00:00This war is for the long haul.
00:02Russia is not interested in getting Donbas.
00:05It is a trap.
00:07The ultimate goal of Putin is to take over an entire Ukraine.
00:13It's a sham talks.
00:15It's a KGB special operation.
00:17Ukraine is back in the headlines here in Europe
00:20after weeks in which Iran was dominating all the attention.
00:23The Druzeba pipeline that takes Russian oil to the EU through Ukraine
00:26is back in action after weeks in which it was not functioning.
00:30We've just had news that that €90 billion loan
00:33that the EU has been promising Ukraine for so long
00:35is finally on its way.
00:36And finally, and perhaps most memorably,
00:38the New York Times just came out with a story
00:40alleging that the Ukrainian negotiating team
00:43had offered the American side
00:44to rename the bits of Donbas of eastern Ukraine
00:47that Ukraine controls Donnyland after Donald Trump
00:50in desperate attempt to try and get a bit of buy-in,
00:53a bit of investment from the American side in Ukraine's success.
00:57We're here at the Kyiv Security Forum
00:59and we're going to be talking to Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
01:01He was Ukraine's Prime Minister from 2014 to 2016,
01:05so just after Russia's annexation of Crimea.
01:08And we're going to be asking him whether he worries
01:10that Europe now might throw Ukraine and its interests under the bus,
01:13that it might try and do some kind of deals with Russia
01:16to try and lower energy prices.
01:18We'll also be asking him about the importance of those €90 billion,
01:21whether that really means that Ukraine is out of danger financially.
01:24And finally, we will also be asking his opinion
01:27on that curious New York Times story.
01:29So my first question was about oil.
01:32So Ukraine restarted Druzhbo pipeline yesterday, right?
01:35And we believe that that oil is now flowing to Hungary and Slovakia.
01:39We understand there was a lot of European pressure on Ukraine
01:42to restart that pipeline.
01:43At the same time as Europe is saying,
01:45we want to get away from Russian energy,
01:47we're going to put sanctions on Russian energy coming by ship.
01:50What do you think?
01:51Would you have advised President Zelensky to refuse
01:54and say, no, Druzhbo is going to just stay shut?
01:56Look, let's be frank.
01:58It was a kind of Bergen and Chip,
02:01mainly imposed by Slovakia and Hungary.
02:04If you don't launch, relaunch Druzhbo,
02:07we won't leave the veto on $90 billion loan for Ukraine.
02:12Whether this is right, no, it's completely wrong.
02:16But under current circumstances,
02:19Ukraine needs to get this financial package.
02:22Because this gives us a breathing space
02:26for at least another two years.
02:29And this sends a very clear signal to Putin
02:31that Europe stands by Ukraine.
02:36Europe has done a tremendous job in winning itself
02:39on the dependence of Russian oil and gas.
02:43But they have to accomplish this job.
02:45In 2014, as a Prime Minister of Ukraine,
02:48I was the first one who went after Russian Gazprom.
02:52And we succeeded.
02:53We showed to the entire world that it's doable.
02:57You can be independent out of Russia's hydrocarbs.
03:02So Europe has to accomplish this.
03:08Europe has to stop financing Russia's war chest.
03:12And it's right now in the hands of both European Union
03:15and national governments like Slovakia and Hungary.
03:19But are you worried right now with oil prices
03:21going through the roof in Europe
03:22that some more European governments
03:24might be tempted to go back to Russian energy
03:26because of the prices,
03:27because of the pressure from their populations?
03:29Well, look at the root cause of this price spike.
03:33This is the war of the U.S. and Israel against Iran.
03:37And Russians got a kind of windfall.
03:40It's a huge benefit for Russia.
03:42But I hope it's a temporary.
03:44So let's pray, fingers crossed.
03:52If Europe wants to go back to the old days
03:58and be a hostage of Russia,
04:02so they have to relaunch all this.
04:05Druzhba, pipelines, whatever.
04:07Nord Stream 1, Nord Stream 2, Nord Stream 32.
04:12But we know where it brings us.
04:15Because for Russia, energy is no longer a commodity.
04:22It's a weapon similar to nukes.
04:26This is the way to corrupt national governments
04:29in the European Union.
04:31This is the way to control national governments
04:35in the European Union.
04:37How long do you think Russia can fight?
04:39I mean, now we've had this windfall, as you mentioned.
04:42Previously, it seemed like the Russian budget
04:43was coming under pressure
04:44and they were having to tax the population more.
04:47How long can they fight?
04:48And what will it take to really change the mood in Russia?
04:51Because right now, it seems like for lots of people
04:53in Moscow and Petersburg,
04:54this is a war that's far away,
04:55that doesn't affect them.
04:58I am not in the position to underestimate Russians.
05:03So they still have resources.
05:05They still have big human power.
05:08They still have military-industrial complex.
05:12And they still have a number of allies.
05:15And the key ally of Russia is China,
05:18which provides a bloodline to Russia
05:23and finance, actually, the war chest of Russia.
05:28There were different, I would say,
05:34estimations on how long Russia can sustain this war.
05:39That's true that Russians gained a lot from the war in Iran.
05:44But the truth is that Russia is the economy in the dire straits.
05:48This is the truth.
05:50President Zelenskyy calls Ukrainian drone attacks
05:52on Russian oil facilities long-range sanctions.
05:54We saw, to upset recently,
05:57an attack that even the Russian authorities said was massive.
05:59Normally, they try and downplay the effect.
06:01Do you think Ukraine now is going to come under a lot more pressure
06:04to stop these attacks, to avoid a price spike?
06:11How on earth Ukraine could stop defending itself?
06:17It's a piece of the puzzle.
