00:00Hello, it's the first 10-day trend of June. There's not much flaming about this forecast.
00:06There is quite a bit of rain involved, however. If we start with a look at the big picture
00:10and the fast-moving ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere, the jet stream. It's in a fairly
00:16classic position, but maybe not for June. This is a fairly typical position, perhaps for winter or
00:22for autumn. It's quite south-shifted for the summer months, and it's certainly fairly active
00:27for this time of year as well. It's pushing along low-pressure systems, this one dominating our
00:33weather for the next couple of days. This one will control our weather as we head into the early part
00:39of next week. But in between times, the low pressure that's going to have most of our attention is this
00:45one forming off the coast of North America and intensifying as it relates and interacts with
00:51that jet stream, particularly as we head through Thursday and into Friday. It crosses over the jet
00:56stream and interacts with what we call the left exit part of this jet streak and intensifies
01:02during Thursday and the first part of Friday. The crucial time then, through Friday and into
01:08Saturday, as it approaches the UK, kind of disengages a little bit with the jet stream,
01:13which means it perhaps won't be as intense as it comes across the UK as some of the models were
01:18suggesting it could be just a couple of days ago. Nevertheless, it is still likely to bring us
01:22a spell of wet and windy weather as we go through the weekend. After that, as I said, all eyes
01:29actually
01:30on this area of low pressure, which is currently sitting between Iceland and Greenland. It doesn't
01:34really interact with the jet stream as much. It just gradually kind of gets pushed along in the flow
01:40behind this weather system as we go towards Monday. More on that a little bit later on. Before both of
01:48those
01:48low pressure systems arrive, we've got another one for Thursday. Dominating the scene, plenty of isobars
01:54on the chart, suggesting it's going to be unseasonably windy once more. In fact, Thursday's
02:00weather fairly similar to Tuesday's weather. Close to the low, so across Scotland, the isobars are more
02:06spaced out. So here the winds will be lighter, which means the showers will be slow moving, whereas
02:10further south, the showers will be zipping through on a brisk wind. And it's here where they're likely to be
02:15quite intense with hail and thunder mixed in, but they will zip through. Whereas with the slow moving
02:21showers across central and northern Scotland, we could see the rainfall totals being higher, even
02:26though they won't be as intense just because there'll be more slow moving. It's staying showery as we head
02:32into Friday, but not as many showers. A better chance of a drier day, and certainly parts of the east
02:38may not see many showers at all. So it could be completely dry here and further west, although there will
02:42be some showers and a brisk and cool breeze. Well, there won't be the same intensity to the showers
02:49as there will be on Thursday, and there'll be longer, drier and brighter smells to be had as well.
02:55That's thanks to this weak-looking ridge of high pressure that's trying to come in as we go through
03:01the course of Friday. Following on in the footsteps of that is that low pressure we saw earlier. As I
03:06said,
03:06details really dependent on its exact interaction with the jet stream as we approach Friday and into
03:13Saturday, because it could still be quite a potent low as it comes in. Quite a lot of isobars packed
03:18in there, particularly its southern flank, so in western parts of the UK, as we go through Friday
03:23night and into Saturday. And these weather fronts will also be bringing spells of rain. But the fact
03:28that it's a little bit more detached from the jet stream now suggests it might not be as intense,
03:34as I say, some of the models were suggesting just a couple of days ago. Now, that's the Met Office
03:40main model projection for Saturday. But if you watch the 10-day trend often enough or know much
03:47about meteorology, you'll know that's not necessarily how we do a lot of our medium-range weather
03:51forecasting. We use these. We use ensembles. These are the posted stamps where you run the computer
03:56model many, many times with slightly tweaked initial conditions. Now, this is a bit small,
04:04so let's zoom in a little bit. Just going to show you, highlight the differences. Some of the models,
04:08like number 23, actually have quite a deep area of low pressure here, whereas others, say number 13,
04:15they're kind of breaking up into two areas of low pressure and don't have the same pattern. So there's
04:19a bit of uncertainty as we head into the weekend. This is the European ensemble projection. And the
04:26European model is slightly different to the Met Office one. Another way of looking at this, this is
04:30plotting all of those ensemble members as individual spots. And the colour of the spot represents how
04:38intense the low is, how deep that area of low pressure is. And you can see the slightly less deep
04:43ones with the central pressure over a thousand. Hectapascals or millibars are a little, generally,
04:47a little further south. And the slightly more intense ones, the more turquoise colours are a
04:53little bit further north and west. So again, depending on the exact interaction with that jet
04:58stream will determine just how deep that area of low pressure is. There's a closer view of it,
05:04almost the European model kind of splitting it into two areas, almost. So perhaps without one area of
05:10intensity, but nevertheless, still likely to bring some wet and windy weather into the weekend.
05:16One of the crucial factors for the weekend will be the strength of the wind. And this plot is the
05:22probability of winds over 40 knots or 46 miles an hour on Saturday morning. You can see that the highest
05:27chance of those stronger winds are likely across the South Republic of Ireland into South Wales and
05:34southwest England. 46 miles an hour, nothing exceptional, but it is quite unusual for this time of year.
