00:00You have growth well above trend, you have a labor market that's accelerating, and you have inflation around 3%.
00:05That makes it, we'd argue, quite difficult not to unwind the insurance cuts which were delivered last year through three
00:12rate hikes starting in December back to back to back.
00:14The ECB, we would argue at a minimum, is going to hike twice, June and September, for inflation.
00:20Then if growth actually proves quite resilient in the eurozone, it's possible that they deliver more than two hikes.
00:26But it would be a central case, a little bit less than the market's pricing today, that we just get
00:31to June and September, as you say, predominantly because they're concerned about a de-anchoring of inflation expectations given what's
00:37happened in the energy market.
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