00:00A United States military invasion of Greenland, a Danish territory, could have major consequences for NATO, of which Denmark is a founding member.
00:09Jamie Shea is a former NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General.
00:13Jamie, welcome back. We'll talk about Greenland in just a moment, but at the risk of putting you on the spot,
00:18I just want your reaction on the US forces reported to have seized this Russian-flagged oil tanker in the North Atlantic.
00:26Yes, absolutely. Well, the United States has made it clear that it wants to clamp down on Venezuela's oil traffic.
00:33It's been doing this, of course, off the coast of Venezuela, but it's not surprising that the United States should now go further into the Atlantic.
00:41It's interesting that this is a tanker which has just in recent days been re-flagged under Russian ownership,
00:46and the Russians have apparently not only sent a submarine but some vessels to escort it.
00:51So it's going to be very interesting, Jamie, to see how Moscow reacts as a result of this US seizure,
00:57and if it sort of makes relations between Moscow and Washington worse at a time, of course,
01:03when the Europeans are very much hoping that Trump will swing back behind Ukraine and a Europe-Ukraine-US peace plan
01:12that was discussed yesterday in Paris and be prepared to put more pressure on Putin.
01:16So I think it's very interesting, not so much from the Venezuelan aspect, but from the aspects of future US-Russia relations.
01:24Let's talk about Greenland, when United States officials say military action over Greenland is always an option.
01:30Is that a serious strategy or is that just rhetoric?
01:35I don't think it can be more than rhetoric, although you never know, of course, with this administration,
01:41and you have to take it seriously.
01:43But US military action, to my mind, Jamie, doesn't really make sense.
01:47I mean, the US already has the right to station military forces in Greenland
01:51under a bilateral Denmark-US defence agreement going back several years.
01:57The US used to have 17 military bases and facilities in Greenland during the Cold War,
02:04and it wasn't Denmark that asked the United States to reduce them.
02:07The US decided to do that unilaterally, and Denmark has always been clear.
02:11If the US wants to put more military forces into Greenland,
02:14then Denmark and the NATO allies have absolutely no objection to that.
02:18All the more so, as under the NATO treaty, Jamie,
02:21the United States already has a military obligation under the Article 5 collective defence agreement
02:28to defend Greenland, which is part of NATO territory.
02:31So it really is, as we used to say where I come from,
02:34taking coals to Newcastle in lacking a military rationale.
02:38What would the US exactly occupy?
02:40Greenland is 80% ice, and we're not talking about Venezuela,
02:44where you need military forces to get rid of the dictator or to clamp down on a drug gang.
02:50Greenland is part of the NATO alliance and poses absolutely no military threat to the US,
02:56which would justify military action.
02:58I guess unpredictability is the new predictability.
03:01Does the Venezuela action change how Europe should read US intentions in the Arctic?
03:10Well, it has done already, as you can see from the quite vigorous reaction,
03:14the statement signed by many European leaders in support of Denmark,
03:19in support of Danish sovereignty, asking international law to be upheld,
03:23which was issued from Paris yesterday.
03:25So certainly the tone of urgency, even alarm in European capitals has gone up.
03:30Another statement by the Nordics, nothing can be ruled out.
03:35But I think it also will prompt the Europeans in the next few days to offer Trump alternative scenarios.
03:41I mean, we've had Secretary of State Rubio say that the US is not preparing a military option,
03:47but would like to buy Greenland.
03:49Your correspondent referred to that earlier.
03:51And the Europeans can come forward with proposals of their own
03:54for joint US-European investments in Greenland,
03:57for greater European participation in Greenland's defence.
04:00After all, Jamie, the US is always saying to the Europeans
04:04that you must do more for our common defence.
04:06And so Europe can put Trump on the spot by saying, fine, Mr. Trump,
04:10we'll be prepared to do that by helping you share responsibility for the defence of Greenland,
04:16and we'll show that we're carrying more of the common burden.
04:18So there are counter-strategies which the Europeans can deploy and need to deploy in coming days.
04:23You were a NATO man.
04:26What does all of this mean for the future of NATO?
04:29Well, it's obviously not good news.
04:33Clearly, you know, NATO is not about one member attacking another member.
04:37The United States, under the NATO treaty,
04:39has a responsibility to defend Danish sovereignty
04:42and to defend Denmark and not try to undermine it.
04:46So the United States would be breaking its most sacred NATO commitments.
04:50And even if the US does not move on Greenland,
04:53at least in a military sense,
04:54all of this talk, of course, does rattle NATO, undermines NATO,
04:58gives President Putin the impression that he's dealing with an increasingly dysfunctional
05:02and divided alliance.
05:04And frankly, it's all the more unnecessary and unhelpful
05:08just coming the same day as Steve Wyckoff and Jared Kushner,
05:14US envoys, are in Paris with Europe and Zelensky
05:17agreeing to US security commitments to Ukraine, which helps NATO.
05:23So it really is a sort of, you know, one day you gain on the swings,
05:27next day you lose on the roundabouts, rather incoherent strategy.
05:31Let's hope that the Paris meeting, where the US and Europe are working together,
05:37prevails over all of this unhelpful rhetoric about military actions against Greenland.
05:41Jamie, good to see you.
05:42Jamie Shea, former NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General.
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