05:40And with a lot of events going on on Saturday, it's Saturday in June. So yeah, that could cause
05:46some issues. So it's certainly something that we need to keep a close eye on at this stage. But a
05:50lot, again,
05:51will depend on the exact interaction and where that low pressure is sitting. So if you do have plans for
05:57Saturday, particularly if wind could impact them, then you want to keep up to date with the forecast. So yes,
06:03there will be some gusty winds around through the course of Saturday, and there will also be some
06:08rain. This is showing the 24-hour rainfall accumulations as we go through Saturday. Notice
06:13it's highlighting western areas, and particularly hills, the hills of western Scotland, northwest
06:17England, and parts of Wales. Again, the hillier ground, but also northern Ireland, likely to bear the
06:22brunt as that weather system comes in with rainfall. If we move through the 24-hour rainfall totals of
06:28Sunday, you can also see again, highlighting this area, southwest Scotland, northwest England,
06:35perhaps parts of north Wales, with the rainfall totals building up over the hills, especially here.
06:40But if those two rainfall events Saturday and Sunday coincide in this area, then that could amount
06:46to quite a bit of rain falling through the weekend. So as well as the winds, that is another area
06:50we need
06:51to keep a close eye on. Again, that's the Met Office projection, and not all the models are agreeing.
06:56This is now showing something similar. The rainfall totals building up through the whole weekend
07:01with the American model here, European ECMWF model here. These are kind of in alignment,
07:07showing that, again, western areas seeing the most in terms of rainfall, but they're not really
07:11showing the same amount of the peak, really, that the Met Office model is showing, which is kind of
07:16perhaps a worst-case scenario in that zone across north Wales, the hills of northwest England,
07:22and southwest Scotland. But again, highlighting the same areas that western areas likely to see the
07:28heaviest and most persistent rain through the weekend. So there's that low clearing away from
07:32Saturday. But then another little feature comes in on Sunday. And again, its interaction with the
07:37jet stream will be crucial as to how much rain we see. But we could see, again, fair bits coming
07:43in
07:44across northwest England and parts of north Wales, depending, again, on that exact interaction with
07:49the jet stream. So what do we know about the weekend? Likely to stay on the cool side with,
07:53at times, some gusty winds. Unusually gusty for June, certainly. There will be spells of rain
07:59crossing the country with the driest weather in the east and the heaviest rain in more western parts.
08:06What about as we head into next week? Well, still low pressure on the scene. So we are likely to
08:11see
08:11further spells of wet and windy weather. High pressure is trying to topple in on Monday's chart
08:15across parts of the south. But this low also packing the isobar, suggesting some quite windy
08:21conditions across northern Scotland. Remember, though, this one is coming from a different
08:25source. This one is coming from further north. So it's kind of forming in the cooler air over the
08:32next few days. Whereas the one that's coming in for Saturday has much warmer air tied into it
08:38because it's coming from much further south. So this one is a cooler air feature and it's not
08:43interacting. It's not developing in the same way. It's not as close to the jet stream. The jet is
08:48just kind of nudging it in as we go towards Monday. So a different beast in many ways, but still
08:54likely
08:54to be bringing some wet and windy conditions across Scotland, parts of northern Ireland. The jet stream
09:00by this stage has dipped a bit further south, not as strong as it is at the moment. But nevertheless,
09:06potential for another interaction with another low here, which is likely to move up across the country
09:12as we go through the middle of next week. Here's the probability plot for the different flavors of
09:18weather and how likely they are as we go through next week, dominated by the Manchester City blue,
09:25which is southwesterly dominated. It means low pressure systems coming in generally from the
09:30Atlantic. Now, a couple of days ago, there were stronger signals for some higher pressure. And as we
09:37go towards the end of next week, well, there are some oranges on the chart suggesting that high pressure
09:41might be closer. There's certainly a chance of it, but it's still not the most likely scenario that is
09:47still most likely to be dominated by southwesterly winds and more cyclonic weather patterns or low
09:53pressure systems. So for Tuesday, this is the most likely weather pattern with low sitting somewhere
09:58out to the west. With a southwesterly wind, it does mean eastern areas get a bit of brightness,
10:03often a bit warmer than average, but not far behind. The second and third most likely scenarios,
10:10keeping things generally on the cool side. Wednesday, again, the pressure patterns are
10:15quite similar, generally dominated by low pressure and southwesterly winds. As we head towards the
10:20end of the week, well, there are some signs, particularly the second most likely and the
10:26third most likely, that higher pressure could start to influence things. And that might just lift
10:31the temperatures, particularly if the high locates itself to the east, and that could waft up some
10:36warmer air. But yes, at this stage, that is just a possibility, as we saw earlier, more likely overall
10:44that the southwesterly will dictate what goes on. So overall, next week likely to stay changeable and
10:50cool. Certainly for the first half of the week, there'll be further spells of showery rain whizzing
10:55across the country on those brisk winds. But perhaps that's all it is at this stage, something a bit
11:01drier and warmer towards the end of next week. As always, for the day to day details, make sure you
11:08stay up to date with everything from the Met Office by following us across social media. And if you
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