difficult, risky moment
00:20where we seem to be drifting back towards war
00:22with all of the unpredictability,
00:25the closure of the Strader for Moos
00:26with oil prices which were going down, potentially going back up,
00:30economic problems and inflation,
00:33difficulties with fertiliser,
00:35all of those kind of scenarios that we were dealing with, Jamie,
00:38just a couple of weeks ago coming back.
00:40That's not a scenario which I think anybody in the NATO countries,
00:44including the United States itself,
00:46where the war is highly unpopular, particularly want to see.
00:49On the other hand, although President Trump has used some very strong rhetoric,
00:53of course, in Ankara, condemning Iran and saying the ceasefire is over
00:56and the memorandum of understanding is dead,
00:59we know that he has every incentive politically to want this war to end,
01:04to want to get into nuclear negotiations with Iran,
01:07to want to reopen the Strader for Moos.
01:09So maybe, you know, despite the intensity of the U.S. strikes overnight,
01:13maybe, you know, in a couple of days' time things will calm down
01:16and Tehran and Washington will go back to talking to each other.
01:19You're a NATO man of many years' experience.
01:22President Trump ordering the United States to cut off trade with Spain,
01:28calling it a terrible partner in NATO.
01:32What should we make of this?
01:35Well, there are some laggards, Jamie, quite frankly, in NATO
01:38when it comes to defence spending and meeting that 5% of GDP target,
01:42which is so dear to President Trump.
01:44Spain is not the only one.
01:46In fact, Spain is doing better at 2%, just slightly over of GDP,
01:51than countries like Albania or the Czech Republic or Slovenia,
01:54also NATO members, Jamie, but which are spending even less.
01:59The other thing is, if we look at things in the round,
02:02Spain recently did send a Patriot air defence battery to Turkey
02:07to protect Turkey, where the summit is being held,
02:10at a time when it was being threatened by Iran.
02:13The Spanish this week have agreed to provide some more money to Ukraine to buy weapons.
02:19So, you know, the Spanish would argue that maybe they're not the most enthusiastic ally,
02:22but they're certainly not the worst,
02:24and that they are doing things to show their solidarity with the rest of the alliance.
02:28But, of course, imposing trade sanctions on Spain alone, an EU member state,
02:33is not going to be easy, Jamie,
02:35because, of course, that's a matter for the EU here in Brussels,
02:38and the European Union will no doubt have its word to say on that to Washington.
02:43Trump says he's not happy with NATO, clearly,
02:46yet Mark Rutger, the NATO boss, reconfirms the country's commitment to the NATO alliance.
02:52I mean, to what extent, realistically, can NATO members go it alone
02:56if they end up finding themselves without America's support?
03:01Well, yes, indeed.
03:02And let's look at the NATO summit declaration when it's published.
03:05I know that this is not maybe the most fascinating topic for the press,
03:10but if the United States, officially in the NATO communisticate,
03:15says that its commitment to the defence of Europe is ironclad,
03:19and that's the language in the text,
03:21then, of course, that must mean something.
03:24And Trump has given his word on that ironclad security guarantee in the past.
03:29But we do also see, Jamie, at this summit in Ankara,
03:32increasing signs that Europe is getting its act together
03:35and preparing for a future, not without the US in Europe,
03:39but with the US doing far less in NATO.
03:41For example, you've seen all of these defence deals
03:44that Europeans and Canadians have been signing.
03:47You've been seeing the increasing European defence budgets.
03:50You've been seeing Europeans already backfilling with frigates
03:54and with aircraft, with drones,
03:58those capabilities that the US has said it's going to be withdrawing from NATO.
04:03So I think you see in Ankara, yes, the Europeans trying to placate Trump to please him,
04:08to keep as much US in NATO as they can.
04:11But at the same time, you're also seeing the emergence of this NATO 3.0,
04:17this new alliance, where the Europeans are taking an insurance policy
04:20on a non-American and European defence future.
04:23Jamie, good to see you.
04:25Jamie Shea, the former NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General.
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