00:00Kirk Cousins is the favorite to be the Week 1 starter at minus 200.
00:05Fernando Mendoza, the number one overall pick this past April, is at plus 168.
00:11They are listing any other QB at 20-1.
00:16I don't even know what would have to happen for a third person to be the quarterback for Las Vegas.
00:23Joe, are you surprised to see Cousins at minus 200 for the Week 1 starting job?
00:32No, it's sort of right.
00:33I want to say a little bit similar to the market that we saw with AR and Daniel Jones last
00:38year.
00:38What was Daniel Jones, I think at one point, was plus 150, 160 in the market.
00:44I could be wrong. Maybe he was plus 185 at one point.
00:47But you have a veteran. You don't, to your point, have to rush Fernando Mendoza.
00:52Even though we believe he is going to be the face of the franchise with Clint Kubiak and that team,
00:58you have the ability to have a similar situation to what we saw with Russell Wilson and Jackson Dart last
01:05year, right?
01:06Russell Wilson starts, let's say, a handful of games after he tops out or the offense sputters
01:12or at least doesn't win games the way the coach and, let's say, fan base believe,
01:19then you go on to the younger quarterback.
01:21Again, I don't think maybe having Mendoza sit for two or three games in the month of September is all
01:28that bad.
01:29What I do believe is if Kubiak were to roll the dice with Cousins and then stay with him through
01:36October into November,
01:38I think that would be a disservice to him because you want to get this team ready for year number
01:44two.
01:44So, again, I think it would be a small window that Kirk Cousins potentially starts.
01:49You understand the preparation needed to attack maybe an NFL game a little bit different than college,
01:56and we've seen Mendoza be prepared, and what better pro then to learn from than Kirk Cousins,
02:03a locker room type of guy.
02:04But I think you run that gray area, Kevin, of does Kubiak then all of a sudden win some games
02:10and say he doesn't want to relinquish the reins to Mendoza midseason?
02:16That would be a problem.
02:19So this is probably of the five we are going to discuss today, the one I'm most interested in betting.
02:27I talked to you, Joe.
02:30Yeah.
02:30So we talked about the season-long numbers on Fernando Mendoza, I guess, what would have been a week ago
02:38at this point.
02:38And those Mendoza numbers were, you could tell, he was going to have to play a lot of the season
02:51in order to get close, to have any type of chance.
02:57And those numbers have moved quite a bit, actually.
03:00So at the time it was $2,700 and a half, same exact book, it's now $2,350 and a
03:10half.
03:10So clearly just taking a ton of ton of money on that under.
03:16And, you know, if you're holding that under, perhaps then, maybe they didn't even take money.
03:22Maybe they kind of themselves realized they were too, you know,
03:26they were kind of positioned in a way that needed Mendoza to actually, like, hit the over.
03:30And I'm not sure that's what they wanted.
03:32They've adjusted it nevertheless.
03:33I mean, that's a significant amount they've chopped off.
03:36They've chopped 350 yards off of the price already.
03:42The reason, though, that I'm not, as someone who is really considering that under, Joe,
03:47kicking myself for not betting it, is you're betting a minus 114 in April,
03:54and you do not get paid.
03:57They're not going to, like, do the math on it for you, right?
03:59Where you're like, look, he's going to have to throw for, like, 390 yards a game.
04:03Like, you're not getting paid until the season ends, flatly.
04:06So you're talking about, you know, end or early to mid-January
04:12when you were to get that back, where if Mendoza's the week one starter,
04:20you don't like that bet as much.
04:21So you go Cousins at minus 200, but you're getting paid out as soon as that game kicks off.
04:28First game of the Raiders season, if Kirk Cousins takes that snap, you're getting paid.
04:33And, Joe, if Kirk Cousins isn't the week one starter,
04:39I would have to imagine it was injury.
04:42They've talked about the idea of Mendoza not playing the entire season.
04:45Maybe that's ridiculous, but it would be equally ridiculous to say that
04:51and then start him week one if you want to bring –
04:55he's supposed to be the youngest week one starting quarterback.
04:58You want to bring him along slowly.
05:00You would make the decision to bring Kirk Cousins in.
05:02And this is the main thing I come back to, Joe.
05:05Is there any world Kirk Cousins agreed to come here without a promise
05:09that he was going to be given the job to start the season?
05:12I can't imagine that.
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