00:00Supposing a deal is struck today to end the conflict, how long would it take for
00:05markets to stabilize from the point of signature of that deal? Are we talking
00:09weeks, months? Well, certainly it's not going to come overnight. First, there are
00:16more than 400 ships that are trapped in the strait over the past three months.
00:23So, we've lost something like a billion barrels of oil over the past also, if you count all
00:31the disruption over the past several weeks and months. In fact, the shut-ins that the
00:37Gulf and Iraq have seen are unprecedented. So, in Iraq, for example, and in Kuwait, exports
00:44have in fact dropped to a very low, significant level. The production, in fact, many of these
00:50countries have also seen no exports at all. The IEA estimates something like six months
00:55for fields to come back to production levels before the crisis. But it's not just the oil
01:03fields, but also the energy installations that have seen terrorist attacks in various countries.
01:10So, for example, in Qatar, the LNG capacity has been lost by something like 17 percent.
01:16And that is going to take perhaps five years to install that lost LNG capacity, also in
01:22many energy installations in Saudi Arabia and many other countries. In fact, these installations
01:29are also essential to process crude once it is produced and make it ready to be exported.
01:34So, I think we're going to need at least three to six months for fields to come back to normal,
01:40and a few years for the GCC to install its normal export level that we have seen before the crisis.
01:47So,æ´»o keep looking for and over the most recent work, as well.
01:48I am trying to Starsorter and Queenen tomorrow, and go back to Miriam Nation.
01:50And thank you very much for working with us!
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