06:19It is a part of Ukraine's military strategy.
06:22And that's what the chief of staff of President Zelenskyy
06:26just said at the Kyiv security conference.
06:28He was very vocal and he was very clear saying that we will target Russian military
06:38and quasi-military facilities, including the energy sector.
06:42And you think that's worth risking a conflict with Ukraine's Western backers for?
06:50Well, there is no way to back Ukraine on the one hand.
06:57And on the other hand, to have Ukrainian's hand tied behind the back.
07:04And actually, to limit Ukraine and to impose any kind of restrictions
07:09on Ukraine's defense and on Ukraine's ability to target Russian military
07:14and quasi-military assets in Russia.
07:17This is the war.
07:20So we're talking about Russia's ability to wage this war, Russia's resources.
07:23If you go back to the Ukrainian side, now we've had the promise of these 90 billion.
07:28How much of a difference does that actually make?
07:30Does that mean Ukraine is now out of the woods, you know,
07:33out of danger financially for the next year or two?
07:36Or is this just a first step?
07:40Well, in order to win the war, we need, first,
07:43to have a very strong morale.
07:48Second, to have strong military.
07:51Third, to get an ammo from NATO, from Americans and from the Europeans.
07:58And fourth, to get a financial support.
08:01Because you can't win the war without the resources and mainly financial one.
08:09The thing that Europeans decided to provide this 90 billion dollar loan is a very important,
08:20it's a milestone step for Ukraine.
08:22Because this gives us another two years, at least another two years, to prosecute the war.
08:28And I hope, in the end, to win this war.
08:31You mentioned another two years of war, potentially.
08:34It's something that Ukraine can now finance, thanks to these 90 billion.
08:38Where are the peace talks right now?
08:40We had the New York Times reporting recently this Ukrainian suggestion, supposedly,
08:45to call part of Ukrainian Donbass Donnyland.
08:46And is that just a signal?
08:48Does that just show us how unserious these talks are?
08:51That basically no one's really paying attention and that they're trying to signal to us that this is just a
08:55placeholder?
08:56Well, here is my take on these so-called peace talks.
09:00It has nothing to do with the real peace.
09:02It's a sham talks.
09:04It's a KGB special operation in order to drag us into a never-ending talks,
09:09while Russia is pummeling Ukraine, launching the salvos of missiles and drones,
09:16trying to make some kind of incremental games on the battlefield,
09:22trying to undermine the unity inside the European Union,
09:26and trying to make some kind of fissures between Americans and Europeans.
09:31So, never trust the KGB operatives like Putin.
09:40You were Prime Minister at a time when talks were happening in Minsk,
09:42back after the annexation of Crimea.
09:45Could you imagine that negotiators were talking about this,
09:48or do you think this is just a joke that the reporters misunderstood?
09:51I mean, was this the kind of tone of the talks back in Minsk?
09:55You should ask New York Times, but in my humble opinion,
10:00there is no way that Ukraine will cede the land.
10:03And let me put it very bluntly.
10:06Russia is not interested in getting Donbas.
10:12It is a trap.
10:13The ultimate goal of Putin is to take over an entire Ukraine.
10:21And even in case if we, well, theoretically,
10:26elaborate on an idea of some kind of land concessions,
10:31which I strongly oppose, just trust me,
10:34the next step of Putin would be no NATO, no Ukrainian military,
10:39no Ukrainian state, no Ukrainian language,
10:41and actually a complete and full surrender of Ukraine.
10:47Which would never happen.
10:52There are lots of American guests here at this forum.
10:56What's the sense you get talking to them off the camera in private?
11:00Is Ukraine still going to get the weapons that Europe is paying for through Pearl?
11:04Are those Patriot interceptors still going to come?
11:07Or is Ukraine now at the end of the queue behind Qatar,
11:09behind Saudi, behind all these other countries?
11:12Are we going to live in a reality here in Kyiv
11:13where ballistic missiles don't get shot down anymore?
11:15I believe that you've seen the reports that Americans exhausted
11:22both air defense systems and its military depots.
11:28That's true.
11:29And I'm really concerned whether Americans will execute
11:34already committed and prepaid deals with the NATO,
11:40and whether Americans would be able to deliver what is needed
11:44for the defense of Ukraine.
11:47I hope that we will get what is needed.
11:54And Europeans have to shift the gear and to scale up its production too.
12:02So right now we are in a completely, I would say, peculiar situation on the one hand.
12:10But on the other hand, look, the contracts have been signed.
12:16They have been prepaid.
12:22And around 80% of American people still support Ukraine.
12:28And this U.S. administration have to take this into account.
12:32I just wanted your sense of where we are in this war, right?
12:35This is obviously the open question of this conference.
12:37Are we at the beginning of the end?
12:39Are we at the end of the beginning?
12:40Is this a war that Ukraine has to prepare to fight for as long as it can go on?
12:46This war is for the long haul.
12:49And I said it three years ago, actually four years ago,
12:53when everyone believed that there is a light in the end of the tunnel in a few days.
12:58This is the war of attrition.
13:00This is a grinding war.
13:03And the only way to win the peace
13:08is to provide everything that is needed for Ukraine to win this war.
13:13Starting with the bullets and then with the air defense systems.
13:17Starting with the sanctions and then with the enormous pressure on Russia and China.
13:25I don't have a crystal ball.
13:29But I have my convictions.
13:35And I believe that we will win this war.
13:40We will save Ukraine.
13:42And the time will come when Ukraine is to become the NATO and EU member.
13:47It is for the long haul.
13:49It is a very bumpy and bloody road.
13:53But we will accomplish this mission.
13:57Thank you for your time.
13:58Thank you, sir.
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