00:00So Speaker Johnson said that he's going to send that bill to the White House today.
00:03And the reason why that's important is that it starts at 10-day clock.
00:07That President Trump can essentially have three choices.
00:09He can either sign the bill, he can veto the bill, or he can do nothing.
00:12And if he does nothing, that the bill then automatically becomes law.
00:16And I think that's where, you know, two of these scenarios are going to play out.
00:18He's either going to sign the bill or the bill is going to become law.
00:21I don't see that President Trump going to veto this bill because even though this bill,
00:25you know, he called it Senator Elizabeth Warren's bill,
00:28like you noted, it's overwhelmingly bipartisan and it gives both sides of the aisle
00:32the opportunity to go ahead of the midterms and say we care about affordability
00:36because that is the biggest driver of this bill is that it's an affordability housing bill.
00:41So that's why I think the bill ultimately becomes law.
00:42Well, Nathan, that argument was perfectly cogent,
00:45which is why I think I'm going to put some money down on he vetoes it.
00:50I mean, why wouldn't he? That's classic Trump.
00:54Well, so President Trump's real, you know, motivation here is to try and get Congress,
00:58like you said, passed the Save America Act.
01:00This is the bill that deals with citizen, you know, citizenship voting.
01:04He even said that just a few moments ago on True Social in response to the Supreme Court.
01:09Now, what I think ultimately happens here is that, you know,
01:11they're trying to get Save America Act through reconciliation.
01:14Long story short is it's not going to work.
01:16But if they try and get something tied to grants,
01:19and the idea here right now is that you offer $4 billion in grants to states
01:24to incentivize, to implement the Save America Act,
01:27that could be a pathway forward for essentially Speaker Johnson to say to the White House,
01:31look, we're doing what you've asked.
01:33We're doing it within the role of what we can get through Congress.
01:36Sign the bill.
01:37I think that's what President Trump will ultimately agree to.
01:40But we'll see.
01:40He can always veto it because nobody expected him last week to say
01:43that he wasn't going to sign it either.
01:46Okay, so here's my question about this housing bill.
01:49How effective is it?
01:50Because there's an affordability crisis in the country,
01:53and this is a federal bill, so it tries to do things at the federal level.
01:57But there's a, I mean, states have their own laws and regulations and rules.
02:01So does this bill, if it becomes law, really move the needle?
02:05So there's a short-term and there's a long-term aspect to this.
02:08From the short-term, if you're listening to us right now in New York City,
02:10is it going to decline the price of homes or make it more affordable?
02:14No, you're not really going to see much of a short-term impact on this.
02:17This is essentially just messaging from the short-term side.
02:20From the long-term side, it's incrementally better for the housing.
02:24You know, we've done some analysis.
02:25Call it 1% to 3% growth in terms of new homes.
02:28Long story, you know, talking about the next three to five years.
02:31But you're really looking at markets like Austin, Texas, or Birmingham, Alabama,
02:35rather than New York City or Washington, D.C.
02:38At the end of the day, this bill was mostly from the investment side,
02:41talking about negatives, there was some original language in here
02:44that would actually sort of make the bill to rent communities unfeasible going forward.
02:48That was scary for some of the single-named single-family home REITs out there,
02:52like Invitation Homes and AMH.
02:53But ultimately, there's so many exemptions in this bill,
02:56you know, that really scary headline isn't really all that much of an impact for them.
03:00We're going to get to the end of the day.
03:00We're going to get to the end of the day.
03:00You
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